ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cheezyWXguy]

Dolly continues to improve in organization. The LLC now looks strong and solid.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201345.GIF

Check out the south part of the Bay of Campeche (rotation and wind if you can), the TUTT there is really have a negative development effect on Dolly. I doubt Dolly will get going while that's still there, and probably why its center has been more northward.

Thats a thing of the past and shear is virtually zero. The only thing from now on that could hinder development is its structure which is rapidly improving.

[Aric Dunn]

Dolly continues to improve in organization. The LLC now looks strong and solid.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201345.GIF

Check out the south part of the Bay of Campeche (rotation and wind if you can), the TUTT there is really have a negative development effect on Dolly. I doubt Dolly will get going while that's still there, and probably why its center has been more northward.

that upper low is weak and the system is under a large anti cyclone that upper low is not have any negative effects on dolly
she has great outflow in all quads

[Aric Dunn]

['CaneFreak]

Im not sure how dolly amounts to much of anything moving at that speed adn with (still) negative influence from that TUTT

we almost forgot about the TUTT , i think dolly will be an underachiever, but she does have potential. (same thing my guidance counselor said)

No we didn't. The TUTT is not negatively affecting this cyclone. Sorry but you are mistaken. The TUTT is well to the east of this cyclone over the central Carribean. The TUTT is actually helping to vent this cyclone.

[Brent]

The south side still looks very poor convection wise, but it's still close to the Yucatan. I'm not that impressed right now though.

[HouTXmetro]

I guess at this forward Speed the Ridge is large and in charge/

[RL3AO]

The south side still looks very poor convection wise, but it's still close to the Yucatan. I'm not that impressed right now though. Not to say I won't be later...

Yes it is, but the structure is improving very very quickly.

[O Town]

I can't even pin point the TUTT anymore on Water Vapor.

[gatorcane]

I'm seeing a cyclone that has a much better spin but due to the sprawling nature of the convection is having a hard time undergoing any kind of rapid intensification at the moment. Dry air is intruding on the SW side of the cyclone which is also helping inhibit any kind of rapid organization.

Movement is on par with NHC guidance and I see no evidence of a turn to the NW yet. If it can just go a bit more W (left) it will be inland over Mexico in less than 24 hours, probably later on tonight.

[Tireman4]

I dont think Houston is going to much in the way of large amounts of rain or wind. We are watering like crazy here and there is not any end in sight.[/quote]


Like Dr Neil Frank used to say, Never relax until the system is inland ( or something like that)...LOL

[TexWx]

was that a jump to the north in the last few frames?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

maybe just a wobble.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The south side still looks very poor convection wise, but it's still close to the Yucatan. I'm not that impressed right now though.

I don't think Its going to have time to even get to Cane status..but what do i know..

[jasons2k]

The south side still looks very poor convection wise, but it's still close to the Yucatan. I'm not that impressed right now though.

The south side was blocked due to land interaction. As she pulls away expect the south side to fill-in.

Considering this was an open wave 12 hours ago I'm pretty impressed by the sat presentation.

[O Town]

was that a jump to the north in the last few frames?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

maybe just a wobble.

I don't notice that, seems to be pretty much right on with the NHC forecast points.

[gatorcane]

Look at this loop:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I see even more of a wobble West at the end...extrapolate the movement and its comfortably south of the Texas-Mexico border. Things can change though but that is what I see as far as movement at this time.

[tallywx]

The speed of this thing has shades of 2003 Hurricane Erika, which had perfect outflow in all quads. but moved so quickly across a very warm Gulf that it was only able to achieve minimal hurricane status before landfall at the TX/MX border.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm seeing a cyclone that has a much better spin but due to the sprawling nature of the convection is having a hard time undergoing any kind of rapid intensification at the moment. Dry air is intruding on the SW side of the cyclone which is also helping inhibit any kind of rapid organization.

Movement is on par with NHC guidance and I see no evidence of a turn to the NW yet. If it can just go a bit more W (left) it will be inland over Mexico in less than 24 hours, probably later on tonight.

actually thats just a illusion on the sprawling convection actually its normal for system to do that. all you are seeing is the outflow expanding , but at the surface the circulation is becoming much tighter and there is clears signs of banding starting up. It has not been this organized yet. also it is slight north of the NHC track. and the there is no dry air in the vicinity well at least none of sufficient amount to do anything. she only going through structural changes and what we are seeing normal.

[cpdaman]

The south side still looks very poor convection wise, but it's still close to the Yucatan. I'm not that impressed right now though.

the biggest ball of convection to the NE keeps getting further away as well, i'm waiting to see when the convection along the SW side wraps to the east across the south, because there is no inflow from the south (except for that stream displaced far to the east) looks like someone sliced her right half and seperated it, i don't think she is getting her act together till she SLOWSS down.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Look at this loop:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I see even more of a wobble West at the end...extrapolate the movement and its comfortably south of the Texas-Mexico border. Things can change though but that is what I see as far as movement at this time.

LOL it was easy to see this this morning when you told Houston to look out!

[sphelps8681]

I thought Dolly was suppose to slow down. Is this not the case anymore?