ACE for Dolly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This should be interesting. Post updates on the Ace of Dolly.

I say 7.5 Ace.

[Mecklenburg]

9.5

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm gonna go along with 8.5

[cycloneye]

10.5

[KWT]

7.8

[Cryomaniac]

11.0

[Cyclenall]

7.2 ACE at the end.

[Honeyko]

If she misses or only clips the Yucatan on a forecast-defying NW track through the channel (as now appears possible) and is a cat1 by 11am and a cat2 by 11pm....and bombs, Katrina-like, to a cat-5 over the loop-current by 24hrs after that, and maintains that intensity until weakening a bit to cat-4 12hrs before landfall over that noted graveyard of hurricanes, Kennedy County, TX....and otherwise the position times are similar to the NHC -- what will the ACE be?

[americanrebel]

I will put my prediction at 17.7

[RattleMan]

Here's my ACE chart for Dolly as of 21/0300z:

http://sonicfighters.com/rattleman/othe ... _0300z.htm

[Cyclenall]

I will put my prediction at 17.7

Are you expecting Dolly to become a category 5 hurricane?

[RattleMan]

I will put my prediction at 17.7

Are you expecting Dolly to become a category 5 hurricane?

It would have to do something like this to reach 17.7:

[americanrebel]

With the trend of it staying over water for at least 3 to 6 days, there is a possibility of it having RI and becoming a Cat 5 (even if it is for only one or two advisories). I just won't be shocked by anything she will do.

[Mecklenburg]

the most that i can expect from dolly is a weak category 3 storm...

[Mecklenburg]

i'll just place it at 12.6

[americanrebel]

the most that i can expect from dolly is a weak category 3 storm...

Not to put you down or anything, but how long have you followed Hurricanes in the GoM?

Storms in the GoM can intensify so fast you won't even know what hit you. Katrina leaving Florida as a Cat 1 gets all the way up to Cat 5 before decreasing back to Cat 3 for landfall due to the shallow waters on the mouth of the Mississippi. Rita barely being anything then exploding up to Cat 4, then down to Cat 2/3 for landfall. And Lily before making landfall had gotten all the way up to Cat 4 just about 100 miles from offshore before a quick decline to Cat 2 at landfall. I think I remember the facts about these storms correctly, I could be wrong but I don't think so.

[Mecklenburg]

the most that i can expect from dolly is a weak category 3 storm...

Not to put you down or anything, but how long have you followed Hurricanes in the GoM?

Storms in the GoM can intensify so fast you won't even know what hit you. Katrina leaving Florida as a Cat 1 gets all the way up to Cat 5 before decreasing back to Cat 3 for landfall due to the shallow waters on the mouth of the Mississippi. Rita barely being anything then exploding up to Cat 4, then down to Cat 2/3 for landfall. And Lily before making landfall had gotten all the way up to Cat 4 just about 100 miles from offshore before a quick decline to Cat 2 at landfall. I think I remember the facts about these storms correctly, I could be wrong but I don't think so.

but hello, this is july... not august or september...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to doubt my 7.5 prediction of a few days ago. Only around 1 something now.

[Ad Novoxium]

the most that i can expect from dolly is a weak category 3 storm...

Not to put you down or anything, but how long have you followed Hurricanes in the GoM?

Storms in the GoM can intensify so fast you won't even know what hit you. Katrina leaving Florida as a Cat 1 gets all the way up to Cat 5 before decreasing back to Cat 3 for landfall due to the shallow waters on the mouth of the Mississippi. Rita barely being anything then exploding up to Cat 4, then down to Cat 2/3 for landfall. And Lily before making landfall had gotten all the way up to Cat 4 just about 100 miles from offshore before a quick decline to Cat 2 at landfall. I think I remember the facts about these storms correctly, I could be wrong but I don't think so.

but hello, this is july... not august or september...

Audrey was a June storm in the GoM, and it reached Cat 4. There may be some doubt, but as it stand...

[RattleMan]

Current ACE as of 22/2100 + Statistics:

http://sonicfighters.com/rattleman/othe ... _2100z.htm