ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[paintplaye]

It looks like it is starting to take a more NW turn. IMO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It has a very large area of moisture/convection,
so Tropical Storm Dolly is a very large storm.
It is moving over very warm waters and should
intensify to a hurricane of at least 80 mph
over those waters.

[KWT]

Aric, there is some slight dry air present, esp im the mid-level though I don't think that a great problem for this system esp once it develops its inner core totally, I think its getting pretty close to finishing this process now and once done we could well see some much quicker strengthening.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is difficult and potentially incendiary to ignore it.

[HouTXmetro]

It looks like it is starting to take a more NW turn. IMO

Don't know about that yet, it's clearly WNW to me.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im with you on this one..Ortt disagrees...I think it pretty evident this is not going to be a major TX prob wind wise..

[cycloneye]

No mention at NHC discussion of dry air.

[txwatcher91]

Wouldn't it be something if this went from having no eye to t-storm all around it and an eye tonight? I know, that won't happen, but IMO a Cat 2 or 3 is very possible as long as it slows down.

[MiamiensisWx]

Im with you on this one..Ortt disagrees...I think it pretty evident this is not going to be a major TX prob wind wise..

An intensifying Cat 1 presents fairly significant wind issues, especially along the coast.

[funster]

very strange looking TS.

She's a very freaky girl...

[PauleinHouston]

better watch out its going to start its intensification phase ...

Aric,
I agree...she's cleared the influence of Yucatan. Interestting that the ULL has pulled down to bottom of the BOC...wrap around moisture spinning off and feeding up towards Dolly. I think convection starting to fill in quickly now s/se quadrant and she'll be off and running. Wouldn't be surprised to see a semblance of an eye by tomorrow morning either.

All IMHO...

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow: No mention at NHC discussion of dry air.

Yes thier comments duplicated my thoughts on Dolly earlier this afternoon..All they way to this not even msaking Cane status..

[RL3AO]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, there is some slight dry air present, esp im the mid-level though I don't think that a great problem for this system esp once it develops its inner core totally, I think its getting pretty close to finishing this process now and once done we could well see some much quicker strengthening.

sorry but the amount of (possible) dry air to the south of has clearly not penetrated the moisture envelope and dont believe that the convection less area to the east has anything to do with dry air.. it is simply a by product of the way the center and convection reformed last night and this morning. it just so happened that center reformed on the south side of an east to west elongated area of convection and when the convection began to wrap around the west side it has giving it the appearance of dry air. now im saying there is none at all .. but its such a small amount its not having any major effect on the convection at all...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropical Storm Dolly's Moisture Envelope is 600 miles wide (Texas to Cuba)
East to West.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im with you on this one..Ortt disagrees...I think it pretty evident this is not going to be a major TX prob wind wise..

An intensifying Cat 1 presents fairly significant wind issues, especially along the coast.

Big differences between Foliage and Strucural is what im looking at here

[lrak]

As an average, what would you guys and gals say about Dolly?

Normal
Below
Above

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: No mention at NHC discussion of dry air.

very true .. i have never known them to not mention something that would affect their forecast.

[MiamiensisWx]

As an average, what would you guys and gals say about Dolly?

Normal
Below
Above

None of the above

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, worth noting those clouds you mention are from an outflow boundary from about 3hrs ago with new conve ction developing on it as it heads southwards, not sure thats a sign of mid level dry air really though i suppose it may be there a little bit. As you say though min cat-1 strengthening is an issue, look at Katrina's first landfall in Florida for an example of that.

By the way Aric, i agree I said its probably only a slight issue, a large burst will probably mix out whats left, the inner core issue is the main reason this has been slow to get going.