ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxsouth]

It finally looks like this system may get its act together...Bouy 42057 is indicating at least a very sharp wave axis. In addition...the most recent ASCAT pass is very close to showing a closed low level circulation. The wave has certainly sharpened up significantly in the last 12 hours. If current trends continue...I would expect to be able to see some definitive signs of a closed low with the first vis images in the morning.

[A1A]

But a South reading on the West side?

[Sanibel]

Ejected remnant center?

[Brent]

That QS looks interesting. It's gotta be REALLY close.

[lrak]

Maybe something at 17n 81.5w , look at the bending on the last satellite loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[A1A]

Maybe something at 17n 81.5w , look at the bending on the last satellite loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

With all the blob on the right??

[lrak]

swirling down on the left side in the middle of both blobs...LOL

oh and I just scored a dr. pepper from the freezer with perfect timing...

[Wx_Warrior]

Islands in the stream, that is what we are...

Sorry, couldnt resist.

[A1A]

lrak wrote:
Maybe something at 17n 81.5w , look at the bending on the last satellite loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

I can't get decipher anything from your high level view - you can say hi to the eskimos with that view - I'm on the tropical floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Kerry04]

It finally looks like this system may get its act together...Bouy 42057 is indicating at least a very sharp wave axis. In addition...the most recent ASCAT pass is very close to showing a closed low level circulation. The wave has certainly sharpened up significantly in the last 12 hours. If current trends continue...I would expect to be able to see some definitive signs of a closed low with the first vis images in the morning.

So where do you think the circulation is closing off at?

[Ed Mahmoud]

And, in my humble and unprofessional and unofficial opinion, as stated before, 9even when I thought this was a TD yesterday morning, and was quite wrong), is between a strong wave, and a high end cat 1/bordelrine Cat 2, and probably a strong tropical storm or minimal Cat 1, between Veracruz and Corpus Christi, and most likely just South of the Rio Grande.



And this is unofficial as all heck.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The mods never sleep...

[wxsouth]

As of the time of that image (0211Z)...probably somewhere in the vicinity of 16N 80W...but with the caveat that these satellite winds can tend to misplace centers.

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNPC.html




http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on recon get out into the core of this in find our LLC. It will likely be tomarrow afternoon, but I can hope it will be early this morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IR2 changed somehow this year. I no longer find it a useful way of discerning low cloud motion at night.


Next best thing, and what I use now, is "Funktop".

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just from buoys and all, I still don't think this has closed a center...

[HURAKAN]

They are waiting until the last minute to release the TWO.

[lrak]

IR2 changed somehow this year. I no longer find it a useful way of discerning low cloud motion at night.


Next best thing, and what I use now, is "Funktop".

Sounds like a dude that enjoyed the 70s worked on that type of view...

[mattpetre]

Does anyone believe this storm is dead? I've got a feeling it may even make it to a hurricane with the modestly improving conditions ahead of it.