ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[RL3AO]

So that would mean the center is either South or Southeast of that station, correct????

NE wind should mean the center is SE of the station.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

What time do the satellites get knocked out and for how long?

I don't think that has started yet I think it starts in late August

[mattpetre]

Everyone is going to bed except for Dolly and a few ams... I hope no one is surprised in the morning, because I really don't want to figure out how I'm going to deal with work this week in the event of a threat. I have two projects that come to completion this week and a delay could mean dire consequences.

Honestly, am I the only one on here that's pretty scared this may effect Houston?

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, still looks NW to me too.

I suppose that this could be an open wave, but after watching these satellite loops and radar loops, it just doesn't seem very likely to me. I know data rules and there is none right now other than our speculation, but I can't believe my eyes are deceiving me that bad.

To me, it certainly looks like a storm ramping up on the NE tip of YP with a LLC relocating in that vicinity. Next recon will let us know for sure and perhaps I'll have egg all over my face.

Yep, I'm going to bed too - we'll see what Dolly is all about in the morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If the "LLC" is south of Cancun there is a high chance as the nhc stated that we are dealing with a tropical wave. This making landfall will not help its chances, so it will have to start all over again once in the gulf. Do I think it could become something, sure. But that is for Monday evening into tuesday to discuse. But for now I expect if no center develops to the north or west wind is reported with old center, that the nhc will down grade Dolly at 11am and maybe even 5am if they are sure of them selfs. Intil then we must watch the MLC to the north, if it can develop a new center then watch out gulf coast.

This is just my option.

[weatherguru18]

Yeah, still looks NW to me too.

I suppose that this [i]could be[i] an open wave, but after watching these satellite loops and radar loops, it just doesn't seem very likely to me. I know data rules and there is none right now other than our speculation, but I can't believe my eyes are deceiving me that bad.

To me, it certainly looks like a storm ramping up on the NE tip of YP with a LLC relocating in that vicinity. Next recon will let us know for sure and perhaps I'll have egg all over my face.

Yep, I'm going to bed too - we'll see what Dolly is all about in the morning.

No, just eat crow like the rest of us. It's a lot cleaner. Tastes like chicken.

[erik313]

Playa del Carmen is reporting winds from NW. The LLC is probably just offshore between Cancun and Playa del Carmen

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... del+carmen

[Aric Dunn]

Playa del Carmen is reporting winds from NW. The LLC is probably just offshore between Cancun and Playa del Carmen

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... del+carmen

yep so the center is making landfall far ne corner .. so only a short time over land
will be back over water by morning

hell at its speed before the sun comes up..
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Playa%20d ... a=N&tab=wl

[Nederlander]

This is just my unprofessional eye... I could be off a bit, but that looks like it to me... ?

[curtadams]

Playa del Carmen is on the Yucatan facing Cozumel Island. A NW wind of 3.1 mph (just reported) indicates the center is very close. Yucatan Map

[Brent]

Playa del Carmen is reporting winds from NW. The LLC is probably just offshore between Cancun and Playa del Carmen

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... del+carmen

yep so the center is making landfall far ne corner .. so only a short time over land
will be back over water by morning

hell at its speed before the sun comes up..
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Playa%20d ... a=N&tab=wl

I think so too.

[Cat5x]

Here is radar image out of Cancun.



Looks like the center is right off of the coast by Cancun. If this goes over land it will be for a couple hours 3 - 4 at most and that is a very flat land area. I can't believe people are talking about this being over land for 12+ hours and that it will knock it down. Ain't going to happen.




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94L died 3 days ago! It's not going to come back.

[artist]

Playa del Carmen live webcam

http://www.playa.info/webcam-hotel-cielo.html

[RL3AO]

This situation kinda reminds me of Katrina. A WNW movement over Florida that was going to take 18-24 hours but instead it moved WSW across the everglades in one night.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it is just east of cancun in near where you guys put it. Then I think it is very possible you guys could be right. Lets get this into the gulf so we can get a recon in.

[Cat5x]

This is just my unprofessional eye... I could be off a bit, but that looks like it to me... ?

That is exactly supported by the radar image i just posted, if anything just slightly north.

I don't think it will "make landfall" but if it does brush the coast its going to be for a very short period of time. It would have to turn due west (or have a south jog) to stay over land for more than 3 - 4 hours at this point.


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94L died 3 days ago! It's not going to come back.

[Aric Dunn]

If it is just east of cancun in near where you guys put it. Then I think it is very possible you guys could be right. Lets get this into the gulf so we can get a recon in.

actually most of the center is making its way on shore and will be inland( sort of) very soon

[weatherguru18]

The 2am Intermediate advisory will be issued shortly. I hate/love being in suspense. Will the cone shift even further north now? If the center is where you guys are pointing it out to be, and it certainly appears that way, then the central Texas coast needs to be on high alert.

[Nederlander]

interesting... glad I stayed up... I didnt know there was a 2 am advisory

[RL3AO]

The 2am Intermediate advisory will be issued shortly. I hate/love being in suspense. Will the cone shift even further north now? If the center is where you guys are pointing it out to be, and it certainly appears that way, then the central Texas coast needs to be on high alert.

They don't change the forecast on the intermediate advisories. If a drastic change is needed, then a full special advisory will be issued.