ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

I remember that Keith weakened to TD over the Yucatán Peninsula and then impacted México as a Cat. 1 hurricane a few days later. Dolly will have a lot more time to gets its act together.

[canegrl04]

If Dolly brushes the Yucatan tip,or gets in untouched,we are looking at a potential for cat 4 status.Thats worst case scenario

[ColdFusion]

If Dolly brushes the Yucatan tip,or gets in untouched,we are looking at a potential for cat 4 status.Thats worst case scenario

No, you're not.

[funster]

If Dolly brushes the Yucatan tip,or gets in untouched,we are looking at a potential for cat 4 status.Thats worst case scenario

That could wipe out a town. It would be very sad.

[Smurfwicked]

I know the Houston area is essentially out of the probability cone AS OF THIS MINUTE, but I really wonder what would happen if it became a real threat to the area.

Millions tried to evacuate for Rita and dozens died in the effort, which turned out not to be needed in hindsight.

I'm not sure most will even risk that evacuation fiasco.

Yeah, but out all those who did evacuate was also the ones who did need to, the people in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area.

[sphelps8681]

I did not see this post so I must have done something wrong.

My question was since the actual center was different than the models were showing, what would be the direction of movement if the center relocates under the heaviest convection and will this affect the models any?

I was here for Rita, won't do that again. That storm just showed me how much advance notice is needed to be prepared.

Thanks

[deltadog03]

Notice how the LLC is every so slightly moving towards the deep convection. Still don't think this is going to spend too much time over the yuc.

[weatherguru18]

Yeah, no thanks...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rita ... uation.jpg

[SkyDragon]

Finally, I was wondering when Dolly would be named. The NHC is forecasting this to be a Strong TS or even a hurricane.

[Cape Verde]

I know the Houston area is essentially out of the probability cone AS OF THIS MINUTE, but I really wonder what would happen if it became a real threat to the area.

Millions tried to evacuate for Rita and dozens died in the effort, which turned out not to be needed in hindsight.

I'm not sure most will even risk that evacuation fiasco.

Yeah, but out all those who did evacuate was also the ones who did need to, the people in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area.

It's true. I believe there was only one death associated with the actual storm in Beaumont because those guys hightailed it out of there. And the devastation was incredible. Even 90 miles north in Jasper, huge trees were snapped in half.

[wzrgirl1]

short periods of time over land can help young systems develop, however, for the friction with the land 'cleans' up broad poorly defined llcs, makes them sharper and more more likely to intensify after they get back over the water.

I've never seen this or heard of this.

didn't Katrina intensify over the everglades in florida before emerging off the west coast?

[Aric Dunn]

this is weird .... the NRL path and forecast path is strange possibly a mess up .. but it shows the dolly formed yesterday at some point,??

[weatherguru18]

It dropped to T.S. status for one advisory.

[RL3AO]

this is weird .... the NRL path and forecast path is strange possibly a mess up .. but it shows the dolly formed yesterday at some point,??

It has had TS force winds since yesterday. Its probably reading that from the ATCF file.

[SkyDragon]

It dropped to T.S. status for one advisory.

What do you mean by this?

[rockyman]

The northern edge of the convection is entering the Gulf now.

[HarlequinBoy]

It dropped to T.S. status for one advisory.

What do you mean by this?

Katrina dropped to TS status after crossing S Florida.

[weatherguru18]

It dropped to T.S. status for one advisory.

What do you mean by this?

Katrina dropped to T.S. status for one advisory over the Everglades. Sorry, I should have quoted

[HURAKAN]

[cperez1549]

Hello all. I live in the South Texas area near Brownsville and work with the Pharr Fire Dept and EMC and we just got off the phone in a conference with the State of Texas and NWS BRO and we are getting ready for a possible strike such as transportation, sand bags and evacuation routes and a possible counter flow if in case the storm is to come to a direct hit. We are monitoring the storm close and also the Rio Grande Valley might appear to be small but we at least have over a million people and all agencies including ours are working together and getting prepared.