ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[AJC3]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

All that is is the 03Z track update with the 06Z position, they won't update the track until 09Z but you can bet it'll be shifted northward.

[stevetampa33614]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

[/quote][/quote]


LOL i was thinking the same thing. Im watching the weather channel earlier and the met stopped and looked really long at the cone and the actual position on Visible then went on.

We what the models say next init.

Remember charley in 2004. TAMPA needs to prepare.

They were still saying that as the eye was 20 miles from landfall in charlotte harbor.

Dont believe what they tell you, believe your own eyes.

[paintplaye]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

All that is is the 03Z track update with the 06Z position, they won't update the track until 09Z but you can bet it'll be shifted northward.

O ok. Thank you. I have been asking t his question a lot but what direction does the storm seem to be moving?

[americanrebel]

Unfortanetly for me, looks like my prediction of the cone being from Corpus Christi to Intracoastal City is coming through. The further North this system goes the further East the cone will move. Hopefully it starts its West jog soon, if not anyone on the Central Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on this one, since there is such good conditions ahead of her for her to have RI.

[Chacor]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

LOL i was thinking the same thing. Im watching the weather channel earlier and the met stopped and looked really long at the cone and the actual position on Visible then went on.

We what the models say next init.

Remember charley in 2004. TAMPA needs to prepare.

They were still saying that as the eye was 20 miles from landfall in charlotte harbor.

Dont believe what they tell you, believe your own eyes.

The forecast track is not updated at intermediate advisories. "Don't believe what they tell you" is very dangerous advice.

[kevin]

Tampa is to the east of the storm. I don't know why they should prepare.

[AJC3]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

All that is is the 03Z track update with the 06Z position, they won't update the track until 09Z but you can bet it'll be shifted northward.

O ok. Thank you. I have been asking t his question a lot but what direction does the storm seem to be moving?

To me it still looks like it's moving somewhere between true WNW (282.5) and NW (315).

[Praxus]

Sorry off topic here, but did anybody notice the Medium Potential for development over Africa?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Nice catch...here's the thread on that wave. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101956&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

LOL i was thinking the same thing. Im watching the weather channel earlier and the met stopped and looked really long at the cone and the actual position on Visible then went on.

We what the models say next init.

Remember charley in 2004. TAMPA needs to prepare.

They were still saying that as the eye was 20 miles from landfall in charlotte harbor.

Dont believe what they tell you, believe your own eyes.

Well my eyes tell me its moving northwest with nothing in sight to turn it to the east. So well its a good idea to be prepared its not something that people in Florida need to really worry about.

[americanrebel]

Yeah, way north of the 11pm position: (This is the 11pm track with the 2am updated position, looks a little off)

[/quote]

I think the reason this person put this up is to say that there would have to be a major deviation in its current path to follow the projected path from 11pm.

[stevetampa33614]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

LOL i was thinking the same thing. Im watching the weather channel earlier and the met stopped and looked really long at the cone and the actual position on Visible then went on.

We what the models say next init.

Remember charley in 2004. TAMPA needs to prepare.

They were still saying that as the eye was 20 miles from landfall in charlotte harbor.

Dont believe what they tell you, believe your own eyes.

The forecast track is not updated at intermediate advisories. "Don't believe what they tell you" is very dangerous advice.

relax. i know they need to update it. But certain situations call for not waiting for the NHC. People can think for themselves

[Jagno]

I believe the reference was to Charlie, not Dolly.

[Chacor]

I have never liked NHC's intermediate graphics. IMO they should only include the position of the estimated centre in the intermediate graphics, and not the forecast.

[kevin]

I believe the reference was to Charlie, not Dolly.

Yeah I missed that.

[weatherSnoop]

BIG difference...Tampa was the line, Pt. Charlotte was the outer edge of the cone. That was also hours from land fall. Our friends in Tx may be facing the 100 mile difference on Tuesday.

[americanrebel]

For any of the Pro-mets or some of the veterans of this board, are any of you guys in agreement with me that the further north Dolly goes, the further East the cone will move. i.e. right now the cone will probably be moved to at least just north of Brownsville to Sabine Pass if not, Chorpus Christi to Intracoastal City. Really would like some input on this, or am I just wish-casting?

[paintplaye]

How in the world will this happen? Man NOAA does not want to give up on their track.

All that is is the 03Z track update with the 06Z position, they won't update the track until 09Z but you can bet it'll be shifted northward.

O ok. Thank you. I have been asking t his question a lot but what direction does the storm seem to be moving?

To me it still looks like it's moving somewhere between true WNW (282.5) and NW (315).

Ok thank you. This is defiantly something to watch.

[stevetampa33614]

I believe the reference was to Charlie, not Dolly.

Yes, I was here in tampa when they gave the order to begin mandatory evacuations. I remember watching satelitte loops with my friend james and clearly seeing it not going anywhere near tampa. But the NHC was fixated on tampa until the very last. Almost unwilling to admit the track had changed.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looking at radar it looks like traveling over land is causing the circulation to tighten up. I say this based on the fact that the feeder band going to the south of the LLC is wrapping up close to the LLC instead of being far away from it.

[Jagno]

For any of the Pro-mets or some of the veterans of this board, are any of you guys in agreement with me that the further north Dolly goes, the further East the cone will move. i.e. right now the cone will probably be moved to at least just north of Brownsville to Sabine Pass if not, Chorpus Christi to Intracoastal City. Really would like some input on this, or am I just wish-casting?

Americanrebel; I know you are working across the state and rebuilding here. It's a valid concern for your local interests. Until Dolly hits the Gulf in a few hours I don't think anyone can say with near certainty what the next tract will encompass.