ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HarlequinBoy]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

Haha, I've been waiting to see if that little blob on IR grows.

[lrak]

As an average, what would you guys and gals say about Dolly?

Normal
Below
Above

None of the above

whoops not clear about that, the size of Dolly?

[Comanche]

I have come to the conclusion that many on this board would make great trial attorneys.

"i can clearly see...."
"i strongly disagree with....."
"don't look at this, watch this....."
etc etc

[Aric Dunn]

MiamiensisWx, worth noting those clouds you mention are from an outflow boundary from about 3hrs ago with new conve ction developing on it as it heads southwards, not sure thats a sign of mid level dry air really though i suppose it may be there a little bit. As you say though min cat-1 strengthening is an issue, look at Katrina's first landfall in Florida for an example of that.

By the way Aric, i agree I said its probably only a slight issue, a large burst will probably mix out whats left, the inner core issue is the main reason this has been slow to get going.

right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..

[lrak]

I remember Bret carved channels through the outer island, and Allen did the same but he covered the entire Gulf. Allen being TX and Bret...umm Rhode Island for comparison.

[cheezyWXguy]

MiamiensisWx, worth noting those clouds you mention are from an outflow boundary from about 3hrs ago with new conve ction developing on it as it heads southwards, not sure thats a sign of mid level dry air really though i suppose it may be there a little bit. As you say though min cat-1 strengthening is an issue, look at Katrina's first landfall in Florida for an example of that.

By the way Aric, i agree I said its probably only a slight issue, a large burst will probably mix out whats left, the inner core issue is the main reason this has been slow to get going.

right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..

and these problems have practically resolved themselves now...as said before...all it needs is a large convection burst over the center and this thing will go soaring.

[Aric Dunn]

MiamiensisWx, worth noting those clouds you mention are from an outflow boundary from about 3hrs ago with new conve ction developing on it as it heads southwards, not sure thats a sign of mid level dry air really though i suppose it may be there a little bit. As you say though min cat-1 strengthening is an issue, look at Katrina's first landfall in Florida for an example of that.

By the way Aric, i agree I said its probably only a slight issue, a large burst will probably mix out whats left, the inner core issue is the main reason this has been slow to get going.

right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..

and these problems have practically resolved themselves now...as said before...all it needs is a large convection burst over the center and this thing will go soaring.

right .. i saw it coming many hours ago .. but its taking a little longer than i thought because of its fast pace. but its starting to happen as we speak ..

[Aric Dunn]

I would not be surprised at all if by morning we have a hurricane..

[RL3AO]

A small burst just south of the center is trying to get going.

Visible: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/1kmsrvis_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL042008&starting_image=2008AL04_1KMSRVIS_200807212015.GIF&ending_image=2008AL04_1KMSRVIS_200807212140.GIF

IR: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL042008&starting_image=2008AL04_4KMIRIMG_200807212002.GIF&ending_image=2008AL04_4KMIRIMG_200807212132.GIF

[galvestontx13]

[KWT]

I agree Aric I never said the dry air was the reason for it I was just saying there was a little bit of mid level dry air there.

Anyway we need to watch to see if the latest convective burst continues to develop over the next few hours, if it does then I agree this is about to strengthen pretty readily.

[Ivanhater]

She will look like a whole different storm tomorrow..She will lose that outer band currently stretching into the NW Caribbean and wrap up (which is currently happening) already getting a blow up over the center..

[tolakram]

5am forecast:

INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.3N 87.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 22.6N 89.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.6N 92.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 24.4N 94.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.0N 95.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED


5pm forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 23.1N 91.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 24.9N 94.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 25.8N 96.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 26.4N 97.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED


In my opinion nothing abnormal is happening here, it's just taking a tad longer to get organized.

[txwatcher91]

Will likelly be a cane by tomorrow at noon IMO. Why? Outlflow is excellent, forward speed SHOULD decrease, higher TCHP ahead, better upper level conditions, more time for the core to organize, and the DMAX tomorrow morning will contribute to this strengthening pretty readily.

[gboudx]

Latest update from jeff. If you disagree with him on his "dry air" comment, then PM him and ask him to join the boards to discuss.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches remain the same.



Hurricane warnings will likely be issued tonight at 1000pm for parts of the hurricane watch area.



Current:



Dolly moving very quickly over the southern Gulf of Mexico with so far no sign of slowing down. Extrapolation of track using hurrevac brings the center inland in a little over 24 hours if it does not slow down. The large outer band of convection looks to be weakening allowing deeper convection to fire around the center. It has taken a little time for the inner core to develop so far likely due to dry air entrainment from Mexico and the fact the center is so broad. With that said recon. did see some inner wall banding in their last pass…so the intensity may be getting ready to go into an upswing.



Track:



No change in guidance or NHC track…only change is to speed up landfall by 12 hours due to fast forward motion with the center crossing the coast Wed afternoon and onset of TS force winds at 300am Wed. across the S TX coast. Dolly appears to be under the grasp of the TUTT over the extreme southern Bay of Campeche and that appears to be driving the fast forward motion. Guidance insist that Dolly will greatly slow to nearing 50% of its speed on Tuesday…but so far this is not happening. Based on visible images it does appear the Dolly may be breaking away from the TUTT. The ridge over TX is still forecast to weaken and allow a slight bend in the track to the right. Currently, NHC shows the center crossing the coast just north of KBRO Wed PM.



Intensity:



I am tempted to back down a little on the intensity based on the fast forward motion and the lack of a well defined inner core. Still going with a high end cat 1 at landfall and a cat 2 is still possible. However there is no skill in forecasting rapid intensity changes and we have seen time and time again rapid development in the Gulf…so rapid deepening remains possible, especially if the forward speed slows.



Preparation:



Persons in the hurricane watch area should be preparing for the landfall of a cat 1-2 hurricane.



State has activated the fuel plan…Fuel demand has greatly increased today after TXDOT has changed the DMS signage along the freeways. Fuel is being surged to coastal areas to keep supplies at 75% capacity.



No evacuations are being required at this time. Some evacuations may be needed on Tuesday for S Padre Island. There is no time for any mass evacuations, and at this time none are needed.



Impacts:



Rainfall: widespread 2-4” area wide with isolated amounts of 6-8” over Matagorda Bay.

Tides: 1-4’ above normal at the Wed AM high tide in Chambers and Galveston Co. Tides will run 3-5 feet above normal at high tide Wed AM around Matagorda Bay. Tides of this magnitude are nearing flooding thresholds.

Winds: TS force winds may impact the Matagorda Bay complex…mainly in squalls

Seas: Will build 7-8 feet on the beaches on Wednesday with 16-18 feet offshore. Building seas will result in wave run-up along the beaches with flooding up to the base of the dunes and may approach the top of some bulkheads.

[galvestontx13]

yo gabba gabba

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I also would not be suprized if it became a hurricane some time tomarrow.

[KWT]

Quite possibly Ivanhater, you can really the banding is pretty impressive already with Dolly so if we do get a bnig convective burst then I'd expect pretty quick strengthening from where it is at the present moment. We are just waiting for that process to conitnue but ther eis an upward swing in convection again in the last few hours and you'd expect that to continue.

[JessRomero]

yo gabba gabba

THIS IS TOO FUNNY I am happy to see a sense of humor among all this mania!

[RL3AO]

We are one burst of convection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

See what I meant? Ten minutes and the attitude of this forum is already changing.