ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[dixiebreeze]

Here is the first model graphic for storm 4 Dolly.

Those models looks like they're placing the center much further south than it actually is now. Am I right?

The runs will change over the coming hours.Should be reflecting a more NW component

That's my guess, too, Canegirl, only I'd say "much" more.

[americanrebel]

IMHO, once again just my thoughts, no scientific evidence behind this at all.

I think the cone will be from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at first and will slowly get shrunk down to wherever they think it will go.

[RL3AO]

IMHO, once again just my thoughts, no scientific evidence behind this at all.

I think the cone will be from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at first and will slowly get shrunk down to wherever they think it will go.

They don't choose the width of the cone. The cone is 2/3rd the average error.

[Portastorm]

So are we going to have to wait until the 0z model runs for a proper initialization or do y'all think the 18z runs might get it right?

[chadtm80]

[PTrackerLA]

Hard to argue for a Texas hit with those models...

[njweather]

Hard to argue for a Texas hit with those models...

Well, look at how far south those models initialize the system. They'll be more north with the next runs.

[RL3AO]

Hard to argue for a Texas hit with those models...

Those models initiated the low 3 or 4 degrees too far south. The models will move north with the next run.

[Wx_Warrior]

we'll see

[PTrackerLA]

Isn't the storm2k model map updated?

[RL3AO]

Isn't the storm2k model map updated?

It will update when the models run again.

[KWT]

Whats interesting is as has been mentioned the models started to ofar south with Dolly. IMO NHC may not be all that far off and current movement puts Dolly right in line with the NHC at least for a little while.

Will be interesting to see the 12z GFDL i think!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If Dolly strengthens more quickly I would expect her to take a track more on the right-side of the cone. Even so, looks like the models have indeed initialized her too far south.
So would expect a right shift (or bend) in the models towards Texas especially if Dolly strengthens more quickly than expected:

I think this very-well could be a Texas storm here (I'm not sold on Mexico).

Note the trough from NHC Dolly Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND
CRISTOBAL. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My bet right now is that this winds up hitting south Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


---7/23/08 2:31pm Update---

It looks like the prediction I made on Sunday morning wound up being pretty accurate..

[Portastorm]

My bet right now is that this winds up hitting south Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Which would be a good thing (if we can even say that in dealing with a tropical cyclone) since all that's there essentially is the King Ranch, aka Bret in 99.

[gatorcane]

Look how amplified the trough is that breaks down ridging over the Eastern CONUS:

[Portastorm]

Holy smokes!!

I would expect to see a trough of that magnitude in January not July. If that verifies ... yeah, you gotta believe the Gulf ridge will erode some.

[Aric Dunn]

well the cmc initialized it way to far south on the 12z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[vaffie]

well the cmc initialized it way to far south on the 12z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

True, but more importantly look at how intense and how rapidly the CMC makes it in the Gulf. Let's see if the 12Z GFDL and HWRF do the same thing. Track is one of those things which is sure to change a lot, but what's important right now is to determine how favorable the conditions are going to be. What kind of storm is it going to be.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL:It iniciated south of the NHC position:

WHXX04 KWBC 201731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.8 83.6 300./14.0
6 18.6 84.8 304./14.1
12 19.5 86.0 308./14.2
18 20.5 87.2 310./15.6
24 21.3 88.9 296./17.9
30 22.1 90.1 303./13.5
36 22.8 91.3 301./12.8
42 23.5 92.6 296./14.2
48 23.9 93.8 291./11.3
54 24.2 94.6 291./ 8.0
60 24.4 95.2 286./ 5.7
66 24.7 95.8 296./ 6.8
72 24.9 96.4 292./ 5.2
78 24.9 96.8 273./ 4.0
84 24.7 97.4 250./ 5.5
90 24.6 98.0 255./ 5.5
96 24.1 98.7 238./ 8.2
102 23.1 99.3 209./11.4
108 23.0 101.2 266./17.4
114 23.0 102.4 274./11.5
120 23.8 103.8 299./15.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.