ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Duddy]

20.1 North / 85.5 West

[Steve]

>>Thank you CapeVerde...I thought the intent of this board was to talk and ask question...not get slammed every time you to ask one.

Nobody is slamming you. You typed it exactly as it is quoted below:

Nobody has answered the question about the Ridge...is it OR is it NOT supposed to weaken over the nothern gulf?

You were then directed to the official information source that brought up that mid-level ridge to begin with. Not only shouldn't you freak and bust in some capital letters (reads like screaming as it has since the early 1990's) but don't be hyper sensitive. It's the million dollar question that will play out. There is no immediate answer as no one on this site happens to be God (that I know of). Don't get mad, just pay attention.

Steve

[stevetampa33614]

Shouldn't 94L be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras by now?
What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane?

I was wondering this too. But then I realized its just not going to have enough time and its still fighting off a ULL. At the most a Cat 2 or strong Cat 1. Thats it. The energy just isnt there to blow this up into a Cat 4. If Im wrong ill post Goatse and ban myself from this forum.

[KWT]

What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane? If the upper winds are as the GFS is forecasting, look for a period of rapid intensification in the SW Gulf Monday evening/Tuesday.

Agreed I've said before somewhere else that a cat-2/3 is quite possible under these conditions...I guess the NHC are just waiting to see what the Yucatan does to this system IMO.

[funster]

Shouldn't 94L be inland over Nicaragua/Honduras by now?
What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane?

I was wondering this too. But then I realized its just not going to have enough time and its still fighting off a ULL. At the most a Cat 2 or strong Cat 1. Thats it. The energy just isnt there to blow this up into a Cat 4. If Im wrong ill post Goatse and ban myself from this forum.

Noooooo - I hate it when people post those

[MiamiensisWx]

Hmm - they did not send a Vortex Data Message in the vicinity of the old LLC.

That sounds like a reformation further north.

[stevetampa33614]

The LLC shifted fromthe W and is now right smack in the center like I said. The Eye/Center is going to rake Cancun perfectly or may miss landfall altogether. 2-0

[Javlin]

Hmm - they did not send a Vortex Data Message in the vicinity of the old LLC.

That sounds like a reformation further north.

Yea they are flying in the direction everyone is looking at here lately should tell the truth of the matter.

pressures are dropping lets see if it continues

225800 1901N 08407W 6149 04219 0080 +036 +036 202023 025 040 007 00
225830 1903N 08407W 6158 04209 0080 +037 +037 193028 028 040 010 00
225900 1906N 08407W 6148 04225 0074 +040 +040 211026 029 036 014 00

[deltadog03]

Ok, have to head back into work, but it appears** after looking at zoomed in vis shots...If you look were the current burst of cold cloud tops are.. Just on the SE or ESE side of that complex you can clearly see low level clouds spinning around underneath that. So, IMO think this has just about linked up with the MLC and has reformed a bit N or NE of the old location. Lets see what REcon says!

[HURAKAN]

They are flying at almost 14,000 feet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The CoC shifted fromthe W and is now right smack in the center like I said. The Eye/Center is going to rake Cancun perfectly and may miss landfall altogether.

Wouldn't Dolly have to make a 90º right turn to hit Cancun but miss the Yucatan?

[KWT]

Thats quite possible deltadog03, the older center was weakening before so it may well be the case that its reformed and become better stacked further north with the MLC. Will have to wait a little while yet to see if thats actually the case or not.

[deltadog03]

They are flying at almost 14,000 feet.

By looking at what your posting under the recon reports it looks like to me that this has reformed NE of the old location. Guess we will find out soon.

[Cape Verde]

Thank you CapeVerde...I thought the intent of this board was to talk and ask question...not get slammed every time you to ask one.

It is, or at least it was. I've learned TONS here. I rarely see an intelligent question slammed.

Once in awhile a stupid question gets asked and then you just kind of cringe.

But mostly, sincere questions get sincere answers.

We have all levels of people here from weather novices wondering what's going to happen and not really understanding weather features yet, to the very advanced pros who have studied this for a living. That's a great mix for learning as long as people remain friendly.

[Javlin]

pressures dropping going N

225800 1901N 08407W 6149 04219 0080 +036 +036 202023 025 040 007 00
225830 1903N 08407W 6158 04209 0080 +037 +037 193028 028 040 010 00
225900 1906N 08407W 6148 04225 0074 +040 +040 211026 029 036 014 00

[wxman57]

Ok, one more post before dinner. To give you all an idea what might steer Dolly, I plotted the 700-400mb steering level winds (10,000-20,000ft) from the 18Z GFS for the next 4 days. Here are the runs with High centers and Dolly's position indicated. Fairly strong ridge to the north, but Dolly could easily track into the lower to mid TX coast if the timing is right.

Too tired to post this in the models section. If someone wants to - go for it.

Oh, and it looks like the S2K server is crashing again. Can't post.

[Air Force Met]

What's up with the ideal conditions aloft for strengthening and only a 75 mph hurricane? If the upper winds are as the GFS is forecasting, look for a period of rapid intensification in the SW Gulf Monday evening/Tuesday.

Agreed I've said before somewhere else that a cat-2/3 is quite possible under these conditions...I guess the NHC are just waiting to see what the Yucatan does to this system IMO.

Uh...there is plenty of energy for a Cat 4...

[MiamiensisWx]

It makes sense that the old LLC has dissipated and co-located with the MLC. The greatest ascent (and thunderstorm development) from the divergence provided by the upper low is further north, denoted by the cluster of thunderstorms on GOES IR/visible imagery. The intensity of the thunderstorms and the very high tops (with some overshooting ones) suggests that low level inflow is intensifying because of the strong convection. Very large releases of latent heat are evident, and rapid ascent of parcels is occurring because of the very unstable boundary layer. Some of the highest OHC (oceanic heat content) in the entire basin is in the area. Vorticity at 850 mb is increasing. Overall, all indications suggest that a new LLC is forming under the main area of convection. The plane recently flew over the vicinity of the old LLC and obs did not indicate a wind shift in the previous sets. They're heading toward the main cluster of thunderstorms now...

[Wx_Warrior]

great post thanks for all your work

[gatorcane]

MiamiWx yes that is what I started seeing a couple of hours ago.

I think some pretty signficant changes to the track are in store for the 11PM advisory. Cone should be farther to the right IMHO.