ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[AJC3]

Looking at the visibles: to me it looks like the LLC I've been watching all day (SW of most of the convection) has fallen apart in the last few frames. I think the center will relocate further NE overnight (if it is not already happening).

I think that's very possible, considering it's only a formative 40kt TC. It'll be nice to get a few fixes from the next RECON flight. A good MI pass between now and then would be nice to have.

I doubt its reforming right now...take a look. Very deep convection has formed again over the llc, and convection is building into the west half of the system. If strengthening has happened yet in this storm, its bound to happen within the next few hours.

Yuppers. What I was concurring with was the possibility of this occurring overnight, as he had mentioned.

[KWT]

Yep neat little burst right over the center RL3AO, interesting to hear the discussion about this possibly ending up reforming a little further to the north though the center does look like its tightening up somewhat though close to where the center is at the moment. We will have to see!

[ColdFusion]

Interesting bit from the 5pm discussion....

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY
REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT
ALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END. IT
IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.

[KWT]

Interesting ColdFusion lookis like they have extraped the recon place and used the motion they estimated to get that placement.

As for center reformation, whats interesting is the NHC does mention that the center is a little less defined then it was this morning which may be a sign of that process occuring.

[jasons2k]

I think late tonight land interaction may come into play - if most of the convection is offshore expect the LLC to tuck under there.

[zaqxsw75050]

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

According to this, the LLC is not under the recent blast of convection but to just a little west of it.

[cycloneye]

[jasons2k]

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

According to this, the LLC is not under the recent blast of convection but to just a little west of it.

Yes, that is what I'm looking at, and it looks less-defined than it did earlier IMO.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like my flight out of Houston Friday will be fine.

[ColdFusion]

Weakening ridge, slower motion, good upper level environment.... Should make for an interesting 24 hours after reaching the Gulf.

[TexWx]

So the 4pm takes it a little further south...

that's good to hear.
I guess my cousin who lives in South Padre will be coming up to Houston.

[Cape Verde]

The NHC is now predicting hurricane status before landfall. That's a switch.

[ROCK]

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

According to this, the LLC is not under the recent blast of convection but to just a little west of it.

Yes, that is what I'm looking at, and it looks less-defined than it did earlier IMO.

19N I would have to agree with this...just be looking at my measly hi-res vis....now 85W...not to sure that is right on....if it is...its not looking to good...

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting ColdFusion lookis like they have extraped the recon place and used the motion they estimated to get that placement.

As for center reformation, whats interesting is the NHC does mention that the center is a little less defined then it was this morning which may be a sign of that process occuring.

yeah this a pretty good give away that there is some reforming going on with the circulation..

"ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT
QUITE AS WELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY"

[KWT]

I agree jasons the LLC does look a little weaker then it was before and thats based up by recon.

cycloneye, just south of Texas but close enough to be very uncertain about it, also note its only going to be over the Yucatan for about 12hrs, probably won't weaken the system hugely IMO.

rock, I think that estimate is just an extrap from the recon position.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A question, if it is 65 knots offshore, and 35 knots 24 hours later inland, is there an official NHC landfall intensity forecast?

[funster]

So the 4pm takes it a little further south...

that's good to hear.
I guess my cousin who lives in South Padre will be coming up to Houston.

In the discussion they don't seem to know where exactly Dolly is going to go. There are still too many unknowns. What a perplexing system.

[AJC3]

[zaqxsw75050]

According to this, the LLC is not under the recent blast of convection but to just a little west of it.

Yes, that is what I'm looking at, and it looks less-defined than it did earlier IMO.

19N I would have to agree with this...just be looking at my measly hi-res vis....now 85W...not to sure that is right on....if it is...its not looking to good...

That's why reformation or relocation of LLC would be possible.

[zaqxsw75050]

lol, very true. there is no way to see through all those cloud unless the center is exposed.