ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[RL3AO]

This has to be called a Depression based on the simple fact that if it isn't, why is there isn't a scale that includes Depressions? Why not just Have TS' and 'Canes then if you can't make up your mind if something is a Depression, Storm, or a wave.

Its pretty simple. No closed surface circulation = no tropical cyclone.

I really want to know what you guys are talking about. It is closed.

I thought he was talking about why it wasn't upgraded in the past. In fact, I still don't know what he was talking about.

[Air Force Met]

I thought he was talking about why it wasn't upgraded in the past. In fact, I still don't know what he was talking about.

Gotcha. Had me worried there for a sec...but I knew you knew better

[Just Joshing You]

I was replying to a comment made by Derek Ortt that he wouldn't upgrade it. You kind of have to upgrade it. It has an LLC, so why not? But it appears this is moot and 11 am will solve that.

[cycloneye]

Moving 300 degrees that has big future implications on the track.

LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

[canegrl04]

By the way, I know this isn't about 94L, but if anyone missed the memo, it appears that Bertha will be kept alive for one more advisory at least, meaning we will have three named storms at the same time in July.

And we could possible tie for the most named storms in July with 2005.The wave off Africa will become Eduoard.That makes four.Theres still some time for the F name to form before the end of the month

[coreyl]

Moving 300 degrees that has big future implications on the track.

LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

Does that mean it is moving north or just west?

[Just Joshing You]

That wave off Africa will probably become Edouard, yes, but it will most likely take awhile to develop.

[Smurfwicked]

By the way, I know this isn't about 94L, but if anyone missed the memo, it appears that Bertha will be kept alive for one more advisory at least, meaning we will have three named storms at the same time in July.

And we could possible tie for the most named storms in July with 2005.The wave off Africa will become Eduoard.That makes four.Theres still some time for the F name to form before the end of the month

With 11 days left I think are chances of that happening are pretty good.

[TheShrimper]

Of course you wouldn't classify it Derek, that would contradict your statement that "it wouldn't develop untill it reaches the gulf ". Oh well, live and learn.

[cycloneye]

Moving 300 degrees that has big future implications on the track.

LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

Does that mean it is moving north or just west?

Westnorthwest

[Smurfwicked]

So I am not seeing things and it does look like shes trying to move thru the channel?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Disclaimer: I believe that my reasoning is sound, but I am not a professional, my expected tracks and intensity are not official, and they ar enot endorsed by Storm2K

I called mi suegro this morning, and advised him that my belief is that hurricane watches may go up tomorrow for the Tamaulipas coast and possibly the coast of Texas along Padre Island. My wife has family in Tamaulipas and the Valley, and they should probably be getting bottled water, gasoline, batteries, flashlights, etc. today, before the panic.


I'm guessing (it has some scientific basis, but is still a guess) that we're probably talking a strong TS to a low end Cat 2, and they live near Cd. Ordaz, Tamps, and Mission and La Joya, Texas, that is, close enough to the coast that losing power seems a legitimate concern.

If the storm hits somewhere else, full gas tanks, bottled water and batteries will get used for something.


Model concensus seems clustered now, probably South of the Rio Grande (which would still put the Valley on what is usually the stronger side) but it seems anyplace from near Tampico to North of Corpus Christi is possible. And Claudette, while landfalling near Port O'Connor, did some damage near my wife's "Popo"s (her grandfather) vacation house in Jamaica Beach, Galveston Island.



Disclaimer: I believe that my reasoning is sound, but I am not a professional, my expected tracks and intensity are not official, and they ar enot endorsed by Storm2K

[funster]

There she is, Miss America

[Ed Mahmoud]

270º is due West, 0º/360º is due North, 315º is Northwest. 293º is about West-Northwest

[RL3AO]

and 300 is about northwest by west (NWbW)

[RL3AO]

I would not want to make this forecast track. Because where ever you have the cone will probably end up being wrong and if you have it hitting anywhere on the US GOM coast the media will go nuts.

[lrak]

Dang Ed, you are making me worry.

[gatorcane]

given the more northerly-movement (induced by ULL), it certainly looks to have a decent chance of getting into the GOM now (not just the BOC).

[GeneratorPower]

I think the NHCs initial track will be based much less off models than most advisories are. I think they will use steering currents and extrapolated trends more.

[Starburst]

53.2 mph wind found has been the highest correct?