ATL: Dolly Model Runs
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
Same ol 76....Brownsville, as it has been the past 3-4 days.
[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025212.shtml?5day#contents[/img]
[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025212.shtml?5day#contents[/img]
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- chadtm80
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
Even tho the GFS intialized the center a littler further north, the landfall is further south...
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
Wx_Warrior wrote:Even tho the GFS intialized the center a littler further north, the landfall is further south...
again the GFS is intialized at the wrong lat. Wv loop tells the tale. The LLC is forming under the deeper convection going through the channel....until a WELL DEFINED center is established, and Dolly stops jackin around, the models dont have the best handle on her yet...Tomorrows runs should be better, more true and correct....
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
chadtm80 wrote:
Latest sat images show Dolly is barely scraping the tip of the Yucatan,maybe miss it altogether. The intialization of her going across the Yuc is wrong. This will likely be a Texas coast event
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
Lol...well never really makes landfall yet..stalls here just off the coast and strengthens her..
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
Hehehe....Who knows? Friday, it was let's wait till Saturday run...Then Saturday, is, well, Sunday will be tell all....More than likely, Wednesday will be out best bet!
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
canegrl04 wrote:chadtm80 wrote:
Latest sat images show Dolly is barely scraping the tip of the Yucatan,maybe miss it altogether. The intialization of her going across the Yuc is wrong. This will likely be a Texas coast event
Canegrl - there is no verification on that yet, only speculation. Until recon can confirm that let's not make such statements as a fact.
This can make a large impact on the storm if that is the case, thus the reason we need to wait for verification of such.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
Wx_Warrior wrote:Hehehe....Who knows? Friday, it was let's wait till Saturday run...Then Saturday, is, well, Sunday will be tell all....More than likely, Wednesday will be out best bet!
you do have a point....
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- americanrebel
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
There are no big changes in the ridge mean flow that WXman57 posted yesterday. His parting words last night were that if the LLC stayed weak it might follow the convection and reform north of the Yucatan sometime this morning.
With dolly slowing down at the end of the track I was expecting a little hook to the right up the Texas coast?
NHC apparantly does not think Texans need to take in their lawn furniture and sweep the porch yet.
With dolly slowing down at the end of the track I was expecting a little hook to the right up the Texas coast?
NHC apparantly does not think Texans need to take in their lawn furniture and sweep the porch yet.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
ROCK wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:18Z GFDL - Cat 2, Brownsville.
your still to far south Ed.....intialized that is.....what color is your thong?
May just give myself a wedgie with my boxers.
But I still say no Cat 4/5 next 10 days w/i 100 miles of HOU
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
06z GFDL is a bit more north,now landfall near Corpus Christi:
Code: Select all
WHXX04 KWBC 211130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY 04L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 21
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 21.0 86.9 310./13.0
6 21.7 88.2 300./13.9
12 22.8 89.6 305./17.2
18 23.4 91.1 294./14.7
24 23.9 92.2 291./11.7
30 24.4 93.2 302./ 9.9
36 25.1 93.6 323./ 7.7
42 25.7 94.4 309./ 9.8
48 26.0 94.7 318./ 4.3
54 26.5 95.1 323./ 5.6
60 27.0 95.2 342./ 4.9
66 27.2 95.7 303./ 4.6
72 27.3 96.3 272./ 6.1
78 27.4 97.0 278./ 6.1
84 27.4 98.0 271./ 8.3
90 27.3 99.1 268./ 9.7
96 27.5 100.4 277./12.3
102 27.5 102.1 270./15.1
108 27.8 104.0 278./16.3
114 28.3 105.6 289./15.5
120 29.0 107.6 289./19.0
126 29.9 109.6 295./19.1
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- Portastorm
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
That landfall is a bit further south than Corpus ... and it looks an awful lot like Bret's area of landfall in 1999. As has been written here already, that is a very sparsely populated area of Texas with mostly ranchland.
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Re:
I've been waiting on this, thank you. And is it just me or do most of them models show a lot of "wobbles" in the track? Is that normal? I can't remember seeing ones that looked so much like the lines was drawn on with a squiggly pen.
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Re: Re:
It shows models coming toward Houston and Beaumont/Pt. Arthur area. Is this correct. Because all I have been hearing is Mexico/S. Tex. Have these readjusted since Dolly made her trip over the Yuc.
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