ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Normandy]

Ya Ed, it would need a to be running at a good 35-40 mph, almost faster than the winds it has right now, to hit by tomorrow morning (What I am trying to get at is that that won't happen). Meanwhile, looks like Dolly is starting a convective burst near her center.

Here I will make a list of things that are not happening with this system (that any pro met and the NHC discos will verify)...

1. No dry air is impacting the system.
2. The system is not moving west.
3. The system is not making landfall tomorrow.
4. The system is not a tropical wave.
5. The system is not weakening.

Here is also what is not happening
1. Great moisture pocket.
2. They system is not moving northwest.
3. The system will not be over water in 60 hours.
4. The system is not a hurricane.
5. The system is not strengthening.

My attempt at humor, NHC has good handle on it. I think it will be 10AM further south than brownsville, maybe 75-100 miles. Just my guess.

For your call of 75-100 miles south of BRO indicates you think the NHC does not have a good handle on it

[Derek Ortt]

The met here in Dallas said that dry air is affecting the storm and that it is heading west/NW but more west. I am confused on what this thing is gonna do. I have family in the Galveston area and they are wondering what to do. Anyone have any insight? Anyone have some of the wave heights in the Gulf at this time?

ask in tropical analysis so you you will get a reliable answer, and one that won't be buried

[lrak]

Hurricane Allen was not fun.

[brunota2003]

For your call of 75-100 miles south of BRO indicates you think the NHC does not have a good handle on it

Only if you follow the line.

[KWT]

Normandy, yep for the track to be that far out at this stage wouldn't be good at all, even on a WNW track this would probably come very close to the border. NHC has had a good handle on this system so far no reason to doubt them though the strength forecast could be off on either side because we just don't know.

[Comanche]

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This is my very, very unprofessional opinion/observation... but this storm is done. It is moving way too fast and will encounter land again by tomorrow morning.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble that thought it would get cane status before it hit the states.

One thing you need to know before putting yourself out there is that NOTHING in tropical systems remains static. So you cannot look at the current movement of any system and just extrapolate it out and call it a forecast, you'll be wrong 99% of the time. Just a friendly observation.

[Normandy]

For your call of 75-100 miles south of BRO indicates you think the NHC does not have a good handle on it

Only if you follow the line.

Well, 100 miles south of BRO is coming close to being out of the cone. Anyways I was just poking fun at him.

[Sjones]

The met here in Dallas said that dry air is affecting the storm and that it is heading west/NW but more west. I am confused on what this thing is gonna do. I have family in the Galveston area and they are wondering what to do. Anyone have any insight? Anyone have some of the wave heights in the Gulf at this time?

At this point Galveston is in the clear. Give it 24 hours or so to be sure. I would not make any plans other than your normal "its hurricane season" plan.

I'm hoping for rain here in houston, not likely to see much though.

Can't say it's in the clear just yet, wild things have been known to happen and throw everyone's mind for a loop!

[HouTXmetro]

Our in house model brings it in north of Corpus by just a little bit. Interesting...not saying I believe it.

Have your inhouse models shifted North or South or have they been calling for a strike in that general area?

[brunota2003]

For your call of 75-100 miles south of BRO indicates you think the NHC does not have a good handle on it

Only if you follow the line.

Well, 100 miles south of BRO is coming close to being out of the cone. Anyways I was just poking fun at him.

I was just poking fun at you too...haha, in my opinion, it is very good if it is the cone...now once we get 24 hours out, I'd expect it to be very close to "the line", still too many variables right now, unfortunately.

[Wx_Warrior]

IMHO, I think Corpus and South will take the eye landfall on Wednesday. Anything north of CC would be a stretch.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Strong convection is now starting to develop over the center. Here we go if it continues!

[paintplaye]

IMHO, I think Corpus and South will take the eye landfall on Wednesday. Anything north of CC would be a stretch.

I believe the same.

[dwg71]

Ya Ed, it would need a to be running at a good 35-40 mph, almost faster than the winds it has right now, to hit by tomorrow morning (What I am trying to get at is that that won't happen). Meanwhile, looks like Dolly is starting a convective burst near her center.

Here I will make a list of things that are not happening with this system (that any pro met and the NHC discos will verify)...

1. No dry air is impacting the system.
2. The system is not moving west.
3. The system is not making landfall tomorrow.
4. The system is not a tropical wave.
5. The system is not weakening.

Here is also what is not happening
1. Great moisture pocket.
2. They system is not moving northwest.
3. The system will not be over water in 60 hours.
4. The system is not a hurricane.
5. The system is not strengthening.

My attempt at humor, NHC has good handle on it. I think it will be 10AM further south than brownsville, maybe 75-100 miles. Just my guess.

For your call of 75-100 miles south of BRO indicates you think the NHC does not have a good handle on it

I cant be a hypocrit and change my prediction. I'd rather be wrong than change my prediction.

[KWT]

Well I think Galveston and probably a lot of SE parts of Texas are in the clear though obviously its a different matter for the SW portion, indeed we have a hurricane watch now in effect...

[lrak]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

Dang, feeder bands already?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A very well defined LLC has developed on Dolly based on obs. It shows that it has a large area that it covers with convection trying to develop over it. If convection develops at the trend it is right now; then we could have a centeral core by late tonight into tomarrow morning. The outflow is starting to develop to, so we need to watch closely. If the models are right in this doe's slow down, then it could have 48-56 hours over water.

It is a wait in see. "94L" has been something that is hard to forecast. But this seems straight farward if it gains the centeral core.

[Texas Snowman]

I noticed on this page of sphagetti model runs that three - including the GFDL - are now clustered in the Baffin Bay area.

http://weather.chron.com/auto/chron/tro ... model.html

[lrak]

IMHO, I think Corpus and South will take the eye landfall on Wednesday. Anything north of CC would be a stretch.

Just by the looks of everything, I'd say "Right On"

[BobHarlem]

Dolly really hasn't done too much today, very gradual stuff. Recon is still flying in patterns more in common with Invests than Tropical Cyclones. Convection is better on 3 sides, but the Southwest into the center still is a bit weaker than it should be. If it shakes that remnant of the TUTT (you can still see a little rotation in the BOC from it) off then all bets are off.