ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

except there is likely not anything where Aric drew the center

its closer to 20N

[Texas Snowman]

I agree, I think this is going to slide through or very near to the Channel w/very limited disruption of this developing TC.

And it seems to me that this storm has had a northerly bias throughout its life history, so I'm thinking that when all is said and done, central Texas between Corpus and Port O'Connor could be the spot where a landfall occurs.

If this does go through the YC or with a very limited brush of the YP, I think intensity will be a big problem. A lot of warm water to track across and favorable upper air parameters. I was earlier thinking Cat 2, low end Cat 3. If this slides through the YC, an approach close to Cat 4 strength may happen.

[mattpetre]

except there is likely not anything where Aric drew the center

its closer to 20N

I would tend to disagree. I believe Aric is just drawing the proposed "new" center as it forms under the mid levels and I think this will verify before the night is through. We'll see...

[Aric Dunn]

well i first though that it was mostly in the midlevels but then i realized the radar is in cancun, so with its distance from the radar to the location of the possible new center that only about 2 to 4 thousand feet that the radar is seeing.. any pro mets with better tool can confirm the height at which the bean is seeing.. hard to tell distance from the low quality images .

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm in complete disagreement to where you guys are thinking the eye is....And just because you think it may miss the 'tan, doesn't necessarily mean its going even further north.

[Aric Dunn]

well i first though that it was mostly in the midlevels but then i realized the radar is in cancun, so with its distance from the radar to the location of the possible new center that only about 2 to 4 thousand feet that the radar is seeing.. any pro mets with better tools can you confirm the height at which the bean is seeing.. hard to tell distance from the low quality images .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I do also feel a LLC is developing near there. But we must remember that the radar beam is high off the ground, so it could be a MLC, and there is still a chance that we are dealing with tropical wave dolly. We will have to have this confirmed by recon. Also it appears to be moving at around 285 degrees.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I do also feel a LLC is developing near there. But we must remember that the radar beam is high off the ground, so it could be a MLC, and there is still a chance that we are dealing with tropical wave dolly. We will have to have this confirmed by recon. Also it appears to be moving at around 285 degrees.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB is actually comparing this to Beaulah in his evening update. Warning RGV residents to prepare for similar conditons.

[cheezyWXguy]

except there is likely not anything where Aric drew the center

its closer to 20N

That where the present center is. I dont think aric's center has formed yet, but within the next few hours i can see something forming there. Radar loop suggests some obvious rotation developing in the area, though the center has not formed yet. This will likely be centerless for the next couple of hours, but when it does eventually form, I expect this storm to strengthen significantly.

[PTrackerLA]

except there is likely not anything where Aric drew the center

its closer to 20N

Don't see how you can say that where there isn't anything even showing up on radar in that location.

[mattpetre]

I'm in complete disagreement to where you guys are thinking the eye is....And just because you think it may miss the 'tan, doesn't necessarily mean its going even further north.

Let's all just wait then and let things come to fruition. If the storm misses the Yuc. and hits N. of Corpus are you willing to concede that we weren't 'seeing' things?

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, read that too (Bastardi) Maybe even further south...? Goodness Dolly....This is worse than a 'hard candy christmas'

[GeneratorPower]

This is looking serious.

[MiamiensisWx]

Note that the "old" LLC further south has dissipated... no rotation is discernible.

Additionally, the "new" LLC on radar is nearly perfectly juxtaposed with the MLC and is under the strong convection.

Cancun radar for reference:

http://www201.lunapic.com/editor/working/121660746443112?1302204555

[Aric Dunn]

I do also feel a LLC is developing near there. But we must remember that the radar beam is high off the ground, so it could be a MLC, and there is still a chance that we are dealing with tropical wave dolly. We will have to have this confirmed by recon. Also it appears to be moving at around 285 degrees.

did you read .. i mentioned the radar height...

[tailgater]

Just getting back from a little trip to MSGC, and I'm not surprised I thought this do develop since Wed.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20d ... AXw01a.gif

[stevetampa33614]

Told ya.

Now watch Hard Bank West or East in the next 24 cause of High Pressure. Everyone in the gulf needs to watch this. Steering currents DO NOT Indicate with even 75% accuracy it goes to texas.

[mattpetre]

I do also feel a LLC is developing near there. But we must remember that the radar beam is high off the ground, so it could be a MLC, and there is still a chance that we are dealing with tropical wave dolly. We will have to have this confirmed by recon. Also it appears to be moving at around 285 degrees.

did you read .. i mentioned the radar height...

BTW, Aric you are a trooper and hero in my mind for producing these images that otherwise would have never been brought into the discussion. Whatever Dolly does, you have brought a new tool to the table and should be commended.

[Steve]

>>Yea, read that too (Bastardi) Maybe even further south...?

Understandable if a squeezeplay comes in from the n/nne/ne and bends it back. Almost all of the models have a similar scenario. Just gotta hang tight and wait.

Steve