ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[perk]

Vortex message is correct. There is no LLC under the convection, it's out west of the convection. Track to northern Mexico looks most likely, probably as a hurricane at final landfall.

wxman57 now that an LLC has been established, is it possible that Dolly can get further north than n mexico.

[loro-rojo]

Well.. Bertha is now extratropical, so we will not have 3 cyclones at one time in the Atlantic at this time.

[HURAKAN]

145130 1825N 08327W 9571 00476 0102 +231 +226 132033 035 042 018 00
145200 1826N 08326W 9552 00492 0100 +228 +228 117039 042 059 034 00
145230 1827N 08325W 9572 00476 0104 +226 +226 117037 038 057 040 00
145300 1829N 08324W 9541 00509 0106 +226 +226 120044 046 052 028 00
145330 1830N 08323W 9567 00487 0109 +228 +228 121044 045 044 010 00
145400 1831N 08321W 9570 00483 0110 +229 +228 120043 044 041 005 00
145430 1833N 08320W 9573 00482 0111 +229 +227 121042 042 042 001 00
145500 1834N 08319W 9583 00474 0114 +228 +227 122043 043 041 003 00
145530 1835N 08318W 9583 00474 0113 +232 +226 122041 041 040 005 00
145600 1836N 08316W 9581 00477 0114 +235 +223 123041 042 042 003 00
145630 1838N 08315W 9580 00480 0116 +232 +223 122041 042 041 004 00
145700 1839N 08314W 9585 00476 0116 +231 +222 122039 040 041 006 00
145730 1840N 08313W 9584 00476 0116 +230 +222 123040 041 041 005 00
145800 1841N 08311W 9582 00478 0117 +231 +220 126041 041 041 005 00

SFMR: 59 knots

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know this has been mentioned a few times, but don't think it has really been answered in detail. What are the chances that the llc will fade away/relocate or develop a new center under the big mass of storms further to the NE before the day is over.? Looking at the visibles seems to be some twisting to that complex as well?

[bvigal]

Here is a better sat view than floater2, because you can see into the gulf.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

59kts? Is that FOR REAL????

[americanrebel]

145200 1826N 08326W 9552 00492 0100 +228 +228 117039 042 059 034 00
145230 1827N 08325W 9572 00476 0104 +226 +226 117037 038 057 040 00
145300 1829N 08324W 9541 00509 0106 +226 +226 120044 046 052 028 00

So it is possible she could be a 50kt TS.

[tpr1967]

I know this has been mentioned a few times, but don't think it has really been answered in detail. What are the chances that the llc will fade away/relocate or develop a new center under the big mass of storms further to the NE before the day is over.? Looking at the visibles seems to be some twisting to that complex as well?

Can you say -removed-.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why still no advisory 10 minutes after 11am?

[Chacor]

I suspect they will issue it at 11:30 or 12 as a special adv.

[cpdaman]

cyclone mike , Air force met said that it is most likely to do so about an hour ago, he used the phrase classic case

the poster who said wish-casting must have been napping when Air force met posted this


and it is my understanding that this is still the strongest threat to N. MExico (thus wxman57's) statement , although everyone in the gulf needs to pay attention, esp. texas

[vaffie]

I know this has been mentioned a few times, but don't think it has really been answered in detail. What are the chances that the llc will fade away/relocate or develop a new center under the big mass of storms further to the NE before the day is over.? Looking at the visibles seems to be some twisting to that complex as well?

It frequently happens. It's probably quite possible over the course of the day, but by tomorrow morning, once the ull over the Yucatan gets out the way and the upper level environment becomes favorable, shear will end and it will cease to be possible. In the meantime it could make quite a difference, and already has.

[Derek Ortt]

is it being upgraded... the advisory should have been out by now if it were going to be upgraded

[funster]

Why still no advisory 10 minutes after 11am?

Maybe they are carefully wording it?

[Derek Ortt]

59KT almost certainly an error

[Chacor]

is it being upgraded... the advisory should have been out by now if it were going to be upgraded

They could be waiting for more recon info to determine intensity. Perhaps holding off until 12.

[bob rulz]

Why still no advisory 10 minutes after 11am?

There's a lot of things to look at with this system. Not to mention they had 3 other systems to write advisories on.

[dwg71]

I know this has been mentioned a few times, but don't think it has really been answered in detail. What are the chances that the llc will fade away/relocate or develop a new center under the big mass of storms further to the NE before the day is over.? Looking at the visibles seems to be some twisting to that complex as well?

I think you will see convection near center refire before you will see center move to the storms NE of the center. ULL seems to be blowing storms off that direction. They may be too far removed and start to dissipate, which appears to be happening. Cloud tops are warming on that large storm.

[Ivanhater]

Bout time this thing developed!..As we have seen time and time again, a center relocation is highly possible, just need to keep an eye on it, certainly with the LLC now not by the convection, look for it to relocate close to the convection...

[RL3AO]

They might be waiting for recon to go through the convection. Most likely a special advisory at 12.

[Brent]

I'm sure it's coming, patience.