ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Ed Mahmoud]

Getting beneficial rain bands into SE North Carolina. I guess this probably doesn't do much for the Western half of the state, but I'm still guessing even as a minimal Category 1, assuming people are smart about boating and beach activities so nobody gets hurt who doesn't need to, Cristobal will be a net plus for North Carolina, even with a lost day of tourism revenue and minor beach erosion.



I see the half full glass, I guess.

[cpdaman]

At the current height, 45 kt seems to be correct with the 58 kt FL winds.

uh... no

look at the SFMR winds. Nothing higher than 35KT

well considering the nhc did not use the sfmr winds when they upgraded. since they were showing much lower winds.. I dont think they are putting to much faith in them at the moment and should continue to go with the standard reduction.

i did not see any SFMR winds when they upgraded all it said was "999" during that time, so that doesn't mean they were also showing much lower winds (then)

[cpdaman]

also the convection is practically non existent. I know it's listed at 40 knots now, but really this thing is getting suffocated by dry air to it's north and it's west. how can anyone think this looks better, i don't know

and i dont mean to be so negative on this storm's development, just seems it is not looking so well

the llc is partially exposed on visible now

[txwatcher91]

LLC now exposed as of latest visible, however I expect a flareup later tonight. Center looks to be about 175miles SSE of Wilmington.

[OuterBanker]

I wonder if this is going to pull a Gabrielle like last year. LLC separating from mid levels and nothing happening as it crossed the OBX.

[Brent]

Forecast now peaks it at 55 kt:

[RL3AO]

I love finding mistakes in the NHC products.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC REASONING. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT
THE SAME HEADING AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS DO DIVERGE A
LITTLE ON WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OR STAY MORE SEPARATE FROM THAT FEATURE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TAD FASTER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36 HR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

[KWT]

Looks like the LLC has become exposed again recently to the north of the convection. Still not surprised to see this being upgraded to a TS today.

[cpdaman]

Looks like the LLC has become exposed again recently to the north of the convection. Still not surprised to see this being upgraded to a TS today.

what convection, this 1006 low pressure system looks rather sad. checkout the WV loop , it looks like it he is making funeral preparations. Haven't found any insight from anyone as to why the convection collapsed, at this time, my first guess is dry air, the second is water temps appear marginal to the north of the gulf stream (barely 80 at bouy 41004 after a drop of about 1 degree in the last day), and the third possible less help from ULL to the South, and four some unseen increase (to me) in shear

[OuterBanker]

Hmm, TPC is forecasting 55 kts when east of us. Should be far enough east not to worry though. Could make for a few interesting moments if it does for tourist that have never been through a tropical system before. Also, we have a couple thousand exchange students working here too. I'm sure they don't have this kind of thing in Russia.

[KWT]

cpdaman, ther eis some flaring convection just to the south of this ssytem I've seen systems come back from far worse seperation than this before...

[KWT]

Didn't take long new convection developing over the strong LLC, with sure a strong LLC if it gets a good sustained burst over the center this could strengthen pretty rapidly IMO.

[chadtm80]

[JtSmarts]

It's going to be interesting to see how close Cristobal gets to an official landfall on the Outer Banks. Any northern wobbles over the next day could bring it very close.

[Downdraft]

I agree the radar out of Charleston is pretty pitiful right now.

[fci]

Wilmington radar is similar. A little band affecting Wilmington and otherwise what little convection is clearly swirling but there is so little of it.
They could all use the rain!

[jinftl]

true but with a storm this weak, the worst weather could be well-displaced from the actual center...

It's going to be interesting to see how close Cristobal gets to an official landfall on the Outer Banks. Any northern wobbles over the next day could bring it very close.

[Mecklenburg]

it's not raining here in Charlotte...

[seahawkjd]

So from the latest loops of the storm does it look like its just being strangled by the dry air or is it rebuilding over the center or circulation now?

[KWT]

Looks like the convection has started to rebuild over the circulation, probably not very deep mind you but it all helps out. Wuill probably have a close brush with the Carolinas thats for sure but the exact weather probably won't be all that severe unless it starts to strengthen more.