H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

Aric Dunn · #401 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:28 pm

whoa 58kts

192400 2333N 09136W 9710 00335 0095 +184 +184 041031 033 058 027 00

vortex just said max Flt level winds of 43 kts
well they just found 58kts lol

#402 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:30 pm

Thats SMFR.

1st VDM: 22 42' 90 11'
2nd VDM: 22 46' 90 43'
Difference: 0 4'N 0 32'W
Heading: 277

Aric Dunn · #403 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:32 pm

right.. oopps..

#404 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:51 pm

I'd go with 50 kt as a blend of the SFMR and FL winds.

#405 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:52 pm

They are ascending. When does the next flight take off? The POTD is not working right.

dwg71 · #406 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:52 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'd go with 50 kt as a blend of the SFMR and FL winds.

leave it at 45Kts, that is probably generous at this point.

KWT · #407 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:59 pm

Hard to say surface estimates are higher then that dwg71, they probably will leave it at 45kts but I think we are close to seeing higher winds. I think the main thing is its still moving about 16kts as forecasted.

dwg71 · #408 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:01 pm

KWT wrote:Hard to say surface estimates are higher then that dwg71, they probably will leave it at 45kts but I think we are close to seeing higher winds. I think the main thing is its still moving about 16kts as forecasted.

I'll stand by that, 40Kts would be most accurate IMO, but they will leave at 45KTS.

Agree to disagree. Certainly no RI, yet. keep trucking at 19mph and it wont have much time to intensify. Should slow down though.

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #409 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:40 pm

When is the next Air force flight?

Aric Dunn · #410 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:06 pm

watch for a pretty good drop in pressure as the recon gets in there.. and some increase in winds..

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #411 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:15 pm

I think

Pressure 1001 mililbars
Max flight level winds 64 knots
SMRF 56 knots

#412 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:23 pm

Flight level of 8,000 ft = about an 85% reduction?

HurricaneHunter914 · #413 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:36 pm

I'm thinking the'll find the strongest winds in that convection burst to the south of the center.

#414 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:43 pm

Pressuere down to 1002 mbs at last set.

#415 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:50 pm

This is getting stronger,pressure down to 998 mbs.VDM shortly.

KWT · #416 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:04 pm

Yep central pressure estimated at 998mbs. Probably will come in the VDM at between 1000-1001 IMO but we will see soon.

Aric Dunn · #417 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:08 pm

thats a pretty good pressure drop in a couple hours .. i also noticed a expanse of the TS winds .. im curious on the max winds they will find

#418 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:12 pm

Aparently,they didnt do a VDM at the first pass.I am sure that in the second pass they will.

cheezyWXguy · #419 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:Aparently,they didnt do a VDM at the first pass.I am sure that in the second pass they will.

They likely missed the center to the SE.

#420 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:Aparently,they didnt do a VDM at the first pass.I am sure that in the second pass they will.

In that case the pressure is likely even lower.

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