Dolly- Amateur Maps/Discos/Fcsts/etc

[wxmann_91]

Well, I guess this thread could be devoted to those who want to post long discussions without them being buried in the thread.

Warning: long, image-filled post.

The morphology of the UA environment is something I have seen associated with many big Gulf/Carib storms before. 2005's Emily, Katrina, and Rita experienced the same evolution; an ULL to the west of the storm weakened and moved away and was replaced by a large, sprawling upper anticyclone. I believe the same thing happened to Felix and possibly Dean last year.

Here is a 12Z GFS animation from 0-36 hr at 200mb:



Note how the ULL breaks away and anticyclonic flow begins right away. This seems to be occurring right now. I'm not counting out a strong TS/minimal hurricane by the time it makes landfall on the Yucatan, and Cat 2+ in 48 hr. (Of course if it only scrapes the Yucatan it might be a major by then.)

Now, let's look past 36 hr. Let's look at the progged UA environment in 72 hr.





Pay close attention to three things... 1) the ULL SW of the Big Bend of TX; 2) the big amplifying ULL in the ctrl Caribbean; 3) the 60kt jet at 200mb extending from the Gulf into the Caribbean. The ULL-Anticyclone-ULL pattern is classic for major Cat 4-5 hurricanes, as is the enhanced upward motion associated with the right-entrance region of upper level jets.

Now, compare...

Dean




Felix






And, just for kicks

Wilma (notice the position of the jet relative to the storm)




Katrina (notice the strong upper jet to the S and E)




In summary, while I do not like sounding hype alarms, I am confident that this will undergo RI in the GOM, and I am confident this will reach major hurricane status. The pattern has looked perfect for 3+ days now, and it still does now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102023

[wxmann_91]

eh, could the mods merge the two threads please? Thanks.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

advisory 072008

Bertha becomes extratropical. Cristobal parallels the North Carolina Coast. Dolly becomes a threat to Texas and Mexico. No low off the coast of Africa draws attention.



Far Northern Atlantic Ocean….Extra Tropical Storm Bertha. As of 11am this morning Bertha has finished here 2.5 week trek through the Atlantic Ocean. Extratropically, Bertha may affect Iceland. This is the last mention of Bertha.

Near North Carolina Coastline…East of Morehead City….Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal seems to have hit the highest intensity of 50mph last night and is now back down to 45mph or 50mph in the convection to the southeast of the center of circulation. Cristobal is near 34.9N 75.4W and moving to northeast at 9 mph and will be making landfall or will come very close to Cape Hatteras, NC. Convection does seem to be blooming around and southeast of the center, which may increase the winds as Cristobal reaches Cape Hatteras, but after that Cristobal should begin to deteriorate further into an extratropical cyclone in a few days.

Tropical Storm force winds, as well as, most of the rain are off the coast. TS Force winds may graze Cape Hatteras as Cristobal moves through later this afternoon or tonight. Expect light to moderate and scattered rain and gusty winds if you are in far eastern North Carolina for the next 12 hours. Expect tropical depression type weather in eastern North Carolina except very near Cristobal where Tropical Storm conditions may prevail. There is a TS warning on the Upper NC coastline.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea…Tropical Storm Dolly. Dolly formed this morning when recon found a closed center. Now Dolly has sustained winds of 45mph. Tropical storm force winds have a very large radius already with TS force winds reaching the Yucatan and almost to the western tip of Cuba. She is located near 19.4N 85.3W and is moving northwest at 14mph or toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Dolly should reach the Mexican coastline sometime overnight and reemerge over the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow midday. Dolly may intensify up to 60mph or possibly more before reaching the Mexican coast line.

There is a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire Yucatan coast line and a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City to the Mexican Border. Those in this area should be expecting tropical storm force winds from now until midday tomorrow with heavy rain over Belize and the entire Yucatan Peninsula. Rain may total 4-6” across the Yucatan, in Belize, and in scattered areas of western Cuba. 10” is possible in the mountains of Mexico. Rain totals less than 4” should be expected in the Cayman Islands. Those in the Yucatan should be prepared for a minimal category 1 hurricane.

Africa…Tropical Wave. A tropical wave well inland over western Africa has a well defined signature and may become a tropical cyclone in a few days. This system should be watched as a Cape Verde cyclone starting tomorrow.

Fact789-Jonathan

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 072108 Dolly ed.

Tropical Storm Dolly reaches the Gulf of Mexico and continues to threaten the Mexico and Texas Gulf Coast.



Southern Gulf of Mexico...Tropical Storm Dolly. Tropical Storm Dolly is moving to the WNW or NW at 18mph toward the western Gulf Coast, but is expected to slow. Dolly is packing winds of about 50mph and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall in either northern Mexico or southern Texas. Shear and SST's will allow for a hurricane, possibly up to category 2 stength, to develop before landfall.

Dolly is a very large storm with its cloud shield extending out to about 270mi from Tampa, 300mi from NOLA, and 280mi from Brownsville. Dolly's center is about 475mi from Brownsville. Tropical storm force winds extend out 175mi from the center of Dolly.

The general stucture of Dolly is improving and in a few hours I expect the existing gap of cloudiness on the south side to fill while Dolly moves away from the Yucatan. When that gap fills, the LLC should begin to cover over and then the intensification stage should begin, and it may be rather quick.

Wobbles are still to be expected until a CDO develops. As of right now the LLC seems to be just north of the National Hurricane Center projected path. I still think that Dolly will make landfall as a category 1 or minimal category 2 hurricane on southern texas soil.

A hurricane watch is out from the northern Mexican coastline to Port O'Connor, TX with a Tropical Storm Watch on either side of that. In the US, the TS Watch extends out to San Luis Pass, TX and that may need to be extended up the coast. Everyone in the Hurricane Watch should be preparing for a moderate to maximum Category 1 Hurricane on Wednesday. Those in the TS Watch should be expecting and preparing for tropical storm force winds in the same time frame. Tropical Storm force winds could begin a full day out before landfall. Rain will be very widespead, possibly extending all the way into central LA at the gulf coast with the outer rain bands which could also carry stronger winds.

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By personal request I can do personal forecasts for those in Mexico, Texas, and Lousisiana for Dolly.

I have already had one request for Port Arthur, TX

For Port Arthur, TX: Those here should miss most of the storm, but Tropical Storm Force winds and gusts are possible in the outer rainbands. Rainbands may be moderatly strong. Via the NHC, Port Arthur has a 21% chance of getting TS Force winds.
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Fact789-Jonathan

[PhillyWX]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/07/dolly-discussion-1.html

Full discussion at the above link.

Forecast:

First forecast for Dolly:

(1) Intensity at landfall: 90 mph

(2) Final landfall potential -- highest potential near South Padre Island, with the zone of potential between Corpus Christi and up to 40 miles south of Matamoros.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 072208a Dolly Ed.

Tropical Storm Dolly continues to organize over the southern Gulf of Mexico.



Southwestern Gulf of Mexico....Tropical Storm Dolly. Dolly has continued to organize throughout the night and has taken on a Ms. Pacman appearance with a little dry air on the eastern quadrant. There is a moisture stream coming from the Yucatan Peninsula which should allow for further intensification and for the dry quadrant to fill in.

Winds are holding steady to 50mph. The intensification process seems to have begun. A category 1 is very possible tomorrow and Wednesday before landfall. I believe that 80mph is the most intense Dolly will become. SST's, moisture, shear all are favorable for intensification. Land interaction is the only thing that will hold Dolly down.

Dolly is moving west at 17mph, but should turn back to the wnw. Dolly is also expected to slow down, which I am beginning to lose confidence in. I am now expecting landfall near Brownsville, TX, which is a southerly shift from my last forecast.

Clouds extend extremely far, reaching almost to Brownsville, TX...almost to NOLA....almost to the West Coast of Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are also reaching out 200 miles from the center on the ride semicircle and lesser so on the left side of Dolly. Tropical Storm Force winds may reach the coastline by 5pm tomorrow.

There is a Hurricane Warning in effect from Rio San Fernando, MX to Port O'Connor, TX. Those in this area should be expecting, preparing, and placing their plans into place for a category 1 hurricane. Preparations need to be completed as soon as possible.

There is a Hurricane Watch out from La Pesca, MX to Rio San Fernando. Those in this area should be preparing for Hurricane conditions.

There is a Tropical Storm Warning from Port O' Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX. Those in this area should be expecting tropical storm force winds. They should be preparing for a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. All preparations should be completed as soon as possible.

4+" can be expected across the Hurricane Warning/Tropical Storm Warning area with isolated amounts over a foot. Surge of 5' with higher waves can be expected where Dolly makes landfall.

As I said I expect Dolly to make landfall around Brownsville as a minimal hurricane. I think that landfall will occur around 10am Wednesday.
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As I stated in the last forecast, by personal request I can do personal forecasts for those in Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana for Dolly.

I have already had one request for Port Arthur, TX

For Port Arthur, TX: Those here should miss most of the storm, but Tropical Storm Force gusts are possible in the outer rain bands. Rain bands should produce less that 1". Via the NHC, Port Arthur has a 12% chance of getting TS Force winds. Storm Surge should be less than 1'.
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Fact789-Jonathan

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 072208b

Tropical Storm Dolly intensifies to a maximum Tropical Storm and continues toward the western Gulf Coast.



Western Gulf of Mexico....Tropical Storm Dolly. Overnight Dolly began, and continues, the intensification stage. As of the 2pm advisory from the NHC, Dolly has winds of 70mph. Hurricane Hunters are currently close to finding a hurricane, and I suspect they will do so at the next VDM.

Dolly has slowed since yesterday, which should allow Dolly to intensify up to 85mph. SST's, OHC, and shear should have little roll in inhibiting development. Dolly is moving to the NW, but should take on a more WNW movement as she nears the coast, and furthur a Wrly movement at landfall. Dolly seems to be on track to make landfall between Brownsville and the TX/MX border.

Hurricane Hunters also have found a closed eyewall, which is supported by microwave imagery with the assumption that time carried on the closure. Radar does not have it closed at this time. Organization does continue, and should continue until landfall. Dolly has consilidated with the intensification.

Tropical Storm force winds may reach the Texas and Mexico coastlines tonight. Tropical Storm force winds extend out 160 miles from the eye of Dolly.

Rainfall will be up 6" in most spots around the landfall zone, with up to 15" very close to the landfall zone. Flooding is possible in southern Texas and northern Mexico. Surge of up to 6' is possible on South Padre Island and in the Rio Grande. Higher waves are likely.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Rio San Fernando, MX to Corpus Christi, TX. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect from La Pesca, MX to Rio San Fernando, MX. Those in this area should be expecting and preparing for hurricane force winds and gusts. Hurricane conditions will occur over the next 24 hours. Preparations should be completed immediately. Those in surge prone and flood prone areas should move to higher ground.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Corpus Christi to San Luis Pass, TX. Those in this area should be expecting tropical storm conditions. Preparations for tropical storm force winds should done immediately.

In summary, I expect landfall between the Rio Grande and Brownsville as a moderate Category 1 hurricane around 9am tomorrow morning.
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As I stated in the last forecast, by personal request I can do personal forecasts for those in Mexico and Texas for Dolly.

I have already had one request for Port Arthur, TX

For Port Arthur, TX: Those here should miss most of the storm, but Tropical Storm Force gusts are possible, but unlikely in the outer rain bands. Rain bands should produce about 1". Via the NHC, Port Arthur has a 9% chance of getting TS Force winds. Storm Surge should be less than 1'.
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Northwestern Atlantic....Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal is slowly becoming extratropical as it moves rapidly northeastward into much cooler waters. Cristobal is elongating and slowly weakening. This is likely the last mention of Cristobal.

Far Eastern Atlantic....Invest 97L. There is a strong tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands. If any development does occur, it will be very slow to occur because of coll water temperatures.

Fact789-Jonathan

[PhillyWX]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ion-2.html

Full discussion at the above link:

Final call for Dolly:

Intensity -- 100 mph
Location -- just north of the mouth of the Rio Grande
When -- Wednesday, around noon CT.

[JonathanBelles]

Advisory 072208c Dolly ed.

Hurricane Dolly intensifying before landfall near Brownsville, TX

***Everyone knows the path of Dolly, so if you need a graphic please visit the NHC homepage***

Extreme Western Gulf Of Mexico....Near the Texas/Mexico border offshore....Hurricane Dolly. Hurricane Dolly slowly mowing towards Brownsville, TX where she will bring hurricane force winds and heavy rain. Dolly is packing winds of 80 mph and is moving NW at 9mph. I think at this point we can move past the currents, and move toward the likely effects that the Brownsville area will suffer over the next day.

Tropical storm force winds are already impacting the Brownsville area. Conditions from will will only deteriorate. Dolly seems to continue to slow, which means bad news for Southern Texas and northern Mexico. Winds are the threat now, but rain and water will quickly become the story of the impact of Hurricane Dolly. Those at the landfall area should expect a minimum of 6", with a more likely estimate of 8-12". Some areas in and around the Rio Grand Delta can expect up to 20" especially over the higher elevations. Surge around the border and north of the landfall zone should expected to be about 5-7' with much higher waves. Levees need to be watched on the Rio Grande for the possibility for breakage, which I am beginning to expect. Flooding is going to be the issue in and around the area. This issue will not go away as soon as Dolly pushes west. Rain should begin at just about anytime if it has not already in Brownsville.

Winds cannot be ignored. The city of Brownsville and extreme northeastern Mexico should be expecting hurricane force winds. I expect that Dolly will have winds of 85mph, possibly 90mph just before landfall. Tropical Storm Force winds can be expected as far north as Corpus Christi.

Tornadoes has become a threat during Dolly, as she is an intensifying hurricane. There is a Tornado watch for Deep South Texas. Tornadoes can be expected with Dolly.

All in all, Dolly is moving ashore and will pack winds of up to 90mph with very heavy rain, moderate surge, high waves, and isolated tornadoes. All those the way of Dolly should be in their evacuation area as soon as possible. Landfall should be within an hour of 9am tomorrow morning
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As I stated in the last forecast, by personal request I can do personal forecasts for those in Mexico and Texas for Dolly.

I have already had one request for Port Arthur, TX

For Port Arthur, TX: Those here should miss most of the storm, but 10-20mph sustained winds are possible with gusts up to 25-30mph. Rain bands should produce about 1". Storm Surge should be less than 1' with higher waves.
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Fact789-Jonathan

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 072308 Hurricane DollyStatus

Dolly continues to improve and intensify.

**No graphic at this time**

The eye wall of Dolly is in the late stages of completion with strong convection in all quadrants. Current winds are up to 85mph, and I believe 90 or even 95mph is possible with the next 2 recon flights that arr on the way to Dolly. The last recon flight found pressures of 976mb, which leads me to believe that Dolly will strengthen before reaching the coast possibly to Category 2.

Dolly is slowly moving to the northwest directly toward Brownsville, TX. If this direction continues, the eye of Hurricane Dolly will be over or just to the north of Brownsville 1pm CT.

The eye of Dolly slowly becoming more symmetric while feeder bands continue to wrap around in toward the eyewall. Both Tropical Storm force winds and hurricane force winds will be moving inland in the next few hours. The eye should be clearing out by the time visibles are available.

Rainbands are coming ashore all the way up the Texas Coastline. Conditions will be deteriorating until at least noontime CT.

Tornadoes seem to be very isolated and there havent been any tornadoes in a few hours.

Fact789-Jonathan

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 072308b DollyUpdate

Dolly making landfall near on South Padre Island near Port Isabel.

**no graphic at this time**

Dolly has finally moved inland northeast of Brownsville, TX. Hurricane force winds moving into the northern brownsville area in the western eyewall. Sustained winds of up to 80mph are possible north an northeast of Brownsville. Flooding is already beginning to occur where 11+" has already fell near Port Isabel with up to 14" off the coast. Rainfall of up to 20" is now likely with totals of up to 2.5' not out of the question because of the slow speed of Dolly. Training is also occurring to the north of Dolly near Corpus Christi. Tornadoes are still a threat to the north of Dolly and that will continue to be the case for hours to come. If you end up in the eye, do not go outside because you will be blasted by winds when the eyewall returns. The eye is continuing WNW and will move just north of McAllen, TX over the next 12 hours. Rain will continue all day in deep south texas. Conditions will very gradually improve behind the eastern eyewall It is advised that you stay in your shelter for at least another 12 hours behind the eye. Power is out in spots around the landfall area.

Fact789-Jonathan

[JonathanBelles]

At this time Id like to go back over my forecasts and see how well, or not so well I did in forecasting Dolly.

advisory 072008
Track: The landfall on the Yucatan wasnt too far off, but was a bit south of the actual landfall. Also looking at the final landfall area, I was not to far off three days out being that I was just across the border
Intensity: I was 10mph off of the yucatan landfall intensity.
Rainfall: I do not know how to check rainfall in non-US areas.

Advisory 072108 Dolly ed.
Track:

I still think that Dolly will make landfall as a category 1 or minimal category 2 hurricane on southern texas soil.

This statement was correct two days out, except the forecast graphic was much farther north than the actual landfall.
Intensity: As it did make landfall as a minimal category 2, I was correct.

Advisory 072208a Dolly Ed
Track: This graphic was dead on for landfall track, but not for intertexas track. The text called for Brownsville for the lack of a better geography lesson.
Landfall time: (forecast 10am) I was off by 3 hours with a landfall of 1pm.
Intensity:

I believe that 80mph is the most intense Dolly will become.

I was 20mph off with this forecast.

Advisory 072208b
Track: The graphic was again very close for landfall, but not for intertexas track. The text called for Brownsville for the lack of a better geography lesson.
Landfall Time: (forecast 9am) I was off by 4 hours with a landfall of 1pm.
Intensity:

Dolly has slowed since yesterday, which should allow Dolly to intensify up to 85mph.

I was off by 15mph with this forecast.
Rainfall: (forecast 6" normal, 15" near landfall zone) Up to 18" fell near the track of Dolly via the NWS Brownsville with widespread 4" around the area.

Advisory 072208c Dolly ed.
Track: The forecast called for Brownsville again.
Landfall Time: (forecast 9am) I was off by 4 hours with a landfall of 1pm.
Intensity:

I expect that Dolly will have winds of 85mph, possibly 90mph just before landfall.

I was off by 10 mph.
Rainfall: (forecast min of 6", likely 8-12", possibly 20") there was a larger area of 4". Overall this forecast should have been downed 2" in all brackets.

Advisory 072308 Hurricane DollyStatus
Track and landfall time This forecast (update) called for a landfall around or just north of Brownsville. This was more correct than the last text forecasts. I also called for 1pm, which was correct.
Intensity: (forecast: 90-95mph with the possibility of getting to a cat 2) This was slightly correct as when doing this forecast I was leaning more toward 90mph.

Advisory 072308b DollyUpdate
Rainfall: (forecast: up to 20" with 2.5' not out of the question) Neither of these occurred unless it happened in very localized areas.
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Forecasts for Port Arthur, TX
#1) (forecast: TS winds/gusts possible) Did not occur
#2) (forecast: TS gusts possible, rain < 1".) TS gusts did not occur, rain was 1.63"...both wrong.
#3) (forecast: TS Gusts possible, but unlikely, rain around 1") TS gusts did not occur, rain 1.63"...both off.
#4) (forecast: 10-20W/25-30G likely, rain around 1") The last two predictions were wrong, although winds did reach up to 20mph.
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All in all, track was not all to bad, Intensity was too much on the conservative side, rainfall forecasts were too high.

I learned a few things with this storm. I learn I need to study the geography of the possible landfall points before I make forecasts. I need to be a little less conservative when making intensity forecasts when there are no real intensity inhibitors.

I thoroughly enjoyed tracking Hurricane Dolly with everyone in Storm2k and in the chatroom. This storm allowed me to see a quickly intensifying system with radar. I found the mesos in the eyewall of Dolly very interesting, and something I haven't seen before. I still dont quite understand those mesos. The things that I learned with this system will be invaluable in my future and I thank storm2k for that. I would also like to thank the Hurricane Hunters, the pro meteorologists and moderators for making this a storm to remember.

If anyone would like to add anything to this reanalysis or analyze any of my analysis' feel free to do so. Any and all comments would be greatly appreciated from everyone positive or negative in these forecasts or any forecasts in the future.

Again, I would like to thank everyone who made this storm a storm to remember!