ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Chacor]

She has to form and hold onto a low level circulation first...

A key point often overlooked. With a very weak and poorly-defined centre right now, it is still impossible to say exactly what will happen in the next few hours. It depends where the LLC winds up - if it forms over land I assume the storm's intensification could be disrupted. A hurricane by 11 is pushing it a little imo, especially without an obvious LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

well in a sense yeah very slow speed like 5mph would cause upwelling. but its forecast to be 12mph so no upwelling. and as for less time to intensify , again if you look at it from the simple view faster speed would mean it would reach last sooner but Rapid intensification does not take long at all and can happne in 6 to 12 hours..

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

She has to form and hold onto a low level circulation first...then after it forms and the convection forms into a CDO, all bets are off.

She has developed a Low Level Circulation thats even becoming more pronounced as she travels over land. She Should be all set to strengthen once back over water.

[Chacor]

She has to form and hold onto a low level circulation first...then after it forms and the convection forms into a CDO, all bets are off.

She has developed a Low Level Circulation

Not according to the NHC an hour ago.

[brunota2003]

Have surface obs proven that there is a LLC? Radar does not count, unless it is literally almost directly ontop of the radar site itself.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

She has to form and hold onto a low level circulation first...then after it forms and the convection forms into a CDO, all bets are off.

She has developed a Low Level Circulation

Not according to the NHC an hour ago.

The 2am update was issued more then an hour ago. At that time the put the center where aric and a bunch of the rest of us was saying a center was forming. Since the 2am update came out the center has gotten more defined and the circulation there where the NHC put the center can not be missed based on radar.

Edit: Haven't looked at surface obs just been studying the radar

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think this will be a hurricane intil Tuesday afternoon at the earliest.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Can someone post a radar link for TS Dolly?

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Third % chance that Tropical Storm Dolly will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 80%
Category 2 Hurricane: 70%
Category 3 hurricane: 50%
Category 4 and 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

[Chacor]

I don't think this will be a hurricane intil Tuesday afternoon at the earliest.

In my entirely unofficial opinion, I would tend to agree. I just don't think that it will strengthen that quickly without a strong LLC.

[americanrebel]

I don't think this will be a hurricane intil Tuesday afternoon at the earliest.

I would like to know why you think that, as the NHC even expects this to intensify prety quickly and she already has 50 MPH winds, just need another 25 MPH for it to become a Hurricane? I hope you are right Matt, but I just don't see it.

[brunota2003]

I am sure if it does not have one, it is really close to having one again...I just like to have solid evidence that the LLC is there, and that it will stick around, before thinking about RI or for that fact, any significant strengthening period.

I like what someone posted earlier about this system:

It is like a tornado that is skipping along it's path, just on a much larger scale.

[americanrebel]

The following post is NOT an official forecast or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Third % chance that Tropical Storm Dolly will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 80%
Category 2 Hurricane: 70%
Category 3 hurricane: 50%
Category 4 and 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

This is just my thoughts also
TD: 100%
TS: 100%
Hurricane: 97.5%
Cat 2: 85.5 %
Cat 3: 74.5 %
Cat 4: 55 %
Cat 5: 40 %

Just looking at how well the GoM is in shape for RI.

[HurricaneHunter914]

SST's will be 30C degrees for the remainder of her track. Combined with low shear, rapid intensification is very possible after it emerges into the gulf. Me and my family will be watching this system carefully.

[Chacor]

I think the NHC must be kicking themselves that the 06z scheduled recon fix somehow either a) did not happen or b) did not report data. Or perhaps they called that flight off due to being over land?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I think the NHC must be kicking themselves that the 06z scheduled recon fix somehow either a) did not happen or b) did not report data. Or perhaps they called that flight off due to being over land?

They prob. Called it off because of it being over land. When storms are over land they can not fly into them because the friction caused by the interaction with land causes more turbulence.

[americanrebel]

When is the next official advisory 6am (eastern time) correct?

I think they are going to be sending a plane out every 3 hours very shortly for Dolly so they are not caught with their pants down as this system is most likely to explode in the GoM.

[Chacor]

Yeah, but when they were scheduled to leave (0315, or about 15 mins after the 11pm package) the centre fix was still well offland. Unless they left and turned back.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Next advisory is at 5am AST which because of daylight savings time is also 5am EST

[Chacor]

When is the next official advisory 6am (eastern time) correct?

I think they are going to be sending a plane out every 3 hours very shortly for Dolly so they are not caught with their pants down as this system is most likely to explode in the GoM.

5 am. And the most they will go is one fix every six hours. What they might do is get each plane to do two fixes, so that each plane stays out for around 12 hours, and by the time one plane starts to leave the other would be well on its way.