ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Sanibel]

It does have that look doesn't it?

[O Town]

She needs to close up a bit more on the NE section, but I think she's already a hurricane myself. Just waiting for her to blink.

Another few frames and I think she will be blinking.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll bet pressure drops quickly before winds respond. Usually seems to be that way, big drop in pressure, then the winds catch up.

[Frank P]

latest GOES IR loop sure hints of a developing eye feature, missing piece is convection on the north wall... looks pretty darn good watching how this has developed over the past several hours... appears to be on track

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[canegrl04]

The ULL cut up and into Dolly wedging off that piece left behind.

Ya we may have to watch that piece of energy dolly is leaving behind.

The point is that the waters Dolly is traveling over a sufficient for a category 5 hurricane.

I kind of disagree with you. It doesnt have enough time to do that. This isnt wilma, its not September and it sure as heck isnt gonna get that big. Forecast calls for maybe a cat 2

If it bombs to a Cat - 5 I will permaban myself from this forum. There is no way.

One thing I have learned over the years,is NEVER assume anything about a hurricane once it is the GOM

[Sanibel]

Well, it's time to say it. Snapping right into an eye looks like rapid intensification.

[stevetampa33614]

This will be an exciting pass though the center for recon.

Are they going to center? At 7pm Last time they didnt go there. Was kinda wondering why.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, it's time to say it. Snapping right into an eye looks like rapid intensification.

I agree. From the latest satellite and images and favorable conditions and
very warm waters and high oceanic heat content, and with that
structure, rapid intensification is well under way. Looks like
a 75 mph Category 1 on that satellite right now.

[stevetampa33614]

rapid intensification.

I dont ever remember this happening more than once before 2003. Seems like it happens with every other storm now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, that is a eye starting to develop. It has reds trying to form over the northwest quad, but it still needs to close off that northeast quad.

If it was not for the recon I would say 60 knots.

[bostonseminole]

yeah, I would say they need one last pass before the 11:00 pm advisory

[ALhurricane]

Hate to be the killjoy here, but it simply looks like convection drying up in the middle of the storm, rather than an eye like feature. I don't think the inner core has organized sufficiently for such a feature to develop right now.

[Category 5]

Bertha was only a 3 I think.

I think it was a 4 but this is off topic. The point is that the waters Dolly is traveling over a sufficient for a category 5 hurricane.

But Dolly is not going to become a category 5 Hurricane.

[stevetampa33614]

Hate to be the killjoy here, but it simply looks like convection drying up in the middle of the storm, rather than an eye like feature. I don't think the inner core has organized sufficiently for such a feature to develop right now.

Hardly, i dont think anyone wants a Category 12 with 800mph winds. There only fascinating to watch out in the atlantic. A hurricane is no Joke and it disrupts alot of lives. Tropical storms are fun tho

We had a great time during Barry

[Frank P]

latest IR pix.. if ~22.6n and ~92.4 is the center of this system then I think perhaps we have an eye, if not then I really confused as to what I'm seeing right now

[Stephanie]

Hate to be the killjoy here, but it simply looks like convection drying up in the middle of the storm, rather than an eye like feature. I don't think the inner core has organized sufficiently for such a feature to develop right now.

Is that because of the opening on her north side?

[Sanibel]

I'm turning off the computer and coming back in two hours. I have a feeling we'll know by then.

[stevetampa33614]

latest IR pix.. if ~22.6n and ~92.4 is the center of this system then I think perhaps we have an eye, if not then I really confused as to what I'm seeing right now

Maybe. I can kinda see it too but it could just be a dead spot. We really need a recon.

Showing up on Infrared.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[RL3AO]

Looks like dry air to me.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2008AL04_4KMIRIMG_200807220155.GIF

But I reserve judgement until recon moves through.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like dry air to me.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2008AL04_4KMIRIMG_200807220155.GIF

But I reserve judgement until recon moves through.

94L has made me look pretty bad. I will just stop posting for a few hours before it makes me look worst.