Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-wv.html
There is also a fairly strong tropical wave over western Africa that should move into the Atlantic in the next day or so.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[TampaFl]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

Yes, more often than not, a storm coming off Africa near the latitude of the Cape Verde islands will recurve. However, it should be noted that there have been many notable exceptions to this in years past...

1928 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
1938 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1938 ... _track.png
1947 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
Hurricane Hugo - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
Hurricane Fran - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fran_1996_track.png

For now, all we can really do with the current system is watch it and see how things evolve.

Also Hurricane Donna 1960 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png

[stevetampa33614]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

Yes, more often than not, a storm coming off Africa near the latitude of the Cape Verde islands will recurve. However, it should be noted that there have been many notable exceptions to this in years past...

1928 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
1938 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1938 ... _track.png
1947 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
Hurricane Hugo - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
Hurricane Fran - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fran_1996_track.png

For now, all we can really do with the current system is watch it and see how things evolve.

Also Hurricane Donna 1960 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png

ouch dont do that to a fellow floridian.

[cycloneye]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That has to be one of the biggest freaking waves I've ever seen coming off the African coast. That thing must be 250-300 miles wide and 400-450 miles from north to south. If a TIPS like storm could form in the Atlantic it would be from one of these.

Yes I've seen bigger north to south. But not with that shape. It has a monster of a LLC with banding that you could only dream of.

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 16.6N 20.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.07.2008 16.6N 20.3W MODERATE

00UTC 23.07.2008 16.6N 22.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.07.2008 16.5N 27.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.07.2008 15.7N 29.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.07.2008 16.2N 32.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.07.2008 15.1N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.07.2008 17.1N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.07.2008 17.7N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[CourierPR]

Oh my! The Cape Verde area seems to be making up for past inactivity.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That has to be one of the biggest freaking waves I've ever seen coming off the African coast. That thing must be 250-300 miles wide and 400-450 miles from north to south. If a TIPS like storm could form in the Atlantic it would be from one of these.

Yes I've seen bigger north to south. But not with that shape. It has a monster of a LLC with banding that you could only dream of.

Since that appears to be about double the size of Texas, I'd say that is as big as Alaska.

Good thing it *probably* recurves, that looks like it could bring bad weather to Texas, Louisiana and Florida simultaneously if centered in the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

The size of Gilbert is this,not saying anything about intensity,only comparing size.

[canegrl04]

What the hell have the Africans been feeding that thing

This reminds me of The Smiths and their song November Spawned A Monster.Only this looks more like July spawned a monster

[Vortex]

simply remarkable.. In my years of watching the African wave train this ranks in the top 5!

[GeneratorPower]

Good GRIEF. It's huge. Might this be the largest POOF in history?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

Yes, more often than not, a storm coming off Africa near the latitude of the Cape Verde islands will recurve. However, it should be noted that there have been many notable exceptions to this in years past...

1928 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
1938 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1938 ... _track.png
1947 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
Hurricane Hugo - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
Hurricane Fran - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fran_1996_track.png

For now, all we can really do with the current system is watch it and see how things evolve.

Also Hurricane Donna 1960 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png

The only reason I didn't incude Donna yesterday was because she formed a little further south than where it looked like this wave would come off Africa. As of this morning though, the wave does seem to have pushed a little south and west, so perhaps the Donna track should also now be used as a historical reference.


By the way - - for anyone interested, here is a wikipedia page that lists all the major cape verde hurricanes to have ever formed: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

It is definitely a good resource to have when wondering about potential tracks of these cape verde systems.

[mufasa157]

Dakar Met Data; wind gusts 41 mph???

July 20 2008

Actual: Average : Record :
Temperature:
Mean Temperature 80 °F / 26 °C -
Max Temperature 86 °F / 30 °C 84 °F / 29 °C 87 °F / 30 °C (1999)
Min Temperature 73 °F / 23 °C 73 °F / 23 °C 46 °F / 7 °C (2001)
Cooling Degree Days 14
Growing Degree Days 30 (Base 50)
Moisture:
Dew Point 74 °F / 23 °C
Average Humidity 77
Maximum Humidity 88
Minimum Humidity 66
Precipitation:
Precipitation 0.00 in / 0.0 cm 5.11 in / 129.9 cm - ()
Sea Level Pressure:
Sea Level Pressure 29.92 in / 1013.11 hPa
Wind:
Wind Speed 6 mph / 10 km/h ()
Max Wind Speed 24 mph / 39 km/h
Max Gust Speed 41 mph / 67 km/h
Visibility 5.2 miles / 8.4 kilometers
Events Rain , Thunderstorm

[bob rulz]

I can see only 2 good things about this:

1) Waves of this size generally have a harder time organizing
2) It will most likely recurve if it does form

Other than that this thing is just a MONSTER. That wide-view Atlantic satellite really puts my jaw on the floor, especially since you can see how it compares in size with soon-to-be-Dolly and with Fausto in the East Pacific.

[njweather]

Wow, that is truly massive...

SAL is looking fairly weak:

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is no based on any information, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

I doubt this will stay this big as it organizes, but we should see Edouard before too long.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For what its worth, JB thinks this system will be in the vicinity of 20N and 60W a week from now, and then could potentially be a U.S. threat beyond that (10-15 days down the road). Of course, he also said something similar about Bertha, so I am not taking his prediction too seriously right now. For now, we should just continue to monitor this wave closely and see what eventually plays out, keeping in mind that anything can (and probably will) happen with this.

[HURAKAN]

Bertha 08 ~ Bertha 96
Cristóbal 08 ~ Cristóbal 02
Dolly 08 (forecast) ~ Dolly 96

Edouard's options!!!

[Scorpion]

Wow that is a monster wave. It is similar to one from '05(97L) that never formed, though.