ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Sanibel]

Whatever the case, the obvious question now is what Dolly does in the GOM area ahead of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sanibel... what you're saying has zero basis in fact in this case

Dolly is not intensifying because its core was disrupted by the Yucatan.

Yeah and its already beginning to intensify again, as we now have a closed llc again. As soon as this moves away from the Yucatan, this thing will really begin to strengthen.

[funster]

Sanibel... what you're saying has zero basis in fact in this case

Dolly is not intensifying because its core was disrupted by the Yucatan.

Yeah and its already beginning to intensify again, as we now have a closed llc again. As soon as this moves away from the Yucatan, this thing will really begin to strengthen.

The west side is getting bigger quickly. I wonder what Dolly will look by this evening.

[Chacor]

FZNT23 KNHC 211445
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22.1N 89.5W 1005 MB AT 11 AM EDT IS MOVING NW AT 16 KT.

Northwest 16 kt. I assume this motion won't continue?

[TexWx]

I don't believe it's moving NW now.

[Chacor]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

[Sanibel]

Edit

[dwg71]

Vortex message shows it to be south of NHC track, not a great deal but some.

At 22.1 already it doesn't have to travel too far north to hit Texas. We will have to see how strong this ridge remains.

Texas is near 26 I believe. From 5AM to 11AM coordinates changed .8N and 2.1W. At that pace it will barely make 25. A texas hit is possible, but a mexico hit seems more likely, imo.

[HouTXmetro]

Anyone have a good WV satellite link to the entire CONUS? I'm trying to see what High pressure is doing.

[gatorcane]

Latest advisory on movement:

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

[cheezyWXguy]

FZNT23 KNHC 211445
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22.1N 89.5W 1005 MB AT 11 AM EDT IS MOVING NW AT 16 KT.

Northwest 16 kt. I assume this motion won't continue?

Itll probably slow down some. And btw I noticed that it really isnt moving as westward as we all thought. I had to look really closely at visible to realize it was just the gap in convection that was moving west, due to being poorly organized. I was able to see the center move wnw through the whole loop and it looks like the southern inflow may already be coming back.

[HouTXmetro]

I do think we will see a more Northward motion before all is said and done. The Convection is also trying to wrap around the SW side. Good for development IMO.

[Comanche]

NHC landfall was nudged a tad right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This thing is completely moving west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

It does look like it is moving almost due West, and the recon VDM center looks very close to apparent satellite center.

After being wrong calling for 94L to be classfied 3 times in 4 days, I have been on a small streak of correct guesses, and I'm not backing down on a hit South of the Rio Grande as no more than a lower end Cat 2.


Disclaimer: That is unofficial, I am not a professional, this is not endorsed by Storm2K, and always follow the advice and warnings of local authorities, the National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.

[Sanibel]

The wrapping convection may be making the illusion of a more south turn. So NHC track for now.

[Frank2]

Yes, but, it's important to note that Dolly is beginning to move underneath a high now located over TX, so, that should continue the rapid W movement...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Someone better print this because Im going to agree with Frank..LOL

And I also think Mexico is more likely ATM..

Far out (this should be mounted in the S2K Hall of Fame)!

Frank

P.S. Let's hope it's no more than needed rain for wherever it makes landfall...

[jabman98]

I do think we will see a more Northward motion before all is said and done. The Convection is also trying to wrap around the SW side. Good for development IMO.

It looks like the 11 a.m. nudged the cone a little northward. Am I seeing things?

[cycloneye]

A tad north track.

[rockyman]

I do think we will see a more Northward motion before all is said and done. The Convection is also trying to wrap around the SW side. Good for development IMO.

It looks like the 11 a.m. nudged the cone a little northward. Am I seeing things?

From the 11am disco:

Most of the guidance has shifted a little
northward over the western Gulf...and so has the official
forecast...which remains down the middle of the guidance envelope.
There are very reliable models on both sides of the official
track...so it is important not to focus on the exact location of
landfall implied by the official track.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200804.disc.html

[americanrebel]

I can tell you this Chevron has decided to evacuate its platform 80 miles south of Galveston, so they must know something we don't, because if it would be going in around Brownsville they would not be evacuating that platform.