ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wx247]

This appears to be old.

[jacindc]

From Dan Meador at Khou.com ( Who I respect a ton)
From Chris Carr of Baron Services:

This sounds kind of old, like maybe from early this morning?

[Steve]

>>...my guess is that they'll mention the dry air...

No doubt that they'll be struggling with taking it to a Cat 1 as well. Cheers Frank2. I always have a good time reading your posts even if sometimes I get the image of Baghdad Bob (Fallujah Frank?) in my head.
---------------------------
My amateur opinion is that the storm is far better organized than it has been to this point. It's still a little diffuse looking and is in the developmental stages, but it is getting its act together slowly but surely (again, IMHO). It's probably a good thing that it has been moving as fast as it has been rather than crawling along giving it additional time to strengthen. I'm mostly looking to see if/when the "slowdown" occurs and for how long. The time factor difference can often be the difference between a TS and an IH. Time will tell.

/not an expert

Steve

[Skyhawk]

Position fro previous VDM

22 deg 42 min N
090 deg 11 min W

So the storm moved 4 min north and 32 min west in 1 hour and 50 minutes. Distance traveled was 29.8 nm resulting in a speed of 16.3 knots. Course was about 8 deg north of due west.

[freport_texas21]

Check out the 48 hr NAM 12Z

http://www.weather.unisys.com/nam/48h/nam_pres_48h.html

[Tireman4]

From Dan Meador at Khou.com ( Who I respect a ton)
From Chris Carr of Baron Services:

This sounds kind of old, like maybe from early this morning?

This is when it was posted: (Dont shoot me here!!! lol)

Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject:

[jabman98]

So, as i am sitting here at the college waiting to be seen, i am looking at the news websites and came across this from http://www.kprc.com, which is houstons nbc news channel... hows this for some hype?

"The forecast track for the storm has moved north and could threaten the Houston area."

Now,the met. that forecast this is Khambrel Marshall, who isnt even a met!! He was an anchor that used to be on the AM news and now he does weather... just thought i would pass this along and lighten things up around here... lol...

Actually, Khambrel Marshall got his met degree and that is why he's doing weather now.

The KPRC website may be a bit out of date, but according to them he doesn't yet have his certification. They don't mention a degree:

A self-proclaimed "weather geek" since high school, Khambrel has formally studied through Mississippi State University and is close to adding a meteorology certification to his list of broadcast accomplishments.

Mississippi State has a distance learning program in Broadcast Meteorology, which isn't quite the same thing as getting an actual degree in Meteorology.

That post from Dan Meador about the center reforming does sound old. I hope so anyway.

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Look at that core now!!!! This thing is ready to explode. Give it about 6-12 hours. Look at those -60C cloud tops on the NW side. Wow.

[galvestontx13]

Check out the 48 hr NAM 12Z

http://www.weather.unisys.com/nam/48h/nam_pres_48h.html

That what I am thinking aswell.

not a met fosho

[Aric Dunn]

well off to class! be back to stare at recon as sat loops for the next many hours
..

[dwg71]

Position fro previous VDM

22 deg 42 min N
090 deg 11 min W

So the storm moved 4 min north and 32 min west in 1 hour and 50 minutes. Distance traveled was 29.8 nm resulting in a speed of 16.3 knots. Course was about 8 deg north of due west.

nearly 19mph. 24 hours would be 450+ miles...

[artist]

Position fro previous VDM

22 deg 42 min N
090 deg 11 min W

So the storm moved 4 min north and 32 min west in 1 hour and 50 minutes. Distance traveled was 29.8 nm resulting in a speed of 16.3 knots. Course was about 8 deg north of due west.

which is just above what she was traveling at the 11am advisory -

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

so it seems to me they are right on in their forecast as to how soon she will get where she is going. She is actually not forecast to slow down much until tomorrow. For those saying she will get where she is going much sooner, remember they are talking about from the center of the storm (I think that is correct) That is why they do have the cone to show when ts winds etc. will arrive ahead of the storm. And according to the above, at least at 11 they are predicting the slow down to be in the next couple of days, not now. She will continue as is for the time being, unles something else happens we don't know about!
Just trying to bring out points that were mentioned for those questioning her speed at this time.

[KWT]

Whilst the convection isn't amazing right now what shouk,d be noted is there is some light shear present and it only came off the Yucatan a little while ago. Structure is steadily improving and we only need a deep burst of convection to get upto 65-70mph I reckon.

[jhamps10]

Check out the 48 hr NAM 12Z

http://www.weather.unisys.com/nam/48h/nam_pres_48h.html

interesting, but it's the nam for crying out loud, when has it verified in the tropics?

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Look at that core now!!!! This thing is ready to explode. Give it about 6-12 hours. Look at those -60C cloud tops on the NW side. Wow.

All I see is moderate convection with a few spots of red. But I do believe that she'll go under some faster intensification tonight and into the morning hrs Tuesday.

[RL3AO]

[stevetampa33614]

Recon has found 65 mph winds

latest observation (pressure dropped a bit)


Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 19:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°46'N 90°43'W (22.77N 90.72W)
B. Center Fix Location: 143 miles (230 km) to the NNW (330°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the ESE (107°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 179° at 31kts (From the S at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 365m (1,198ft)

[KWT]

I think with this structure its all primed for quick strengthening if it can gain deep convection. I think that probably is about 6-12hrs away yet but once it gets that I suspect we will see pretty quick strengthening occur.

[brunota2003]

When did Recon find 65 mph winds?

[stevetampa33614]

When did Recon find 65 mph winds?

honestly i was just about to edit my post. Someone posted it on a thread in somethingawful. still looking..