ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Nederlander]

edit: nevermind i understand now

[Texas Snowman]

I'm relatively new on this board and while I'm certainly no advanced met and mean no disrespect at all, I'm trying to learn a few things here.

Forgive if this sounds totally ignorant, but I mentioned a northerly bias in an early post. If that proves to be the case tonight, is it due to the venting occuring on Dolly's northern side, as in Dolly is making a move to better conditions for development?

[MiamiensisWx]

Drezee's "fist" is showing up!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[cheezyWXguy]

apologies to steve for the misunderstanding...I know you are very knowledgeable and well respected on this board. I did not mean to direct that towards you

[Nederlander]

I'm relatively new on this board and while I'm certainly no advanced met and mean no disrespect at all, I'm trying to learn a few things here.

Forgive if this sounds totally ignorant, but I mentioned a northerly bias in an early post. If that proves to be the case tonight, is it due to the venting occuring on Dolly's northern side, as in Dolly is making a move to better conditions for development?

Here is my unprofessional opinion. Two things that I would point at is that Dolly has kept a slightly more northern track than the models suggested early on, and two, earlier, the LLC we had is no longer there and a new LLC may be forming where the MLC is. The flare up of convection seems to suggest that also...


Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course.

[mattpetre]

Some of you newer folks need to start showing a little more respect to the pros and Older members, quick way to get banned..

anyways the MLC is in the process of taking over and should be completed overnight..

I don't see any posts with lack of respect, just possible heated discussions about a storm that doesn't seem to be doing what everyone thinks it will do. I hope you don't believe I'm showing disrespect because that is not the case at all, I simply want to dig and find the truth about this storm. I think it may be just as important to show respect for the opinions of those that may seem new here, but have also been watching these storms for many years now. I do believe that Dolly will be quite a bit further north than NHC and many (but not all) pro mets here seem to think. Not a lack of respect just a different opinion. If I were to say something like "It WILL not hit the Yucatan" and leave it at that (like some have said that it will not matter what hit the Yucatan) I would be chastised to no end... I just ask then, what if it does not? What if it is not dead yet Jim? What if it is a storm that we don't quite understand? Does that make me a person that deserves to be banned? I don't get it...

[tailgater]

sorry about the crudeness..

doing a mouse cursor track, it would have to go just about due west or a hair north of due west now for it to hit the Yucatan. Looks like it very well could miss it all together.

I think what we are seeing is still just the MLC which is rotating around the Main center. But that's just a guess at this point.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... e&itype=ir

[Wx_Warrior]

Snowy...I think the consensus is a strengthening. IMHO, it won't be Cat 3-4.

[Sanibel]

Hey, someone call up the NHC and tell them we think we found the center.

[ROCK]

Hey, someone call up the NHC and tell them we think we found the center.

please do..... my eyes hurt.....later fellows....gals....

[funster]

I think wxman57 said earlier to follow the convection. However, without scrolling back many pages I cannot be positive.

[cheezyWXguy]

Snowy...I think the consensus is a strengthening. IMHO, it won't be Cat 3-4.

As much as I would like to agree with you, its certainly possible for this storm to eventually reach such a strength

[TexWx]

all i know is that there's high pressure parked in front of Galveston.

[artist]

Some of you newer folks need to start showing a little more respect to the pros and Older members, quick way to get banned..

anyways the MLC is in the process of taking over and should be completed overnight..

I don't see any posts with lack of respect, just possible heated discussions about a storm that doesn't seem to be doing what everyone thinks it will do. I hope you don't believe I'm showing disrespect because that is not the case at all, I simply want to dig and find the truth about this storm.

a good starting point would to ask questions then of some of the old pros around here and to listen and evaluate their answers...

[ROCK]

Snowy...I think the consensus is a strengthening. IMHO, it won't be Cat 3-4.

As much as I would like to agree with you, its certainly possible for this storm to eventually reach such a strength

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cheezyWXguy]

all i know is that there's high pressure parked in front of Galveston.

...which is supposed to weaken.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's like looking into those drawings where you focus, you see another photo..LOL....

[Sanibel]

Convection behavior on satellite loops suggests organization centered on the Cancun center.

[Ivanhater]

Hey, someone call up the NHC and tell them we think we found the center.

please do..... my eyes hurt.....later fellows....gals....

Night Rock..see you tomorrow,

[Texas Snowman]

I know this is apples and oranges, but this potential end around the YP that Dolly may be pulling off looks eerily similar to Carla in 1961.