ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wzrgirl1]

It dropped to T.S. status for one advisory.

What do you mean by this?

Katrina dropped to T.S. status for one advisory over the Everglades. Sorry, I should have quoted

my bad....i thought it had at least maintained or strenghthened slightly because it was only over land (moist everglades) for about 7 hours......back to dolly...........

[weatherguru18]

It sure looks like the LLC is being pulled northward slowly. This is right in line with what I said about the LLC reforming under the deepest convection...except instead of reforming, it's just moving north.

[weatherSnoop]

Is this the center, or is it some other situation?

[funster]

Hello all. I live in the South Texas area near Brownsville and work with the Pharr Fire Dept and EMC and we just got off the phone in a conference with the State of Texas and NWS BRO and we are getting ready for a possible strike such as transportation, sand bags and evacuation routes and a possible counter flow if in case the storm is to come to a direct hit. We are monitoring the storm close and also the Rio Grande Valley might appear to be small but we at least have over a million people and all agencies including ours are working together and getting prepared.

I hope you all have a safe, smooth evacuation!

[rockyman]

Is this the center, or is it some other situation?

Looks more like a mid-level vortex...If the center is going to "reform", I would think it would be somewhere in between that mid-level swirl and the current LLC

[cheezyWXguy]

Is this the center, or is it some other situation?

What you see there is the MLC that everyone last night thought that the LLC was under. Now that the LLC is taking over, the MLC is weakening and its convection is beginning to wrap around the storm.

[KWT]

The cente ris right under that deep convection on the SW side, run a loop and you'll see the convection explode over it weatherSnoop.

Before we get too concerned about this system I suggest we watch how it does over the Yucatan, IMO it may only be over land for 12hrs so may not weaken hugely in that time and if thats the case then who knows what this could do in the gulf under good conditions.

[bvigal]

CENTER: 080720-1800Z - Advisory 1A - 18.6N 84.5W

[vaffie]

Is this the center, or is it some other situation?

it's a midlevel circulation. it's dying though and giving it's energy to the low level circulation.

[tpr1967]

Is this the center, or is it some other situation?

No the center is further to the south near the blob of deeper convection.

[KWT]

Looks more like a mid-level vortex...If the center is going to "reform", I would think it would be somewhere in between that mid-level swirl and the current LLC

I'd see no reason why the LLC would reform it may get dragged a little further north thanks to this feature but right nowe its probably strengthening under a convective blow-up.

[weatherSnoop]

Thanks for the response/explanation. Trying to teach my eyes to recognize levels.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not to brag, but has anyone noticed how close the official NHC forecast is to my unofficial and amateur forecast posted about 20 pages back? I think 60 knots may be a touch on the low side, but it is in my ballpark.

Ouch!

Just pulled a muscle patting myself on the back.


On an unrelated note, 18Z models and especially 0Z models should have pretty accurate location info in them. I may wake up 20 minutes earlier than normal tomorrow to check 0Z models before work...

[weatherguru18]

Well like they say, the safest place to be is directly in the middle of the cone 4 to 5 days out. LOL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hello all. I live in the South Texas area near Brownsville and work with the Pharr Fire Dept and EMC and we just got off the phone in a conference with the State of Texas and NWS BRO and we are getting ready for a possible strike such as transportation, sand bags and evacuation routes and a possible counter flow if in case the storm is to come to a direct hit. We are monitoring the storm close and also the Rio Grande Valley might appear to be small but we at least have over a million people and all agencies including ours are working together and getting prepared.

On my advice, mi suegro called his brother, my wife's Tio Fito, and advised him to beat the rush for water, gas, Home Depot. They live in La Joya. I suspect hurricane watches may go up sometime tomorrow, and then the stores will be jammed.

[TheRingo]

This looks like where LLC will cross.

[Smurfwicked]

This looks like where LLC will cross.

I think you might be right about where it begins to cross but I see it angled more coming off a bit closer to the narrow tip of the peninsula. JMO

[sphelps8681]

I keep reading how some people will stay next time a Hurricane comes. Let me tell you the after math was horrible, it was like being in a war zone. No one to help, no where to go.

I live in Lumberton Tx which is North of Beaumont. The day after Rita hit I heard they were selling ice in Kountze about 20 miles north. When my son and I went we were able to get ice and some food. One of the local grocery stores in Kountze was wheeling out grocery carts full of meats that would go bad because of no power. The people there would run up to these carts and grab as much meat as they could. It was not a pretty site. People are not so friendly when your under those kind of conditions.

After getting what we needed we headed back to Lumberton only to be stopped by law enforcement, which took sitting an hour in line just to get to the police officer only to be told I could not go back into Lumberton. I tried to explain to him that my family was there and I was trying to get back to them. He would not let me through and I had to turn around. Here I was with a 7 year old very little gas and no where to go. I decided no, and I turned back only to have to sit in traffic another hour. He looked at me and said I seen you before, I said yes but you don't understand, I have a 7 year old and very little gas and would he please let me back to go to my family. He said no. With very little hope of getting anywhere I told the officer ok. But this time I just kept going toward Lumberton. I thought I would be safer in jail than on the road with a 7 year old.

The point is you don't want to put you or your family through such a horrible ordeal.

Sorry so long.

[randge]

Is the ULL everyone's been talking about for days that large wisp of vapor that moving across from east to west north of the Yucatan Strait?

What effect is it having on Dolly's path and intensification at the moment?

[vaffie]

very valuable comments sphelps. thanks.