ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[artist]

all i know is that there's high pressure parked in front of Galveston.

...which is supposed to weaken.

I know NHC says its supposed to weaken over the next 72 hours if i remember correctly. But living in Texas nearly all my life don't they also when they begin to move always move off to the northeast? All I really know is the high pressure keeps the storm further south, but not even sure how or if that changes anything and that is what I am asking.

Ivan, I don't know if this is what you are asking but here is the thoughts on wind speeds over the next 120 hrs -


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

But remember that is without a real defined center at this point either, therefore I think that could change.

[Big O]

It has been at least 6 hrs now with the cluster of storms just east of the NE tip of the Yucatan rotating with continuous convection and no convection anywhere south where the old center was suppose to be and tracking to now. That tells me two possible things, 1) either there is no LLC and we are tracking nothing but an MLC imbedded in a wave which could dissapate at anytime or 2) that a new LLC has formed underneath this strong convection. I think it is number 2 from what I'm seeing and come early visibles tomorrow we'll have a monster in the making north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I'm sorry if I'm reposting this, but here goes. I live just west of BRO and have family in C.C. also. If the LLC reforms further north as some/many have been alluding to, would the location of a second landfall (if it does in fact impact the Y.P.) be affected (i.e., nudged more north than the NE Mex/BRO NHC projection) or would there simply be more of a WNW or even west bend later in the forecast period? I'm getting increasingly concerned about this system and want to start finalize preparations before panic sets in. Thanks for your help.

[vbhoutex]

What I am seeing is a center just to the East or NE of Cozumel just under the convection at that point. This is after looking at several different sat loops, both ir and wv and looking at the radar images that have been posted. My amatuer best guess is that the LLCC, and I think there is one, will be going just North of Cozumel and S of Cancun, ie, a small brush with the Yucatan. The question now for the folks in the W GOM is how much will Dolly strengthen and will the ridge hold and protect us in TX.

[curtadams]

Not sure we have an LLC yet. Looking at Aric's loops I see twisting, but no convincing W movement because of the speed of the storm. Maybe we should borrow from W Pacific nomenclature and call this "Severe Tropical Wave Dolly".

If it is an open wave, won't Yucatan friction favor an LLC at the tip of the wave under the MLC? It'll slow inflow and outflow along the axis.

Oh, while the high shielding NE Texas is projected to weaken, it is *not* projected to weaken enough to allow Dolly through. Even a major strength Dolly only would make so much difference - ridges can hold majors down all the way across the Atlantic.

[paintplaye]

What I am seeing is a center just to the East or NE of Cozumel just under the convection at that point. This is after looking at several different sat loops, both ir and wv and looking at the radar images that have been posted. My amatuer best guess is that the LLCC, and I think there is one, will be going just North of Cozumel and S of Cancun, ie, a small brush with the Yucatan. The question now for the folks in the W GOM is how much will Dolly strengthen and will the ridge hold and protect us in TX.

Amen haha. It is a watch and wait situation.

[Aric Dunn]

well .. as its goes right now .. the center is beginning to make landfall

[vbhoutex]

It has been at least 6 hrs now with the cluster of storms just east of the NE tip of the Yucatan rotating with continuous convection and no convection anywhere south where the old center was suppose to be and tracking to now. That tells me two possible things, 1) either there is no LLC and we are tracking nothing but an MLC imbedded in a wave which could dissapate at anytime or 2) that a new LLC has formed underneath this strong convection. I think it is number 2 from what I'm seeing and come early visibles tomorrow we'll have a monster in the making north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I'm sorry if I'm reposting this, but here goes. I live just west of BRO and have family in C.C. also. If the LLC reforms further north as some/many have been alluding to, would the location of a second landfall (if it does in fact impact the Y.P.) be affected (i.e., nudged more north than the NE Mex/BRO NHC projection) or would there simply be more of a WNW or even west bend later in the forecast period? I'm getting increasingly concerned about this system and want to start finalize preparations before panic sets in. Thanks for your help.

You should finalize your preps asap, imo. We all should have the majority of our supplies already no matter where we live.

To answer your question-Yes it does become more of a possibility that 2nd landfall will be further N than currently predicted if indeed the center has reformed N as it appears it has. How much further N depends on several factors with the major one being the strength of the ridge currently over TX and if it holds or weakens. Weakening of this ridge would not bode well for those along the TX coast.

[Chacor]

We'll learn what the NHC thinks in an hour or so. Perhaps there may even be a special advisory if a centre reformation/track change is needed.

[artist]

isn't the loop current in that general vicinity?

[americanrebel]

For all you believers of the Moon telling you the doom and gloom future.

I know my location says I live in Intracoastal City, La. I won't be living down there for a couple more months while we renovate the hotel. I currently live in Crowly, La. and work in Abbeville, La. Yes the two town that were hit the hardest by Hurricane Lilly.

When I was coming to work tonight from Crowley to Louisiana the moon was a bright red tone (blood moon) by Crowley and a slight yellow tone (caution moon) in Abbeville. For those that believe in the doom and gloom forecasting of the moon that would mean that Crowley would be getting something major in the near future and Abbeville might be getting something.

[mattpetre]

well .. as its goes right now .. the center is beginning to make landfall

If half of it makes landfall we all get to be "right". This will be interesting by 8:00am. I guess it's time to call it a night and be alert for tomorrow's craziness with Dolly/4/94L.

[Dean4Storms]

It has been at least 6 hrs now with the cluster of storms just east of the NE tip of the Yucatan rotating with continuous convection and no convection anywhere south where the old center was suppose to be and tracking to now. That tells me two possible things, 1) either there is no LLC and we are tracking nothing but an MLC imbedded in a wave which could dissapate at anytime or 2) that a new LLC has formed underneath this strong convection. I think it is number 2 from what I'm seeing and come early visibles tomorrow we'll have a monster in the making north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I'm sorry if I'm reposting this, but here goes. I live just west of BRO and have family in C.C. also. If the LLC reforms further north as some/many have been alluding to, would the location of a second landfall (if it does in fact impact the Y.P.) be affected (i.e., nudged more north than the NE Mex/BRO NHC projection) or would there simply be more of a WNW or even west bend later in the forecast period? I'm getting increasingly concerned about this system and want to start finalize preparations before panic sets in. Thanks for your help.

I'm not a pro met, but regardless you are in the cone of possible landfall at this point. I would prepare tomorrow for the worse case myself and hope for the best.

With that said, it appears that the center may clip or miss altogether the YP which would mean less disorganization once into the Gulf and more time over warm SST's, little shear which should mean consistant intensification. With the center relocating a little further north it probably will cause the exact forecasted track line generated by the NHC to shift northward a bit. But keep in mind that far out the cone is more important than any line, you should prepare, I would.

[Chacor]

Cancun reporting NE 17 kt (20 mph) winds at 1 ET.

[artist]

live webcam on Cozumel

http://www.cozumel-hotels.net/webcam-playa-del-carmen/
Watch it in the background and you can see the surf is coming in pretty fast.

[Nederlander]

Cancun reporting NE 17 kt (20 mph) winds at 1 ET.

does this mean a center NE of Cancun?

[curtadams]

Oh: Wunderground links for Cancun and Cozumel. As of this posting, Cancun is 20 mph from the NE and Cozumel isn't reporting.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Cancun reporting NE 17 kt (20 mph) winds at 1 ET.

does this mean a center NE of Cancun?

No I am pretty sure it means that the center is west of there.

[curtadams]

Cancun reporting NE 17 kt (20 mph) winds at 1 ET.

does this mean a center NE of Cancun?

Implies a center (roughly) SOUTHeast of Cancun and, given Dolly's general NW motion, likely to make landfall close to Cancun.

[jhamps10]

Playa del Carmen has a NNW wind, as of midnight central.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20d ... AXw01a.gif

[HouTXmetro]

Playa del Carmen has a NNW wind, as of midnight central.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20d ... AXw01a.gif

ok, where is that?