ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[mattpetre]

Looks like circulations are consolidating in the last few IR frames (just from general interpretation of cloud direction signatures. I'd say this will definately just clip the Yuc and then it's just a matter of following wxman57's advice for now and watching the convection and where it's headed until a well-defined center forms.

[RL3AO]

Playa del Carmen has a NNW wind, as of midnight central.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20d ... AXw01a.gif

ok, where is that?

Its pretty close to Cancun.

[Derek Ortt]

Cancun reporting NE 17 kt (20 mph) winds at 1 ET.

does this mean a center NE of Cancun?

No I am pretty sure it means that the center is west of there.[/quote

means the center is SE

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Cancun reporting NE 17 kt (20 mph) winds at 1 ET.

does this mean a center NE of Cancun?

Implies a center (roughly) SOUTHeast of Cancun and, given Dolly's general NW motion, likely to make landfall close to Cancun.

Ok I guess I am confused here! A NE wind means that its blowing from southwest to Northeast. Giving the counter clock wise rotation of the wind wouldn't a location have to be southeast of the center to get the NE winds on the back side of the circulation?

[Texas Snowman]

Last IR shot on this loop looks to me to have some sort of center of rotation very near Cancun.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

What I think seems apparent now is that a major traverse across the YP isn't going to happen, Dolly's internal disruption will be minimal, and with warm SST's and superb atmospheric conditions ahead of her, this is going to be the major news story of this next week (and who knows, maybe even beyond).

I think that tonight has put the southern and central Texas coastlines very much under the gun. Unless I miss my guess, Monday will be a very active day in the Lone Star State as preps begin in earnest.

[jhamps10]

Playa del Carmen has a NNW wind, as of midnight central.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20d ... AXw01a.gif

ok, where is that?

20.62N,87.07W

It was another option for a reporting station in the Cozumel forecast page on wunderground.

[Nederlander]

Ok I guess I am confused here! A NE wind means that its blowing from southwest to Northeast. Giving the counter clock wise rotation of the wind wouldn't a location have to be southeast of the center to get the NE winds on the back side of the circulation?

a NE wind means its blowing FROM the NE... just as a SW wind means its blowing FROM the SW

[paintplaye]

Ok so what does the general movement of the storm look like now? NW? WNW? West?

[mattpetre]

This could still just be an open wave, right? That was the CONsensus earlier and we have nothing yet to really refute that other than some Mexican radar (which could be MLC). So the center may be nowhere and the general storm motion is all we have... which is into the GOM or BOC as far as most can tell.

[americanrebel]

Ok I guess I am confused here! A NE wind means that its blowing from southwest to Northeast. Giving the counter clock wise rotation of the wind wouldn't a location have to be southeast of the center to get the NE winds on the back side of the circulation?

a NE wind means its blowing FROM the NE... just as a SW wind means its blowing FROM the SW

I think Chacor is correct about the wind is blowing from Southwest to Northeast, so that would mean the center is Just North of there.

But if Nederlander is right then the center would be South to Southeast of there.

[RL3AO]

NE wind means wind from the northeast.

[Nederlander]

Ok I guess I am confused here! A NE wind means that its blowing from southwest to Northeast. Giving the counter clock wise rotation of the wind wouldn't a location have to be southeast of the center to get the NE winds on the back side of the circulation?

a NE wind means its blowing FROM the NE... just as a SW wind means its blowing FROM the SW

I think Chacor is correct about the wind is blowing from Southwest to Northeast, so that would mean the center is Just North of there.

But if Nederlander is right then the center would be South to Southeast of there.

I had the quote wrong... it was Hurricanewatcher, not chacor

[mattpetre]

In weather terms NE winds means that the wind is coming from the NE (every time I've ever heard it at least) that's why they call lows off the New England coast North Easter's.

Although, at the risk of offending someone (which I seem to do with my opinions on occasion); I believe it would make more sense for a NE wind to mean that the wind was blowing towards the NE. Cause that would be the direction the weather vane would be pointing and would also denote the direction of the actual wind. Oh well, no chance of changing hundreds of years of history on a message board.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ok I guess I am confused here! A NE wind means that its blowing from southwest to Northeast. Giving the counter clock wise rotation of the wind wouldn't a location have to be southeast of the center to get the NE winds on the back side of the circulation?

a NE wind means its blowing FROM the NE... just as a SW wind means its blowing FROM the SW

I think Chacor is correct about the wind is blowing from Southwest to Northeast, so that would mean the center is Just North of there.

But if Nederlander is right then the center would be South to Southeast of there.

Nederlander is right...this is how they do it.

[Nederlander]

Ok so what does the general movement of the storm look like now? NW? WNW? West?

still looks NW to me

EDIT: I am expecting a bend within 4-6 hours

[paintplaye]

Ok so what does the general movement of the storm look like now? NW? WNW? West?

still looks NW to me

EDIT: I am expecting a bend within 4-6 hours

I thought so. It is just kind of hard with the center.


What do you mean bend?

[HouTXmetro]

I'm watching for weakening cloud tops to determine if this is an open wave

[americanrebel]

So that would mean the center is either South or Southeast of that station, correct????

[Nederlander]

I'm watching for weakening cloud tops to determine if this is an open wave

IMHO, we have an LLC going over Cancun now.... maybe a little to the east which means it would miss the yucatan, or split the difference

[HouTXmetro]

What time do the satellites get knocked out and for how long?