ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ROCK]

not surprising DWG71, you do this every year since 2004....

[Sjones]

I think if it slows down a pretty good bit, the forecast track will be changing

[Stormcenter]

If you make a prediction within the NHC's cone you can't go wrong and that's pretty much
what many are doing on this thread give or take a few hundred miles. Anyway the NHC insists Dolly will slow down big time and that is when things will get very very interesting.

[sunny]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Dang, feeder bands already?

Just pulled up GRL3 - you can see the bands approaching.....

[HarlequinBoy]

[Texas Snowman]

One thing I've learned today is from the Trop Analysis page where one of the mets said that a good rule of thumb is that it takes a TC about 18 hours to recover from landfall.

Will be interesting to see if Dolly starts to get her act together now that we're closing in on that time frame.

[MiamiensisWx]

Mid level dry air is clearly an issue, in my view. Note the arc clouds emanating from the southern semicircle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

WV seems to confirm it on the S side as well.

[lrak]

very strange looking TS.

[KWT]

Yep feeder bands already getting pretty north, its got a huge circulation though the higher winds aren't quite so expansive.

Deeper convection slowly flaring up close to the center, this should continue to occur tonight as the inner core gets better developed, I think once it gets good deep convection then expect a quick jump in wind strength.

[dwg71]

not surprising DWG71, you do this every year since 2004....

I'm probably an opposite-wish/caster (sounds like seinfeld episode), there are many that jump on a Houston storm when it sprinkles in east Africa. At least, I can admit my bias. But. I do think this will come in south of the border like the Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

better watch out its going to start its intensification phase ...

[Texas Snowman]

I have to admit that Dolly is far from the storm that I thought she would be at this point today.

But if the slowing does take place, given the warm SST's, the conducive upper air environment, and the forecast of a weakening ridge, I still think it is possible that my earlier unofficial call for a landfall on the middle Tx coast between Corpus and Port O'Connor as a Cat 2, maybe a low end Cat 3 could happen.

But that's if the slowing takes place because the window for all of that to take place isn't very big.

[MiamiensisWx]

Mid level dry air is clearly an issue, in my view. Note the arc clouds emanating from the southern semicircle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

WV seems to confirm it on the S side as well.

New convection may experience problems as mid level dry air is subsequently transported to the boundary layer. I believe we're observing some gradual intensification, but some issues remain with the mid level dry air.

Regardless, I still expect hurricane intensity in its life span.

[cheezyWXguy]

very strange looking TS.

Indeed it is, but it looks infinitely better than this morning, and this is the best it has looked all its life. I hope that tiny clear dot where the center is isnt an indication of a pinhole eye...

[paintplaye]

I am not worried about a hit for Houston. What i am afraid of is the rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see A LOT of rain.

[HarlequinBoy]

24 hours ago the NHC predicted Dolly at 45 knots at the 5 PM advisory...and they were correct.

[Aric Dunn]

Mid level dry air is clearly an issue, in my view. Note the arc clouds emanating from the southern semicircle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

WV seems to confirm it on the S side as well.

New convection may experience problems as mid level dry air is subsequently transported to the boundary layer. I believe we're observing some gradual intensification, but some issues remain with the mid level dry air.

Regardless, I still expect hurricane intensity in its life span.

people and the dry air... geez

[Texas Snowman]

CheezyWXguy,

I've been looking at the vis and IR satellite loops and while it's hard to believe that's what it is given its slow developement, it does look like perhaps an eye-like feature is trying to occur there. Last frame on the IR shot shows a deep convective burst right on the southern edge of that "eye", so I guess we'll see in time if that starts to expand and wrap.

Interesting storm whatever happens.

[Brent]

Looks better but still very broad and bizarre looking.

I do think it's trying to strengthen though and probably will some overnight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

3 0.970 Ace

This is from Wikipedia...

Should be crossing 1 ace next Advisory.