ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4901 Postby weatherguru18 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:53 am

RL3AO wrote:
weatherguru18 wrote:The 2am Intermediate advisory will be issued shortly. I hate/love being in suspense. Will the cone shift even further north now? If the center is where you guys are pointing it out to be, and it certainly appears that way, then the central Texas coast needs to be on high alert.


They don't change the forecast on the intermediate advisories. If a drastic change is needed, then a full special advisory will be issued.


Oh ok...I kind of figured that, but on another message board, one of the meteorologists at the local tv station in Houston indicated that models had shifted northward. That's what he said on the 10 PM news. I'm just curious as to what the cone will do at 5am.
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Chacor
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#4902 Postby Chacor » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:55 am

...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Landfall, apparently.
Last edited by Chacor on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4903 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:55 am

weatherguru18 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
weatherguru18 wrote:The 2am Intermediate advisory will be issued shortly. I hate/love being in suspense. Will the cone shift even further north now? If the center is where you guys are pointing it out to be, and it certainly appears that way, then the central Texas coast needs to be on high alert.


They don't change the forecast on the intermediate advisories. If a drastic change is needed, then a full special advisory will be issued.


Oh ok...I kind of figured that, but on another message board, one of the meteorologists at the local tv station in Houston indicated that models had shifted northward. That's what he said on the 10 PM news. I'm just curious as to what the cone will do at 5am.


The 0Z GFS is south of the previous run
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4904 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:56 am

Image

This system reminds me of Claudette a whole lot. I remember reading the post on storm2k as the recon found it no longer had a LLC back in 2003. Same as this one. I believe it then went around the north end of the Yucatan and made landfall in centeral Texas. Claudettes twin?
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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4905 Postby weatherguru18 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:56 am

I bet the winds are knocked down to 40mph at best. Wind observations along the coast don't support a tropical storm. Now with that said, they may be displaced from the center.
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#4906 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:56 am

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.
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Derek Ortt

#4907 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:01 am

of course there are no TS winds... they are primarily EAST of the center
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#4908 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:02 am

21.1 north is quite the jump north .. the models will shift by the 12z tomorrow.. and should from brownsville area north for landfall
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Re:

#4909 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:03 am

RL3AO wrote:AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Well they too believe the MLC took over...
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Re:

#4910 Postby paintplaye » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:04 am

Derek Ortt wrote:of course there are no TS winds... they are primarily EAST of the center


Hey what way do you think this storm is moving?
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Re:

#4911 Postby HarlequinBoy » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:09 am

Chacor wrote:...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Landfall, apparently.


This would be a new center then, no?
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Re: Re:

#4912 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:10 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:
Chacor wrote:...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Landfall, apparently.


This would be a new center then, no?


Yeah, way north of the 11pm position: (This is the 11pm track with the 2am updated position, looks a little off)

Image
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Re: Re:

#4913 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:10 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:
Chacor wrote:...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Landfall, apparently.


This would be a new center then, no?



Yes..you can see on this image the new center location compared to the older models not updated...

Image
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kevin

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4914 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:12 am

Wow. I hope those graphics are created by a computer and not an actual human being. It'd be better not to put an updated graphic up.
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Re: Re:

#4915 Postby paintplaye » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:13 am

Brent wrote:
HarlequinBoy wrote:
Chacor wrote:...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Landfall, apparently.


This would be a new center then, no?


Yeah, way north of the 11pm position: (This is the 11pm track with the 2am updated position, looks a little off)

Image


How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.
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kevin

#4916 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:13 am

See what I mean?
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#4917 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:14 am

Image
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Re: Re:

#4918 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:14 am

Brent wrote:
HarlequinBoy wrote:
Chacor wrote:...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.


Landfall, apparently.


This would be a new center then, no?


Yeah, way north of the 11pm position: (This is the 11pm track with the 2am updated position, looks a little off)

Image


seems like they just connect the new position to the old track...
Last edited by zaqxsw75050 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4919 Postby weatherguru18 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:15 am

Sorry off topic here, but did anybody notice the Medium Potential for development over Africa?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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#4920 Postby Chacor » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:15 am

The forecast track is not updated at intermediate advisories. The next forecast is at 5.
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