ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wx247]

Everyone must be in bed. This is as quiet as this thread has been in days.

New advisory, including forecast, comes out shortly. I am anxious to see what it entails.

[KWT]

Yep wx247 its going to be very interesting to see what they do with the track, they are surely going to have to adjust it at least a little further north

[Mecklenburg]

dolly sure don't look good on the satellite pics

[americanrebel]

This is the quietest it has been I don't know how long. Looking forward to the new advisory and forecast map with the new cone.

[Chacor]

...DOLLY OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN...ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF...

Still forecasting a 75 kt peak.

[americanrebel]

i can't believe this thread has more posts than hurricane bertha's

Be careful don't want to get banned for talking about number of post without mentioning something about the storm in the thread.

So when do we expect the new advisory to be out with the new maps?

[Chacor]

MLC exists, LLC might not.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON
THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.

[KWT]

Yep still forecasted to reach 75kts as you say Chacor. IMO that may be a little under what may happen but then again the NHC may as well be a little low then go too high and totally bust, still plenty of time to watch to see this system. Lets see what happens in the next 12hrs so we can get a good image of whats going on.

Chacor, yeah its hard to tell if theres a LLC, it may well be the case that thereisn't right now but once it goes over water I'd have thought one will form again if ther eisn't.

[wx247]

Forecast track really did not change much in the long run... just some adjustments in the short term. All right, the day of advisories has begun.

[Mecklenburg]

NHC say it doubts about the existence of a surface circulation center... but i guess once it emerges into the GOM, it will be visible again...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NHC say it doubts about the existence of a surface circulation center... but i guess once it emerges into the GOM, it will be visible again...

Remember it is not a cyclone with out a LLC. It should be able to develop one from the MLC, but that is 70/30. If it doe's not develop one by 5pm it should be demoted to wave.

[KWT]

The chances are it will develop a new LLC though Matt, theres no reason why it won't under warm waters and decreasing shear levels.

[johngaltfla]

That is one fascinating discussion this morning. I hope they get recon in there ASAP as the folks in TX really need a heads up and this storm is heading into the warm bathtub where we have seen some amazing things in the last two years. Good luck to you folks in Northern Mexico and South Texas.

[Chacor]

Recon has just taken off.

EDIT: Rather, it's on the runway.

[Meso]

[wx247]

Looks like it will be a long day of this.

[KWT]

MLC is really clear to see on radar, I think thats where the LLC will probably try and form. Recon will be interesting I suspect it will indeed have a hard time closing off a LLC though the center may still be overland by that time.

[Smurfwicked]

This is just my personal opinion but:

I think it needs to hurry up and get to where it needs to be to give a more accurate landfall probability, cause I can't see this hitting remotely close to Tex-Mex border. I just don't want to see wherever this is going to have a lack of time to smoothly prepare or conduct mandatory evacuations if needed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

MLC is really clear to see on radar, I think thats where the LLC will probably try and form. Recon will be interesting I suspect it will indeed have a hard time closing off a LLC though the center may still be overland by that time.

I agree, I believe that once into the Gulf it should finally form a stable LLC. But it has been beaten into my head over the years that to be a cyclone it needs to have a 360 degree closed wind field, that is what is needed for every cyclone. In if the system doe's not quite have 100% one of those then the pro's get angry in start argueing with me. So I'm just saying what I've learned in the past.

[johngaltfla]

When the LLC is found over water again, the models will start to determine just what we are dealing with. Right now, it is everyone's best guess as the discussion pretty much said.