ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HarlequinBoy]

Just be patient. Just because it isn't bombing out right now doesn't mean it should be written off or played down.

[jasons2k]

By the way, regarding the dry air/no dry air argument...

I posed the question to Derek. Here was his reply:

not dry air.. its core is just disrupted after impacting the Yucatan

that may take another 12 hours to fully recover

also... the intensification is not expected to fully begin until tomorrow

Thank you, thank you, thank you! Now I can stop

[tpr1967]

Dolly has been spitting out an outflow boundrie on the south side convection 1-2 hours ago.
That can't be good for organization in the short term.

[mattpetre]

Watch the tone change now that this next set of convection is about to start popping just west of and over the center.

[WmE]

Let us remember that the NHC itself is only forecasting a 10 kt increase in strength in the next 8 hours or so. (From the 11 a.m. advisory). We shouldn't expect rapid intensification in the middle of July, like we saw with Rita, Katrina, etc...

So the fact that it is the middle of July is a limiting factor for rapid intensification? I think not. Look at Dennis in 2005. It was mid-July. Went from a cat 2 to a 4 in several hours.

Look at Bertha! From Cat 1 to Cat 3 in a few hours. With much less heat content. I don't say that Bertha will strengthen tha much but RI is definitly possible in July.

['CaneFreak]

Dolly has been spitting out an outflow boundrie on the south side convection 1-2 hours ago.
That can't be good for organization in the short term.

Link to that?

[KWT]

As derek said the inner core was left pretty messy and it indeed may not have had much of an inner core about 12hrs ago so until this can develop a bette rinner core we won't see much strengthening...however look at the good banding features, its a healthy and large storm other then that and one that IMo has the shape that just needs a big lump of convection to get going.

[TexWx]

Man NHC was dead on track.

[tpr1967]

see any visible loop a few hours long.

[Normandy]

Also, for those who keep saying the center is moving due west and what not, it really isnt. It moving at a good WNW headiing.

[cycloneye]

Anyone can get the pro mets analysis of Dolly at the thread in Tropical Analysis forum.You wont see the wobble wars there.

[tpr1967]

Sorry guys i am not to good with posting links just yet.

['CaneFreak]

see any visible loop a few hours long.

the visible a few hours ago didn't show any outflow boundaries....sorry...maybe you are just confused as to what an outflow boundary really is....google it and let me know...

[KWT]

If I had to guess the current heading it'd be close to 285, maybe 290, its close to a WNW track though and not westerly like some seem to believe.

Canrfreak, I see outflow boundary coming out of the southern side in the last couple of hours but convection has held so far.

[GeneratorPower]

What in the world is this thing I see on IR? It takes up the whole Gulf of Mexico and looks like a giant mushroom. What is going on here. It doesn't look like anything I've every seen.

[tpr1967]

Should be interesting to see what the obs will be like with in the next 24 hours at this bouy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[dwg71]

Also, for those who keep saying the center is moving due west and what not, it really isnt. It moving at a good WNW headiing.

WNW is pretty accurate 290 or so. Latest Recon trip showed a 42 minute north increase from first to last VDM and a 93 Minute W movement.

[wx247]

What in the world is this thing I see on IR? It takes up the whole Gulf of Mexico and looks like a giant mushroom. What is going on here. It doesn't look like anything I've every seen.

It is just a strong tropical wave. JUST KIDDING!

I am anxiously awaiting the discussion at 4.

[tpr1967]

I live in florida. I know what an outflow boundrie is.

[HURAKAN]