ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[randge]

quote="txwatcher91"]

IMO this will become a strong Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4 before landfall.

That's a bold prediction. your reasoning?

Outlflow is excellent, forward speed SHOULD decrease, higher TCHP ahead, better upper level conditions, more time for the core to organize, and the DMAX tomorrow morning will contribute to this strengthening pretty readily, althought this does not mean it will verify.[/quote]

I saw this a few pages back. Can someone define DMAX for an interested noob? I've been all over the Storm2K glossary and the internet looking for a definition.

Thanx in advance.

[KWT]

honestly if it does get a structurre 140mph is easily do-able, just look at Bret for a great example of what these waters can do...

wxman57, wow thats a very agressive forecast, 100mph is pretty hefty hurricane as it is and even a major hurricane, I've thought all along a cat-2/3 was possible and so who knows!

Also I estimated 295 earlier so good to hear it was pretty close!

[Cat5x]

I don't think it is all "THAT" impressive yet. Yes one little blow up by the center but still its not that big of a blow up and you cant tell if it will continue or flare out.

I think the ULL to the south of it + the inflow coming off of land is killing the souther part of Dolly. If you look at the satellite loops watch the clouds wrapping around the west side as they go to the south west the ULL diverts them around it. So that plus inflow from land killing the bottom part of Dolly.


___________________________________________________________

94L died 3 days ago! It's not going to come back.

[canetracker]

Busy day. Got up at 3:30am and was at work by 5. Left the office at 4:30pm. I see there's a discussion about Dolly's current movement. I just opened up GARP from home and I put my cursor on the 1545Z position, advanced it to 2245Z and measure a heading of 290.7 degrees and a movement of 125nm. That's a forward speed of 17.9 kts.

I get a 3-hr movement toward 293 degrees and 49nm, or 16.3 kts. So it appears to be slowing down. So no evidence of NW motion, just WNW (between 281 deg and 304 deg). NW starts at 305 degrees.

Dolly does look like it's about to enter a period of rapid intensification. Cat 2 looking likely by landfall if the current trend continues, and Cat 3 could be easily attainable. We're going with 100 mph for now. May have to up that tomorrow. Might see an eye peek out by tomorrow night.

Do you think it is starting to slow down due to intensification?

[wxman57]

Do you think it is starting to slow down due to intensification?

No, intensification doesn't produce a slow-down. It's slowing down because steering currents aren't as strong. The weaker wind field aloft can help it to intensify, though.

[Chacor]

What's up with that band of Dolly still east of the Yucatán?

[x-y-no]

I saw this a few pages back. Can someone define DMAX for an interested noob? I've been all over the Storm2K glossary and the internet looking for a definition.

Thanx in advance.

Diurnal maximum. Basically, because the upper troposphere cools radiatively at night while there's a strong resevoir of heat in the ocean surface, you get the strongest convection in the middle night/early morning.

[canetracker]

Do you think it is starting to slow down due to intensification?

No, intensification doesn't produce a slow-down. It's slowing down because steering currents aren't as strong. The weaker wind field aloft can help it to intensify, though.

Thanks for the information. I always look forward to your posts.

[Tireman4]

Thanks Wxman57. Do you think that the Houston-Galveston area will only see rain and some gusty winds (with the current track that Dolly is on)?

[Brent]

What's up with that band of Dolly still east of the Yucatán?

I have no clue. It's strange.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What's up with that band of Dolly still east of the Yucatán?

I have no clue. It's strange.

Dolly is a very large storm- extending 600+ miles on water vapor west-east,
and it is tapping into moisture from the Caribbean, and pulling it
in in order to increase in size/strength.

[x-y-no]

What's up with that band of Dolly still east of the Yucatán?

I have no clue. It's strange.

Tons of heat and moisture in the NW Caribbean.

[KWT]

Its part of the huge inflow and circulation this system has. AFM said earlier that is tyhe inflow and that the western part of the inflow is over the Yucatan hence why this system has only just recently started to flare up and that will only increase with time.

[wxman57]

Thanks Wxman57. Do you think that the Houston-Galveston area will only see rain and some gusty winds (with the current track that Dolly is on)?

I've been watering my lawn today.

[Cyclenall]

It appears that rapid convective increase we were waiting for today is starting to happen. Watch out and hold on to something, I smell RI tonight!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That inflow will bring a very large area of rain/moisture
to much of the central/western gulf, so Dolly
will likely have a HUGE rain shield, and the worst
winds will be located where the NHC says it will.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good.

[leaf blower]

1. Is it slowing down due to intensifying?
2. Is it intensifying due to slowing down?

I guess 2 but obviously there is lots of factors involved so carry on folks, i find this stuff absolutely amazing to watch and love learning about it.

Also be safe if your in the path obvously!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

1. Is it slowing down due to intensifying?
2. Is it intensifying due to slowing down?

I guess 2 but obviously there is lots of factors involved so carry on folks, i find this stuff absolutely amazing to watch and love learning about it.

Also be safe if your in the path obvously!

Intensifying due to slowing down.

[KWT]

Hurakan, Dolly is indeed looking more and more impressive right now, convection is getting a foothold right over the center and convection is still improving on the western side and northern side. I think it will only be a matter of 3-6hrs before convection also starts to flare up on the eastern quadrants.