H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #421 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:39 pm

Next pass through the center I predict...
996 millibars

So far we have not found the winds.

#422 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Next pass through the center I predict...
996 millibars

So far we have not found the winds.

The winds are probably in the NW quad. I predict 993mb at next pass.

#423 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:47 pm

So far the plane was flying at about 750 hPa level (dropping some sondes), now they went down to 950 hPa level. Crossing from SE to NW they will do a fix in half an hour or so.

x-y-no · #424 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:13 pm

Still some stacking problems for Dolly:

Code: Select all

235630 2254N 09148W 9581 00384 0008 +237 +229 184020 021 018 001 00
235700 2255N 09149W 9581 00383 0006 +238 +230 188017 018 015 006 00
235730 2256N 09151W 9581 00381 0004 +236 +225 184015 017 014 006 00
235800 2256N 09153W 9581 00379 0002 +235 +221 167011 012 017 002 03
235830 2257N 09155W 9580 00380 0001 +234 +228 170008 009 020 004 00
235900 2257N 09157W 9579 00380 0001 +232 +229 187004 006 017 005 00
235930 2257N 09159W 9580 00379 0000 +236 +228 312002 004 018 006 00
000000 2258N 09201W 9578 00379 9999 +236 +235 350005 006 023 007 00
000030 2259N 09202W 9580 00377 9997 +237 +237 001007 008 023 008 00
000100 2301N 09203W 9581 00374 9996 +240 +231 012009 009 016 004 00
000130 2302N 09204W 9580 00374 9995 +241 +234 017013 015 021 004 00
000200 2304N 09205W 9580 00373 9994 +241 +234 029019 020 026 002 00

Note that the pressure is dropping all the way to the end of the set, but the winds turned around 6 lines earlier.

#425 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:17 pm

x-y-no wrote:Still some stacking problems for Dolly:

Code: Select all
235630 2254N 09148W 9581 00384 0008 +237 +229 184020 021 018 001 00 235700 2255N 09149W 9581 00383 0006 +238 +230 188017 018 015 006 00 235730 2256N 09151W 9581 00381 0004 +236 +225 184015 017 014 006 00 235800 2256N 09153W 9581 00379 0002 +235 +221 167011 012 017 002 03 235830 2257N 09155W 9580 00380 0001 +234 +228 170008 009 020 004 00 235900 2257N 09157W 9579 00380 0001 +232 +229 187004 006 017 005 00 235930 2257N 09159W 9580 00379 0000 +236 +228 312002 004 018 006 00 000000 2258N 09201W 9578 00379 9999 +236 +235 350005 006 023 007 00 000030 2259N 09202W 9580 00377 9997 +237 +237 001007 008 023 008 00 000100 2301N 09203W 9581 00374 9996 +240 +231 012009 009 016 004 00 000130 2302N 09204W 9580 00374 9995 +241 +234 017013 015 021 004 00 000200 2304N 09205W 9580 00373 9994 +241 +234 029019 020 026 002 00

Note that the pressure is dropping all the way to the end of the set, but the winds turned around 6 lines earlier.

What do you mean by stacking?

#426 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
What do you mean by stacking?

Low level circulation and mid level circulation are not directly over each other.

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #427 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:14 pm

why is recon turning around? Are they headed back to Dolly?

#428 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:17 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:why is recon turning around? Are they headed back to Dolly?

Yes. I said "turning around" but not to go home, to go to Dolly's center.

#429 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:17 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:why is recon turning around? Are they headed back to Dolly?

Must be.

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #430 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:21 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:why is recon turning around? Are they headed back to Dolly?

Yes. I said "turning around" but not to go home, to go to Dolly's center.

I am following the recon in Google earth and I thought they were headed home then they made a sharp turn and started heading back toward Dolly so I was asking if they were going back. I wasn't talking about anything that you had said. I really am not even following the recon in the recon thread here.

#431 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:22 pm

Sorry, is that I used the same words!!!

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #432 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:25 pm

yeah I saw that when I first noticed they had turned I was about to post the recon obs and ask why they had turned and when I went to respond I saw you had already posted about that so I figured I would ask in the discussion thread instead.

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #433 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:29 pm

How do you get the recon info to show on top of the IR images? When I turn the normal cloud overlay on and try to have the recon information on at the same time the recon information ends up being displayed under the cloud layer so you can't see it except for in the cloud breaks.

#434 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:34 pm

If you're using Google Earth Weather, that will happen. You need to download the Atlantic satellite images from our member, HenkL.

http://wxgr.nl/

[ Click on "Software: WXDecoder, WXData, GoogleEarth bestanden" and then "GoogleEarth bestand voor orkaan verkenningsvluchten". There you will find the file. ]

They go directly to GE, you don't need to adjust anything.

Aric Dunn · #435 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:31 pm

obviously some susoect obs there

022030 2312N 09230W 7663 02307 9979 +157 +129 104023 024 029 001 00
022100 2312N 09228W 7664 02306 9980 +155 +134 110024 025 029 002 00
022130 2312N 09226W 7664 02307 9983 +152 +138 116024 025 031 001 00
022200 2312N 09224W 7665 02305 9850 +154 +136 143040 078 030 003 00

hmmmm.. somethings wrong..

#436 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:obviously some susoect obs there

022030 2312N 09230W 7663 02307 9979 +157 +129 104023 024 029 001 00
022100 2312N 09228W 7664 02306 9980 +155 +134 110024 025 029 002 00
022130 2312N 09226W 7664 02307 9983 +152 +138 116024 025 031 001 00
022200 2312N 09224W 7665 02305 9850 +154 +136 143040 078 030 003 00

hmmmm.. somethings wrong..

It does look quite suspect, need another data set.

zaqxsw75050 · #437 Postby **zaqxsw75050** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:40 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 220232
NOAA3 1204A DOLLY HDOB 37 20080722
022230 2312N 09221W 7665 02308 9984 +154 +140 129025 026 031 001 00
022300 2312N 09219W 7663 02310 9983 +158 +135 129025 026 030 001 00
022330 2312N 09217W 7665 02310 9983 +162 +124 135028 031 034 001 00
022400 2312N 09215W 7650 02330 9988 +157 +122 138033 034 037 000 00
022430 2312N 09213W 7614 02370 9992 +152 +118 135032 033 042 001 00
022500 2312N 09211W 7608 02379 9992 +154 +119 141037 038 047 001 00
022530 2312N 09209W 7609 02380 9993 +155 +121 146039 040 046 001 00
022600 2312N 09207W 7609 02382 9995 +150 +144 152042 042 045 006 00
022630 2312N 09205W 7609 02383 9999 +148 +147 156040 042 043 007 00
022700 2312N 09203W 7611 02385 0007 +145 +142 153039 042 041 002 00
022730 2312N 09201W 7608 02393 0017 +143 +125 153045 046 040 002 00
022800 2312N 09158W 7609 02394 0021 +143 +114 155045 045 040 000 00
022830 2312N 09156W 7611 02394 0022 +144 +120 158044 045 039 000 00
022900 2312N 09154W 7610 02398 0029 +140 +120 158043 044 039 001 00
022930 2312N 09152W 7607 02406 0035 +138 +114 156044 044 038 000 00
023000 2312N 09150W 7608 02406 0037 +139 +108 154044 045 036 001 00
023030 2312N 09148W 7609 02406 0034 +143 +106 153043 044 036 003 00
023100 2312N 09146W 7610 02406 0038 +140 +111 155043 044 037 001 00
023130 2312N 09144W 7610 02408 0040 +140 +106 155041 041 036 001 00
023200 2312N 09142W 7608 02410 0043 +139 +102 154041 041 036 001 00

should be a bad ob

Stratosphere747 · #438 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:34 pm

Whats the ETA on the mission that just started?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #439 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:37 pm

I did not do to good with the winds last time, but any ways here is my new prediction on what recon will find.

Max flight level winds 48 knots
Smrf 46 knots
Pressure 996 millibars

#440 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:42 pm

My predictions for this flight:

Flight level - 55 kt
SFMR - 59 kt
Pressure - 989mb

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