ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Stormcenter]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.

Except for the part where the storm is all ready north of the track.

Yes that is correct....Dolly is currently north of the NHC's projected path.

[RL3AO]

1st VDM: 22 42' 90 11'
2nd VDM: 22 46' 90 43'
Difference: 0 4'N 0 32'W
Heading: 277

[Hyperstorm]

Don't be fooled (the ones that say the storm is maturing in strength) by just looking at just an expansion of the cloud canopy. The system is far from better organized when compared to 6 hours ago. Yes, the Recon may find a lower pressure (after all, the storm has been over warm waters for more than 6 hours), but don't expect a sudden increase in strength. There is CLEARLY some low to mid level easterly shear. Not only that, the interaction with land has disrupted the inner core and that's why the system is increasing in size. This takes time to heal. As long as that upper low is still in the Bay of Campeche and doesn't dissipate, this will continue. I do see, however, that as the storm moves further away into warmer waters and during the nocturnal maxima, we should see a strong resurgeance of convection over the core. However, if that easterly shear continues, we may not be looking at much more than a strong tropical storm or very minimal hurricane.

Right now, the status quo continues...

[Sanibel]

Dolly's trend was bad organization and weakness throughout its existence.

As I was saying earlier, I've seen more than one storm choke after transiting Yucatan on a Mexican GOM track. Still July.

[Aric Dunn]

recon just found 58kt Flight level winds...

she starting to strengthen ...

[dwg71]

1st VDM: 22 42' 90 11'
2nd VDM: 22 46' 90 43'
Difference: 0 4'N 0 32'W
Heading: 277

beat me too it, laymans terms 22.7N 90.2W last reading current 22.8N and 90.7W. still booking right along.

['CaneFreak]

You know its very very funny that SOOOO many people mention the dry air and the NHC mentioned NOTHING of the sort at 11 am when it was even closer to the Yucatan Peninsula than it is now. THERE IS NO DRY AIR. Period. Its just undergoing structural changes.

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT DOLLY HAS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY CONFIRMED THE
EXISTENCE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND FOUND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT. THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SO THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ENTIRE OVER-WATER FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. IN ABOUT 18-24
HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29
CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA
WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE.
AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR A TRUE
INNER CORE TO DEVELOP. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFDL
SOLUTION...IN CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL
ARE UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS ONLY
RESULTS FROM THE 72-HOUR POINT BEING INLAND...AND A STRENGTHENING
TREND IS FORECAST UP TO THE TIME OF FINAL LANDFALL.

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THERE ARE VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
LANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

[hurricanefloyd5]

brownsville could get gusts to Hurricane Force and maybe they could get Hurricane force winds with higher gusts!!!!!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

Yankeegirl...Media will jump on any storm wagon...Not just for good reasons, but for ratings reasons.

Just keep checking the models thread.

[Cat5x]

It seems like a long shot at this point that Dolly will slow down before making landfall. At this speed it will be on shore in little over 24 hours.

IF it did slow down, is there any chance it can stall off the coast and if it did, any chance it can resume a new heading after stall ?

__________________________________________________

94L died 3 days ago! It's not going to come back.

[Skyhawk]

Position from lastest VDM

22 deg 46 min N
090 deg 43 min W

Looks to be on track. I imagine some people are placing the center in the open area north of 23N.

[dwg71]

to hit next nhc mark it must travel .2N and .9W, seems to be right on schedule.

[sealbach]

So, as i am sitting here at the college waiting to be seen, i am looking at the news websites and came across this from http://www.kprc.com, which is houstons nbc news channel... hows this for some hype?

"The forecast track for the storm has moved north and could threaten the Houston area."

Now,the met. that forecast this is Khambrel Marshall, who isnt even a met!! He was an anchor that used to be on the AM news and now he does weather... just thought i would pass this along and lighten things up around here... lol...

Actually, Khambrel Marshall got his met degree and that is why he's doing weather now.

[paintplaye]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.

Except for the part where the storm is all ready north of the track.

Sure maybe its tracking about 10-20 NM to the right of the FORECAST points but she is well within the cone (i.e. track) so NHC is nailing it. Even so a diff of 10 NM is not much at all.

I expect a more north hit then expected. I expect a Corpus hit. I just do not see a WNW track the whole way. I know the ridge is strong, but i expect with the intensity that it gains, to help a little nudge to the north. I don't expect a lot just a little and with the layout of Texas, any little nudge to the north can be huge. This is just my opinion though.

[Yankeegirl]

really? i didnt know that?! ok, well my bad!! i have always seen him as just an anchor, i really had no clue!! but yea, weather hype on the local news... go figure!

[Sanibel]

We could still see a slow down and hurricane, but it has to be admitted that Dolly's moving kind of fast and doesn't look like it will hit the high predictions.

[sealbach]

agreed, yankee

[Tireman4]

Khambrel Marshall is the newest member of the KPRC Local 2 Severe Weather Team. Khambrel delivers the weekend morning forecasts to help you plan your day.

A self-proclaimed "weather geek" since high school, Khambrel has formally studied through Mississippi State University and is close to adding a meteorology certification to his list of broadcast accomplishments.

Living through and reporting on Hurricane Andrew solidified his thirst for meteorological knowledge, specifically tropical weather phenomena.


http://www.click2houston.com/newsteam/2 ... etail.html

[Cyclenall]

Stop confusing dry air with the intensification of Dolly. I've seen this look before, and it isn't dry air. People said that about Humberto when it exploding into a hurricane, it's just the type that looks like that. Even if there is some, it's going to be a complete non-issue here.

[Tireman4]

From Dan Meador at Khou.com ( Who I respect a ton)

From Chris Carr of Baron Services:

Storm Discussion: The center of Tropical Storm Dolly is very difficult to find looking at satellite and buoy data. It appears that Dolly maybe trying to reform another center of circulation well to the north of the old circulation, closer to the core of the convection. Satellite is showing nice convection near the Yucatan Channel and if a surface low is indeed developing in this area, it is on the northern end of all guidance. One interesting note is that the BAMS model verified very well with Dolly on the 0z run and actually had the center of circulation further north than all other models. Dolly has an impressive outflow aloft and current water vapor suggests that it maybe developing a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough). Dolly should begin to take a more westward track today as it enters the Gulf of Mexico thanks in part to an area of High Pressure over the Southeastern United States. All models are breaking this ridge down by mid-week as a trough digs over the Eastern US. The track of Dolly will be very dependent on its ability to strengthen and the forecasted digging trough. While a more westward track should continue through mid-week, a possible turn to the north is possible prior to landfall. With a developing TUTT and the deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico ahead, strengthening looks very likely for Dolly over the course of the next few days. NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the open waters of the Central and South Western Gulf of Mexico. All people along the Western Gulf Coast should continue monitor Tropical Storm Dolly over the next week.