ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[vaffie]

The visible loop makes it look like it's hooking to the right somewhat... Judge for yourself. If you click on the Trop Forecast Points box, you can already see that it's well to the right of the forecasted track already. Bears watching.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dolly is already indirectly affecting the sensible weather in Houston. The normal SE onshore flow is absent, there is a complete absence of the normal puffy cumulus, some of which are usually close to the point of starting to shower by now, clear blue skies, and NWS HGX update says 101ºF (38.3º C) daily record high may be in peril today.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Center of lowest pressure was found at 22.7N 90.20W and the pressure is at 1005.6mb

[gatorcane]

She does appear to be heading just north of the next forecast point. Ridge hasn't even weakened yet either.

[artist]

Playa del Carmen live- looks squally
http://www.playa.info/webcam-hotel-cielo.html

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the current data, my thinking is a Cat 3 or 4 near Corpus Christi, TX since I see rapid intensification in the last 24 hours before landfall. The hurricane wind field I think will not be huge (~50 miles) but the tropical storm wind field will be quite large (~200 miles at peak).

Based on my thoughts, I would suggest the following watches/warnings if I was the NHC:

Hurricane Watch - Rio San Fernando, Mexico to Freeport, Texas
Tropical Storm Watch - La Pesca to Rio San Fernando, Mexico AND Freeport, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas

[green eyed girl]

When is the ridge forecast to weaken?

[A1A]

She does appear to be heading just north of the next forecast point. Ridge hasn't even weakened yet either.

What's the best link to look at the ridge?

[Category 5]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the current data, my thinking is a Cat 3 or 4 near Corpus Christi, TX since I see rapid intensification in the last 24 hours before landfall. The hurricane wind field I think will not be huge (~50 miles) but the tropical storm wind field will be quite large (~200 miles at peak).

Based on my thoughts, I would suggest the following watches/warnings if I was the NHC:

Hurricane Watch - Rio San Fernando, Mexico to Freeport, Texas
Tropical Storm Watch - La Pesca to Rio San Fernando, Mexico AND Freeport, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas

If it gets itself together today then rapid intensification becomes a very real concern.

[Tireman4]

Dolly is already indirectly affecting the sensible weather in Houston. The normal SE onshore flow is absent, there is a complete absence of the normal puffy cumulus, some of which are usually close to the point of starting to shower by now, clear blue skies, and NWS HGX update says 101ºF (38.3º C) daily record high may be in peril today.

Well it is a DRY heat.

[Aric Dunn]

When is the ridge forecast to weaken?

it is in the process now.. but it will be a slow weakening and shifting east over the next couple day.
by tomorrow you should a noticeably weaker ridge

[MiamiensisWx]

When is the ridge forecast to weaken?

The upper level ridging to the NE of Dolly will begin to gradually erode later today as the longwave trough over the Great Lakes deepens. As this trend occurs, the upper level anticyclone at 300 mb will amplify over the W GOM and Southwest CONUS. With the broad anticyclone in place, conditions will be ideal (as seen now) for further intensification of Dolly, while the height falls to the NE may allow a brief NW movement as Dolly slows and approaches landfall. Later, a turn back toward the WNW around the time of landfall may be plausible as the upper level ridging over the Southwest CONUS expands east at H5.

The process and evolution of the synoptic environment is slowly commencing now.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Possible eye wall forming:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

[Category 5]

Plenty of fuel.

['CaneFreak]

Possible eye wall forming:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

That's not an eyewall.

[WmE]

Possible eye wall forming:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

That's not an eyewall.

No, but a sign of it becoming better organized.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Possible eye wall forming:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

That's not an eyewall.

No right now its not but its the starting stages of an eye wall developing. You need banding before the eye wall will develop.

[Aric Dunn]

we are only hours Away from some significant strengthening.... it is show some clear signs of organization with a tight center forming and convection beginning to fire right around that small well defined center. all it is going to take is a initial burst of deep convection ( which looks to be starting) over the center and i imagine by the time this recon mission is done we will see some stronger winds.

want to add that when i say significant i dont mean a strong hurricane or anything that will likely come later..

this is a key observation in determining the structure and present organization of dolly

from the VDM "DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER"

the inner core is beginning to take shape!! things are about to get interesting..

[oyster_reef]

Possible eye wall forming:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

That's not an eyewall.

No, but a sign of it becoming better organized.

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[dwg71]

looks shoddy to me, no banding or bursting convection near center.