ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Frank P]

and you can also see convection building just to the north of the LLC

[HURAKAN]

[jasons2k]

I wonder if the LLC will relocate later. It does look like on the visibles that the LLC was wrapping-up pretty good though, but you never know this early. I remember Ernesto all too well.

[Rainband]

All I have to say is thank God for the ridge.

[Scott_inVA]

Can we expect a big shift in the models being that the center has initialized further north than the models thought?

Yep. Track should be NW of 12Z models.

Scott

[PauleinHouston]

Me thinks models initialized as much as 3 degrees south of correct location. This should be huge for new runs once Dolly's official.

Also, if you extrapolate the recon data from yesterday where they found a "very weak kinda sorta surface circulation", against todays data, overall movement appears to be more on the order of due NW to me....310-320 degrees or so...

[TTheriot1975]

All this waiting makes you dizzy. I remember Humberto last year also. I was in the middle of it. It sure can sneak up on ya!! Is SETX/LA out of the woods? Also, where will the high pressure be? Isn't it scheduled to move off of us?

[wxman57]

Vortex message is correct. There is no LLC under the convection, it's out west of the convection. Track to northern Mexico looks most likely, probably as a hurricane at final landfall.

[canegrl04]

Looks like the cone of probablity will be shifting from S. tip of Texas to MS

[SouthFLTropics]

All I have to say is thank God for the ridge.

I'll share that sentiment with you Rainband...I'm not wanting any piece of this action...

[RL3AO]

Looks like the cone of probablity will be shifting from S. tip of Texas to MS

Like I said before, they don't choose the size of the cone. Its based on the average error.

[americanrebel]

Looks like the cone of probablity will be shifting from S. tip of Texas to MS

Like I said before, they don't choose the size of the cone. Its based on the average error.

That's funny because I have seen it where the cone has been from Corpus Christi to New Orleans before. I live down here, in fact when Katrina first entered the GoM, that is what the cone was for her.

[coreyl]

Looks like the cone of probablity will be shifting from S. tip of Texas to MS

Why do you think that?

[weatherguru18]

I wonder if the LLC will relocate later. It does look like on the visibles that the LLC was wrapping-up pretty good though, but you never know this early. I remember Ernesto all too well.

If I remember correctly, these centers will usually end up relocating under the deepest convection.

[redstick]

Vortex message is correct. There is no LLC under the convection, it's out west of the convection. Track to northern Mexico looks most likely, probably as a hurricane at final landfall.

Guess we shall wait and see if it remains there or is pulled under the main convection. A rapidly intensfying storm would also play a huge role in future track.

[bob rulz]

Should have an advisory any minute now...

[Rainband]

Looks like the cone of probablity will be shifting from S. tip of Texas to MS

Read wxman57's post

[Cryomaniac]

I suppose the question now is whether Bertha will still be tropical at 11AM.

[Cyclone1]

04L. Dolly



"Hellooooo, Dolly!"

[MiamiensisWx]

Advisories should be initiated after the Bertha, Cristobal, and Fausto packages are completed.