ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

For any of the Pro-mets or some of the veterans of this board, are any of you guys in agreement with me that the further north Dolly goes, the further East the cone will move. i.e. right now the cone will probably be moved to at least just north of Brownsville to Sabine Pass if not, Chorpus Christi to Intracoastal City. Really would like some input on this, or am I just wish-casting?

i have stated that multiple times already. but yeah what you said is normal the weakness in the ridge is still forecast so the wnw motion to the coast will still happen.. but shifted farther north.. Brownsville North.

[americanrebel]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

This is in my humble opinion, what follows is not supported by NHC, NOAA, Storm2K or anyone else.

So they are even saying in the intermidiate advisory that they don't expect her to move WNW anymore, just NW maybe at a little faster clip and beginning to intensify as soon as she moves away from the YP.

So they are starting to worry about how strong she is going to get and where she is going to go, it sounds like to me.

[Bolebuns]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

This is in my humble opinion, what follows is not supported by NHC, NOAA, Storm2K or anyone else.

So they are even saying in the intermidiate advisory that they don't expect her to move WNW anymore, just NW maybe at a little faster clip and beginning to intensify as soon as she moves away from the YP.

So they are starting to worry about how strong she is going to get and where she is going to go, it sounds like to me.

Wouldn't a faster forward speed mean less time to intensify?

[weatherguru18]

For any of the Pro-mets or some of the veterans of this board, are any of you guys in agreement with me that the further north Dolly goes, the further East the cone will move. i.e. right now the cone will probably be moved to at least just north of Brownsville to Sabine Pass if not, Chorpus Christi to Intracoastal City. Really would like some input on this, or am I just wish-casting?

Well the ridge will only allow it to go so far east regaurdless of where the center is. IMO, the fast it moves the more likely it is to stay south. It won't give the ridge time to weaken much.

[Duddy]

These next 48 hours will fly. I'm in Houston at the Galleria Sheraton til Friday. Maybe the good thing about this is I get to go home to my family early.

Gotta look on the bright side of life.

[Mecklenburg]

it could probably bomb in the GOM... GOM is very notorious you know...

[weatherSnoop]

The center should clear the tip shortly...I expect the southern convection will catch up shortly there after.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting how convection continues to form in the Yucatan channel while the "center" of Dolly scoots along the northern Yucatan.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

it could probably bomb in the GOM... GOM is very notorious you know...

Very good chance it will. Theres really nothing keeping it from doing so. However Rapid strengthening is not something that they can forecast yet.

[weatherguru18]

yeah they can bomb out in the Gulf. Opal comes to mind along with Audrey, Brett, Humberto, Katrina, Rita, and I'm sure a thousand others. God, with a shift to the north like that, I just wonder what a city like Houston/Galveston will prepare. To evaucate a place like that, they would had to have started today (Sunday)

[Duddy]

Hurricane Dolly by 2PM Advisory?

[americanrebel]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

This is in my humble opinion, what follows is not supported by NHC, NOAA, Storm2K or anyone else.

So they are even saying in the intermidiate advisory that they don't expect her to move WNW anymore, just NW maybe at a little faster clip and beginning to intensify as soon as she moves away from the YP.

So they are starting to worry about how strong she is going to get and where she is going to go, it sounds like to me.

Wouldn't a faster forward speed mean less time to intensify?

As was earlier that the slower this system moves the easier it is to feed the cooler waters that are deeper down, but if it stays at a good pace it would not be able to feed off the cooler waters that are deeper down, but just the very warm Upper level waters where the very warm SSTs are.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Depends on how quickly she gets into the GoM and starts to strengthen again. Its possible she could be a Hurricane by then but who knows.

[americanrebel]

Hurricane Dolly by 2PM Advisory?

Very possible if not even earlier say the 11 am Advisory.

[weatherguru18]

Hurricane Dolly by 2PM Advisory?

Very possible if not even earlier say the 11 am Advisory.

eek...11am? I think that's pushing it. I doubt they will do anything until recon gets in there. They didn't even find an LLC with the last mission. But, I've eaten crow before, so I may have to do it again.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hurricane Dolly by 2PM Advisory?

Very possible if not even earlier say the 11 am Advisory.

eek...11am? I think that's pushing it. I doubt they will do anything until recon gets in there. They didn't even find an LLC with the last mission. But, I've eaten crow before, so I may have to do it again.

With a statement like that you really cant loose. You didn't say it wouldn't be a Hurricane by 11 but you didn't say it would be as well. So either way you wouldn't have to eat crow!

[americanrebel]

Why do you think I worded it the way I did? Just depends on how fast she decides to leave the YP on how fast she will wind up and become a hurricane and how strong of a hurricane she will come is anyones guess.

[Smurfwicked]

Wouldn't a faster forward speed mean less time to intensify?

I could be very wrong about this but:

I'll let a pro met confirm or deny this as I can't find the post. But I believe it was a pro met that said something along the lines of, in the GOM if the storm is moving fast it has better chances of RI due to the fact a slow mover sits on water long pulling up more colder water.

[brunota2003]

She has to form and hold onto a low level circulation first...then after it forms and the convection forms into a CDO, all bets are off.

[Duddy]

Wouldn't a faster forward speed mean less time to intensify?

I could be very wrong about this but:

I'll let a pro met confirm or deny this as I can't find the post. But I believe it was a pro met that said something along the lines of, in the GOM if the storm is moving fast it has better chances of RI due to the fact a slow mover sits on water long pulling up more colder water.

I can confirm reading that before as well on here.