Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[windycity]

Dang, this wave looks amazing. I pray we don't get another Flloyd scare outta this one, and that the ridge is strong.The conus really doesnt need this.

[HURAKAN]

Wow! TS Christine formed as a Depression at 14W over land.

I'm sure that's just a data/typing screw-up...there's no way the NHC would have any way of measuring the profile of a blob over central Niger, and certainly not in 1973.

[caribepr]

We're all watching...(front row seat response!)

[RL3AO]

Just got home. What a TWO.

[HURAKAN]

[blp]

Looks like the low might be close to this location. Look at the wind shift below.
Local Observations

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

Tambacounda, Senegal
Time (GMT): Sea Level Pressure: Wind Dir: Wind Speed: Gust Speed: Precip: Events: Conditions:
12:00 AM 1013 hPa ENE 18.4 mph / 29.6 km/h / - -
3:00 AM 1010 hPa WSW 6.9 mph / 11.1 km/h / 3.1 m/s - N/A Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER
IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[americanrebel]

So is it possible my prediction of 11 am (central time) will be spot on when this will be named Eduardo?

[RL3AO]

Won't be 11am as in 9 hours from now. Maybe 33 hours from now.

[Mecklenburg]

what do models say about this thing now?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm really starting to doubt development of this low because of how far north it is coming off. 15 north is to far north period.

I also highly doubt that the nhc will upgrade this as it is coming off.

[Mecklenburg]

I'm really starting to doubt development of this low because of how far north it is coming off. 15 north is to far north period.

I also highly doubt that the nhc will upgrade this as it is coming off.

it could probably descend to a lower latitude just like Ivan

[Cyclenall]

To be honest, I can't see this coming off very far north. It's going to dip to the south-west a bit like the models have been showing.

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First % chance that this African Wave will become a:

Tropical Depression: 85%
Tropical Storm: 80%
Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 2, 3, 4, and 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

[Meso]

The EURO is also hinting at another LOW moving off after this one, as can been seen on the GFS and CMC

[Mecklenburg]

really? now, that's shocking

[KWT]

No reason to doub tit Matt given eventhe TWO mentions this could become a Tropical cyclone once it hits the water. We wil lprobably get an invest out of in the next 12-18hrs as soon as it hits the water.

[Mecklenburg]

within how many more hours will this blob emerge into the ocean?

[Meso]

This image of the wave is less than an hour old

Large Wave View

[abajan]

This image of the wave is less than an hour old

Large Wave View

The circulation is clearly visible in that shot. Interesting days ahead indeed.

[Mecklenburg]

hello, can somebody give me a link to the GFDL model website? thnx...