ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Stormcenter
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Re:

#3161 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:22 pm

extradited wrote:Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.



That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up. :roll:
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Re:

#3162 Postby funster » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:23 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:If this had closed LLC in the middle of the convection it would be undergoing Rapid Intensification right now in my opinion. As it is, I think we are seeing Rapid Organization instead. This can blowup as soon as it gets the LLC.


Yeah, I agree. 94L has not been lacking convection so once the organization is ready it should blossom.
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#3163 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:25 pm

thats what I worry about hurricanelandfall, this has been such a stubborn wave feature and I think once it does reach slightly more favorable conditions possibly near the Yucatan or in the Gulf/BoC it could well develop pretty readily. We will see!
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Re: Re:

#3164 Postby funster » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:27 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
extradited wrote:Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.



That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up. :roll:



94L is probably already almost producing strong enough gusts to make them abandon the oil rigs - were it to head in that direction. Hopefully, it won't.
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#3165 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm

Image

I predict the TCFA will stop spreading westward when (if) it reaches the WGOM. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#3166 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:32 pm

funster wrote:94L is probably already almost producing strong enough gusts to make them abandon the oil rigs - were it to head in that direction. Hopefully, it won't.


Oil rigs are evacuated because of the threat that a system could develop into a hurricane. They can tolerate tropical storm force winds fine. It's the hurricane force or greater winds that have the capability to cause serious damage. So if it headed toward the northwest Gulf, the oil companies would begin evacuations based upon the chance of it becoming a hurricane. They take the safety of their people very seriously out there.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3167 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
funster wrote:That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up. :roll:



94L is probably already almost producing strong enough gusts to make them abandon the oil rigs - were it to head in that direction. Hopefully, it won't.


Oil rigs are evacuated because of the threat that a system could develop into a hurricane. They can tolerate tropical storm force winds fine. It's the hurricane force or greater winds that have the capability to cause serious damage. So if it headed toward the northwest Gulf, the oil companies would begin evacuations based upon the chance of it becoming a hurricane. They take the safety of their people very seriously out there.[/quote]

as they should. but i got a sick sick feeling that I'll be paying 4 bucks for gas again come mid week....

anyway I don't see rapid organization, while it's near d-min so convection would typically weaken right now, i just don't think we have a ts yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3168 Postby Nederlander » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:36 pm

I'm new here, but I am from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area... I was looking at the GFDL earlier and it has the storm gunning right for us, but I've heard that it may be heading toward south Texas... So I was just wondering why some feel that it would stay south, rather than curving northward like most storms seem to do once they are in the GOM?
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#3169 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:40 pm

94L is producing decent convection, but has no LLC...Cristobal is producing minimal convection, but has a vigorous LLC. A bit funny.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3170 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:41 pm

Nederlander wrote:I'm new here, but I am from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area... I was looking at the GFDL earlier and it has the storm gunning right for us, but I've heard that it may be heading toward south Texas... So I was just wondering why some feel that it would stay south, rather than curving northward like most storms seem to do once they are in the GOM?


questions like this are best asked in the tropical analysis forum
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3171 Postby Musketeer » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:47 pm

The Golden Triangle has a great set of weathermen in Greg, James, and Kerry. I am sure that Kerry will update the area today when he does the weather.

Nederlander wrote:I'm new here, but I am from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area... I was looking at the GFDL earlier and it has the storm gunning right for us, but I've heard that it may be heading toward south Texas... So I was just wondering why some feel that it would stay south, rather than curving northward like most storms seem to do once they are in the GOM?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3172 Postby Javlin » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:53 pm

From the way it is moving sure does look like a CAmerica issue,Nic. especially.Has to be one of the most complex systems in a while.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3173 Postby jinftl » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:55 pm

94L has been an invest for a week now....it started at 34.7W and is now at 79.2W longitude...that is over 2000 miles of the tropical atlantic...stilll an invest. It has been persistent, no argument. But in an annoying way!!! It is going to run out of water if it doesn't figure out if it wants to be Dolly before too long...do something already or a wave that is still over Africa will take your place!!!!
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Re: Re:

#3174 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:56 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
extradited wrote:Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.



That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up. :roll:


You just know that if this becomes Dolly by tomorrow,the price of oil will skyrocket Monday morning
Last edited by canegrl04 on Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3175 Postby Nederlander » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:57 pm

Musketeer wrote:The Golden Triangle has a great set of weathermen in Greg, James, and Kerry. I am sure that Kerry will update the area today when he does the weather.



I did text Kerry a while ago, he's a good friend of mine, and he said he was on the road but did say that it looked to him more like a south texas issue... so i guess its still a guessing game til it gets into the gulf... The convection is quite impressive with this storm though..
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#3176 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:59 pm

I think its only a matter of time before it runs into more favorable ground, looking increasingly possible that won't occur til lthe gulf region and by that time it would probably only have 36-48hrs to do something, still as we've seen thats plenty of time if its got a decent circulation, soething that this system is missing right now!
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#3177 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:07 pm

Image

Even thought it's not a TS, if I were in the Cayman Islands and Yucatán I would start making any preparations to receive a tropical storm. Even if no LLC develops, conditions will be like those of TS intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3178 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:08 pm

Image

Well it certainly has no problem firing convection, now where is that darn surface low!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3179 Postby vaffie » Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:10 pm

Pressures falling steadily at the buoy ahead of it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT
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Re:

#3180 Postby jinftl » Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:12 pm

has jamaica been experiencing tropical storm conditions? the convection they have seen is moving toward the Caymans...probably be a decent estimate of what to expect.

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Even thought it's not a TS, if I were in the Cayman Islands and Yucatán I would start making any preparations to receive a tropical storm. Even if no LLC develops, conditions will be like those of TS intensity.
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