ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

021030 2028N 08545W 6649 03567 0065 +081 +042 260025 029 025 005 00
021100 2026N 08546W 6650 03566 0062 +083 +035 272022 023 024 002 00
021130 2025N 08547W 6651 03566 0065 +082 +034 281016 019 023 000 00
021200 2023N 08549W 6648 03569 0061 +085 +035 274009 012 022 000 00

center above 20N?

Those west winds tell me a new center is forming above 20 north.

[Wx_Warrior]

Actually, models have been pretty consistent thus far. Waiting for the 10pm then 2am EURO.

[sevenleft]

There are SFMR and flight level winds from the P-3 coming out of the SW (at 20-30 knots) 70 miles east of the northern tip of Cozumel. These barbs point toward the center of the convection.

[gatorcane]

NHC has not released their 11PM EST yet. That's a little interesting.

I imagine there are some hard decisions going on at the NHC right now.

[jhamps10]

Early operational 00z still focuses in on the lower TX/upper Mex coast. Will be interesting to see if this changes at all as there isn't a big spread at all IMHO.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

keep in mind though I belive the Divorak numbers had the center above 20N, whereas that image has it initalized at the 19N area, and that post above where recon MAY be finding a center above 20N.

[Chacor]

NHC has not released their 11PM EST yet. That's a little interesting.

I imagine there are some hard decisions going on at the NHC right now.

Still ten minutes to 11, patience.

[Chacor]

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT

[Steve]

Agreed. Christobal's is out. There may be some uncertainty. We shall see shortly.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

check the flight level

they are flying at 3.5km!

[gatorcane]

NHC has not released their 11PM EST yet. That's a little interesting.

I imagine there are some hard decisions going on at the NHC right now.

Still ten minutes to 11, patience.

Usually they release it at least 15 minutes early.

[Chacor]

THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW.

o_O

[ROCK]

Actually, models have been pretty consistent thus far. Waiting for the 10pm then 2am EURO.

dont think models are going to due much good until the center stops jacken around...IMO of course...

[Javlin]

there does appear to be a center @20.8N and 86.8W but does it spit it out and reform as has been suggested follow the convection?yep,I'm there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Dean4Storms]

WTNT44 KNHC 210251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS
ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER
EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN
THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY
TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM
ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE
QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[stevetampa33614]

NHC has not released their 11PM EST yet. That's a little interesting.

I imagine there are some hard decisions going on at the NHC right now.

Still ten minutes to 11, patience.

Usually they release it at least 15 minutes early.

Maybe its a long one. whos on desk anyway? Franklin

[Derek Ortt]

NHC's discussion also said its probably an open wave

[Wx_Warrior]

Now some are questioning the NHC because they haven't posted yet? Come on guys...LOL

[ColdFusion]

THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW.

o_O

According to the 11pm discussion, you, my friend, are correct.!

[gatorcane]

WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.

interesting.

[Dean4Storms]

Like I said, I think the center is possibly going to reform further NNE overnight if it hasn't already.