ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[weatherguru18]

Will the ULL in front of Dolly cause a more north movement of her center? Not -removed-, just asking.

The LLC will likely relocate under the deepest convection. Not saying it will, but usually that's what they tend to do. If the heaviest convection is to the north, look for a northward shift.

[Portastorm]

weatherguru18, its crertainly not easy to know but you don't take the risk if there is a chance it could do something. Lets not forget cat-1's can be pretty dangerous as well, esp if they come in strengthening.

Also that burst over the center is really impressive, looks like its trying to burst convectivly which can mean some quick strengthening.

Oh I know...I'm just putting myself in the position of hard heads along the coast who have never seen a hurricane and have no clue what a true cat. 1 can do. I think there is a big misconception there. That's why I said lil' ol'...

Normally, as you may know, we deal with an H-120 hours time clock and that is how the state emergency management folks have devised the plan. Every hour is critical and every hour has certain actions that must take place. Given that NHC says possible landfall Thurs at 8 a.m., we've already lost a day and that means everyone in the path must now act upon guidance by their local emergency management personnel. Any hesitation or ignorance can possibly cost lives.

[bvigal]

http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/811/smallloopjh2.gif
21-frame gif loop IR of Dolly - won't load live to save load on the board

p.s. If you come here and wonder what recon found, there are 2 threads for recon: reports and discussion. The last page of the discussion thread is a fast way to discover "what they found".

[weatherguru18]

weatherguru18, its crertainly not easy to know but you don't take the risk if there is a chance it could do something. Lets not forget cat-1's can be pretty dangerous as well, esp if they come in strengthening.

Also that burst over the center is really impressive, looks like its trying to burst convectivly which can mean some quick strengthening.

Oh I know...I'm just putting myself in the position of hard heads along the coast who have never seen a hurricane and have no clue what a true cat. 1 can do. I think there is a big misconception there. That's why I said lil' ol'...

Normally, as you may know, we deal with an H-120 hours time clock and that is how the state emergency management folks have devised the plan. Every hour is critical and every hour has certain actions that must take place. Given that NHC says possible landfall Thurs at 8 a.m., we've already lost a day and that means everyone in the path must now act upon guidance by their local emergency management personnel. Any hesitation or ignorance can possibly cost lives.

So give us some insider's info. What is taking place right now at the Office of Emergency Management. You think Houston and Galveston are making plans...along with Corpus and Brownsville? If this thing come our way (Houston), we're screwed aren't we? Time is dwindling like you said.

[Vortex]

I think residents of Northern Mexico and extreme SE Texas are looking at the real possibility of 90-100 mph storm overnight tuesday...

[Ptarmigan]

Everyone from Mexico to Texas should keep an eye on the storm.

[Ptarmigan]

I think residents of Northern Mexico and extreme SE Texas are looking at the real possibility of 90-100 mph storm overnight tuesday...

Nothing can surprise me with them.

[funster]

Derek Ortt writes about a ridge in his forecast http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042008forecast.html

If there is a ridge doesn't that mean the north coast of Texas is safe?

[weatherguru18]

Derek Ortt writes about a ridge in his forecast http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042008forecast.html

If there is a ridge doesn't that mean the north coast of Texas is safe?

Yeah, but the caveat to that is the ridge is forecast to weaken thanks to the approaching trough.

[Portastorm]

I'm sure there were a number of conference calls following the "Dolly" issuance by NHC with emergency management folks in the Valley and NWS offices and the state emergency management leadership. The cities, along with the state, have a coordinated plan and you can be sure that elements of that plan are already underway.

As for Houston and Galveston ... I'm confident that they, like most of the coastal communities, are keeping a close eye on Dolly.

Rita was a wake-up call and no one wants to repeat that experience again!

[hurrican19]

Here you can get 30 visible frames, you can see the LLC moving under the blowup, and now is completely under the clouds.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Click on the "Animation" button, then choose 30 image loop, then click on the satellite image where you want it zoomed in to.

[mvtrucking]

Does anyone know what JB's take is on the storm, since it was upgraded? Just curious.

[weatherguru18]

Looks like some really nice outflow trying to set up on the N and NW Quads.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Cape Verde]

I know the Houston area is essentially out of the probability cone AS OF THIS MINUTE, but I really wonder what would happen if it became a real threat to the area.

Millions tried to evacuate for Rita and dozens died in the effort, which turned out not to be needed in hindsight.

I'm not sure most will even risk that evacuation fiasco.

[funster]

Derek Ortt writes about a ridge in his forecast http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042008forecast.html

If there is a ridge doesn't that mean the north coast of Texas is safe?

Yeah, but the caveat to that is the ridge is forecast to weaken thanks to the approaching trough.

It looks like Ortt and the NHC have it weakening temporarily but then they both turn Dolly back to the West again. A short-lived weakness?

[funster]

I know the Houston area is essentially out of the probability cone AS OF THIS MINUTE, but I really wonder what would happen if it became a real threat to the area.

Millions tried to evacuate for Rita and dozens died in the effort, which turned out not to be needed in hindsight.

I'm not sure most will even risk that evacuation fiasco.

Yeah, tons of people died in their cars and stuff. That was awful.

[weatherguru18]

I know the Houston area is essentially out of the probability cone AS OF THIS MINUTE, but I really wonder what would happen if it became a real threat to the area.

Millions tried to evacuate for Rita and dozens died in the effort, which turned out not to be needed in hindsight.

I'm not sure most will even risk that evacuation fiasco.

Considering it took 21 hours to go 180 miles...I won't be doing it again. My family left because of all the tall pines around our house. We're about 70 miles inland (50 miles as the crow flies) and we still would have seen winds over 100 mph...that's why they left.

[MGC]

Hopefully Dolly's core circulation is disrupted over the Yucatan. If not and Dolly emerges with an intact core than significant intensification is probable over the GOM.....MGC

[vaffie]

Yeah, it was a nightmare. If it were to come here, no matter how strong, we'll probably ride it out in our closet this time. What a horrible day that would be--I have a very bad feeling about it.

[weatherguru18]

Hopefully Dolly's core circulation is disrupted over the Yucatan. If not and Dolly emerges with an intact core than significant intensification is probable over the GOM.....MGC

If it shot the channel, we'd really be in for it. And we may still be....