Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[Hyperstorm]

It's quite possible that it is classified as soon as it moves off the coast. The system is very well defined with a distinct low pressure center. If it were over water right now, it would be a tropical storm because some observations in Africa have reported tropical storm force winds. It is near 15N, so development after it is classified as a tropical depression or storm should be slow. But, it could be a competitor to Tropical Storm Christine in 1973 for the most eastern tropical storm to form.

BTW, as MiamiensisWx mentioned, this is not the first time the NHC is bullish on a system when it's inland over Africa, although it's been a while since that happened. I especially recall a similar tropical weather outlook for the wave that spawned Hurricane Alberto in 2000. I wish I had saved it since it is so rare.

[LAwxrgal]

Question, if this thing organizes as soon as we (and the NHC) thinks it will, would it be more likely to turn north and away from the US?

[Cryomaniac]

If it were over water right now, it would be a tropical storm because some observations in Africa have reported tropical storm force winds.

Is it possible it gets named as soon as it hits the water then

[CrazyC83]

Maybe even before emerging? Christine did it...

[abajan]

It certainly looks very impressive now but is the environment ahead of it really conducive for development? For one thing, there appears to be much dry air around.

[blp]

This wave might be similar to the wave the spawned Hurricane Donna when she exited Africa.

Donna was first detected as a tropical wave moving off the African coast on August 29. It became a tropical storm over the tropical Atlantic the next day and a hurricane on September 1.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml

The big difference is that this wave will exit further North than were Donna exited.

[njweather]

Hmm, I'm looking at the 18z GFS, and it appears that another wave is forecasted to move off the coast some 120-140 hours after this one....

[CrazyC83]

Are there any radars out there?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Question, if this thing organizes as soon as we (and the NHC) thinks it will, would it be more likely to turn north and away from the US?

More often than not the answer is yes, but there have been noteworthy exceptions from time to time. Check out my post from a couple of days ago...

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

Yes, more often than not, a storm coming off Africa near the latitude of the Cape Verde islands will recurve. However, it should be noted that there have been many notable exceptions to this in years past...

1928 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
1938 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1938 ... _track.png
1947 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
Hurricane Hugo - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
Hurricane Fran - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fran_1996_track.png

For now, all we can really do with the current system is watch it and see how things evolve.

[Cyclenall]

As others have said, I have NEVER heard that type of wording in a TWO from a African Wave. Rarely does a TWO mention a wave still over Africa...and this is July for heaven's sakes. To top it off, this is coming from Franklin!!

[CrazyC83]

It almost looks like a tropical storm right now!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Avila would say that there is a slight chance of development over the next few days. I think this will become a tropical storm as it moves off the coast.

[alan1961]

Here is a good view of the wave coming off Africa http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/g ... d=1&size=1

use this username and password to access it

username-England
password-atz538

[wzrgirl1]

Here is a good view of the wave coming off Africa http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/g ... d=1&size=1

use this username and password to access it

username-England
password-atz538

i tried it and the password didn't work....on another note i tried to compare to 2005....and this point that year, we had 6 storms....and we could have our 5th in the next couple of days....only 1 off....eerie similar huh?

[blp]

Wow! TS Christine formed as a Depression at 14W over land.

Date: 25 AUG-4 SEP 1973
Tropical Storm CHRISTINE
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 11.00 -14.00 08/25/12Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[alan1961]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

these waves have been coming off of Africa and sinking down where the ITCZ is KWT, mainly due to the atlantic high, i think this current wave exiting the african coast will follow suit IMO and obviously reduce in size as well like they all do, but yes, it certainly looks impressive, wait and see thing again as always.

[alan1961]

Question, if this thing organizes as soon as we (and the NHC) thinks it will, would it be more likely to turn north and away from the US?

if it turned north soon as it exited the coast LAWXRGAL it would hit the UK before the US ..we may see the remnants of Bertha in the next 2 days so we dont want another little surprise

[stormchazer]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

these waves have been coming off of Africa and sinking down where the ITCZ is KWT, mainly due to the atlantic high, i think this current wave exiting the african coast will follow suit IMO and obviously reduce in size as well like they all do, but yes, it certainly looks impressive, wait and see thing again as always.

Doesn't the Monsoon Trough that is usually anchored off the African West Coast in the summer also tend to draw storms south initially as the exit the coast?

[abajan]

Here is a good view of the wave coming off Africa http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/g ... d=1&size=1

use this username and password to access it

username-England
password-atz538

i tried it and the password didn't work....on another note i tried to compare to 2005....and this point that year, we had 6 storms....and we could have our 5th in the next couple of days....only 1 off....eerie similar huh?

Why not just create your own account for FREE and you'll be able to view all of their satellite pix. I (and probably many other S2K members) have been using their service for years now.

[Honeyko]

Wow! TS Christine formed as a Depression at 14W over land.

I'm sure that's just a data/typing screw-up...there's no way the NHC would have any way of measuring the profile of a blob over central Niger, and certainly not in 1973.