ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MGC]

I don't see any circulation evident from surface observations tonight. Just kind of looks like two seperate blobs of thunderstorms. We need a ship to report a west wind.....MGC

[Ptarmigan]

I think it will be a cat 12/325mph/786mb in 24 hours.

That's a hypercane right there!

[stormchazer]

Is it me or is it not looking as good as it has on previous evenings. If the center has moved then I am buying but it still looks a bit displaced.

[windycity]

As always a wonderful post, Derek.Thankyou!!

[Ptarmigan]

I think by the time it goes into GOM, it could develop. The infrared satellite has 94L with some really cold cloud tops.

[littlevince]

I made an GE overlay with IR (03:45Z), Quikscat (03:42Z) and Buoy 42057 location




Buoy 42057
0350 ESE ( 103 deg ) 3.7 kts
0340 NE ( 44 deg ) 4.5 kts
0330 NNE ( 25 deg ) 7.2 kts
0320 NNE ( 29 deg ) 9.1 kts
0310 NNE ( 20 deg ) 8.9 kts
0300 NNE ( 29 deg ) 14.0 kts

[Wx_Warrior]

The 2 blobs...Dolly & Porter or Dolly & Kenny?

[lrak]

OMG "Coward of the county"

Ouch I'm old

[funster]

Older still - "Hello Dolly" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd4HPipfceU

[coreyl]

Has this storm slowed down in movement?

[wxmann_91]

I will tell you- it will not be a hurricane tomorrow. I do think it'll be classified by this time tomorrow, but low level flow from the east still has not let up yet. It's not really forecasted to until it gets well into the GOM, 72 hr.

The way this storm has been, I'm not prepared to make a call of what it will do 10 min. from now much less 72 hrs. This storm had defied all odds.

I am prepared to make a call of what it will do 10 min from now. 10 min from now, it will be developing vigorous convection, aided by diffluence and upward motion caused in part by the ULL to the NW, and in part by the DMAX. It will still have no LLC, as the low level winds are still too strong from the east.

This storm really hasn't been defying all odds. It hasn't been sheared to pieces. It the conditions in the Caribbean were more similar to Aug or Sept (when the 700/850 flow isn't as strong), this would be a significant system right now.

My personal non-pro forecast: in about 72 hr it'll have nearly a perfect environment for RI. Warm SST's, strong upward motion in the right entrance region of a 50+kt 200mb jet with a strong anticyclone on top of the cyclone. Strong outflow channels to the NW and to the E, SE and S aided by ULL's. This has been forecasted by multiple models for days now. But of course TC's are fickle and things could easily go wrong. Time will tell. I've been saying this for days, but now that there are pros in multiple forums agreeing with me on the sheer "beautifulness" of the progged environment, I'm a little more confident in my call.

[Yankeegirl]

As long as it gives us a little rain, i dont care where it goes... just a little rain would be nice!! I know its going to be a flip flop ride on the model rollercoaster but at least its somewhat interesting... I dont want anyone getting nailed by this by any means, just a little stuff in the rain department...not that i think its going to blow up or anything... OK, enough with the rambling... you guys get the idea...

[stevetampa33614]

As long as it gives us a little rain, i dont care where it goes... just a little rain would be nice!! I know its going to be a flip flop ride on the model rollercoaster but at least its somewhat interesting... I dont want anyone getting nailed by this by any means, just a little stuff in the rain department...not that i think its going to blow up or anything... OK, enough with the rambling... you guys get the idea...

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

Enjoy your flooding maam.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont want any flooding, just a little rain to make the grass green again and make it so i dont have to water as much...

[Ptarmigan]

As long as it gives us a little rain, i dont care where it goes... just a little rain would be nice!! I know its going to be a flip flop ride on the model rollercoaster but at least its somewhat interesting... I dont want anyone getting nailed by this by any means, just a little stuff in the rain department...not that i think its going to blow up or anything... OK, enough with the rambling... you guys get the idea...

I want rain too.

[lrak]

The satellite loop is really showing some impressive blobs. I've been looking at this thing for two weeks (i think) and these blobs have been sustained by something for a long time.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST , no west but now its south...

[RL3AO]

Code: Select all

4. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42
       A. 20/1200Z
       B. NOAA2 06AAA CYCLONE
       C. 20/0800Z
       D. 19.8N 84.0W
       E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1600Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

Any idea if this is still going in?

[A1A]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST , no west but now its south...

Hmm - yeah, I would expect NW winds but not S??

[lrak]

[Sanibel]

NE to E to S in last three readings. Form better, convection constant. Should finally develop tomorrow. West Caribbean was favorable for 95L too.