H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[hiflyer]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

[LAwxrgal]

Since when has there ever been 2 named storms threatening or close to the US coastline at the same time? NHC is busy now...

[hiflyer]

I'd love to fly if they had a civilian ride along program.

I have been a passenger in Galaxy and Starlifters, and even the C-2 Greyhound, never a Hercules.


But the WC-130J, built this century, just looks so much sturdier to me than the thirty year old Orions, which just don't look at sturdy. IIRC, the Orion was based on a 1950s passenger plane, the Electra, which had a less than outstanding safety record for passenger planes of the era. Not exactly the De Havilland Comet or anything, but kind of like the 1970s DC-10, which had an accident rate per passenger mile almost triple the similar L-1011.

The Electra/P3 platform is a tank....the early accidents were due to wing span which was quickly corrected....those airframes are still flying for the Navy and do not even start being replaced until next year with a variant of the 737. In the airline industry they were known as stump pullers as those 4 Allison motors are just overpowering.... FYI there is a common heritage between the 130 and the electra/p3....same era of design and manufacturer.

[cycloneye]

VDM shortly

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd love to fly if they had a civilian ride along program.

I have been a passenger in Galaxy and Starlifters, and even the C-2 Greyhound, never a Hercules.


But the WC-130J, built this century, just looks so much sturdier to me than the thirty year old Orions, which just don't look at sturdy. IIRC, the Orion was based on a 1950s passenger plane, the Electra, which had a less than outstanding safety record for passenger planes of the era. Not exactly the De Havilland Comet or anything, but kind of like the 1970s DC-10, which had an accident rate per passenger mile almost triple the similar L-1011.

The Electra/P3 platform is a tank....the early accidents were due to wing span which was quickly corrected....those airframes are still flying for the Navy and do not even start being replaced until next year with a variant of the 737. In the airline industry they were known as stump pullers as those 4 Allison motors are just overpowering.... FYI there is a common heritage between the 130 and the electra/p3....same era of design and manufacturer.

The Hercules is from the 1950s, but the J models are only a few years old, and I was of the impression both WP-3Ds were early 1970s vintage. And a Navy submarine patrol plane doesn't do eyewall penetrations on a regular basis like its NOAA counterpart.


I do remember, since my dad was flight dispatch at American, and I had an interest in planes, Eastern Airlines had Electras into the late 60s or early 1970s, as I remember seeing them. I was six in 1970, not sure exactly when I saw my last Electra. But I was impressed, in the days before commuter airlines, that major airlines still had prop planes.

[Ivanhater]

They are where the center was, should'nt there be a VDM soon?..Will be interesting when they get a fix and how strong it is compared to earlier...

[Derek Ortt]

VDM shortly

they did not fly through the center. The storm would have had to have increased its velocity to 30KT to be in that position

I think they flew around the center.

These flights are not purely operational. They are also for HWRF development

[BigA]

VDM shortly

they did not fly through the center. The storm would have had to have increased its velocity to 30KT to be in that position

I think they flew around the center.

These flights are not purely operational. They are also for HWRF development

So it has probably deepened a bit if the pressure found is 1006 a bit away from the center versus 1008 at the center earlier today?

[srainhoutx]

VDM shortly

they did not fly through the center. The storm would have had to have increased its velocity to 30KT to be in that position

I think they flew around the center.

These flights are not purely operational. They are also for HWRF development

13,800 Ft Alt

[cycloneye]

VDM shortly

they did not fly through the center. The storm would have had to have increased its velocity to 30KT to be in that position

I think they flew around the center.

These flights are not purely operational. They are also for HWRF development

13,800 Ft Alt

Yes,I didnt realize it was the NOAA plane doing this mission.

[Nimbus]

I wonder if some of those later recon flights will be for upper air analysis?
Figuring out exactly how the ridging is going to evolve could be crucial.

In the short term the ULL to the west has been filling in so now we have a big ball of convection. Who knows whats under there.
AFM said this morning that the shear from that ULL might continue to relocate the center further north so this recon fix may reinitialize the models.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC appears to be above 19 north now. Everything south of that is westly 200-280 degree's.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder if some of those later recon flights will be for upper air analysis?
Figuring out exactly how the ridging is going to evolve could be crucial.

In the short term the ULL to the west has been filling in so now we have a big ball of convection. Who knows whats under there.
AFM said this morning that the shear from that ULL might continue to relocate the center further north so this recon fix may reinitialize the models.

I believe the POD tomorrow has two NOAA9 Gulfstream flights collecting high altitude data.

Code: Select all

4. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 21/1800Z                A. 22/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 1104A DOLLY       B. NOAA9 1204A DOLLY
       C. 21/1430Z                C. 21/1730Z
       D. 21.1N 91.0W             D. NA
       E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2100Z    E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. 41000 TO 45,000 FT
       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43    FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
       A. 22/0000Z                A. 22/0600Z
       B. NOAA3 1304A DOLLY       B. AFXXX 1404A DOLLY
       C. 21/2000Z                C. 22/0245Z
       D. 22.2N 92.2 W            D. 22.7N 93.1W
       E. 21/2200Z TO 22/0200Z    E. 22/0500Z TO 22/0800Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49     FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
       A. 22/1200Z                A. 22/1200Z
       B. NOAA9 1504A DOLLY       B. NOAA2 1604A DOLLY
       C. 22/0130Z                C. 22/0800Z
       D. NA                      D. 23.0N 94.0W
       E. NA                      E. 22/1000Z TO 22/1400Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT     F. SFC TO 14,000 FT
    5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES 22/1500Z.


[srainhoutx]

NOAA G-IV is also flying at this time I believe.

[Seadootoo]

I wonder if some of those later recon flights will be for upper air analysis?
Figuring out exactly how the ridging is going to evolve could be crucial.

In the short term the ULL to the west has been filling in so now we have a big ball of convection. Who knows whats under there.
AFM said this morning that the shear from that ULL might continue to relocate the center further north so this recon fix may reinitialize the models.

The GIV is flying around as we speak

[Derek Ortt]

they extrapolated from 4km,

I'll wait until they pass through the center before determining if this has intensified

[CrazyC83]

From 650mb reports of FL winds of 56 kt and SFMR of 50-55 kt.

[pojo]

It seems like people always question the NHC everytime they decide to fly into 94L. The truth is, the 00z GFDL and HWRF showed a category 5 hurricane smashing the United States in 5 days. Imagine the uproar if people thought the NHC was laid back on the situation and did not get all the data they could get to prepare everyone. I fully agree with this decision they have made. It's nice to have a steady hand at the wheel.

Checking it now (when it doesn't appear to have a LLC) doesn't affect anything that happens 5 days from now. Beyond the people who frequent these weather boards, who cares about the Hurricane Hunters flying in? They do an amazing service and I thank them for that but the vast majority of the American public has no clue what they do. Does that make what they do unimportant? Certainly not. Neither does it justify your statement either.

thank you!!!!

to answer another question, we cannot air refuel.

[gboudx]

From the Google Earth map, they've been out there a long time and seem to be flying all over the place. Are they having trouble finding the COC or finding multiples and investigating? Or other?

[Ivanhater]

From the Google Earth map, they've been out there a long time and seem to be flying all over the place. Are they having trouble finding the COC or finding multiples and investigating? Or other?

They are checking the wind swath..