ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Hockey007]

2312N 09232W 7663 02306 9981 +154 +130 095024

OK...you have easterly winds at 24 kts at 23.2N and 92.5W...

The warmest part of the "eye" everyone is getting geeked up about is at 23.3 and 92.3

What's wrong with this picture?

The image isn't showing in your post. I can't tell you what's wrong with the picture if there is nothing there.

the point is that if you are south of the center then winds would be coming in from the west rather than the east.

[Squarethecircle]

Not only that, if you were that close to an eye there really shouldn't be 24 knot winds there at all, should there?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm so confused right now, is recon having problems or something?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

They never went through the center. weakest winds were 20mph and yet the pressure was still 998 on more then one obs! That means the pressure is lower then 998mb

[Air Force Met]

The image isn't showing in your post. I can't tell you what's wrong with the picture if there is nothing there.

Uhhhhh...its a figure of speech.

[Duddy]

Sat proves that winds are from the West at those coordinates. I guess there is something wrong with the obs.

[Frank P]

2312N 09232W 7663 02306 9981 +154 +130 095024

OK...you have easterly winds at 24 kts at 23.2N and 92.5W...

The warmest part of the "eye" everyone is getting geeked up about is at 23.3 and 92.3

What's wrong with this picture?

The image isn't showing in your post. I can't tell you what's wrong with the picture if there is nothing there.

the point is that if you are south of the center then winds would be coming in from the west rather than the east.

wouldn't you be WSW of the center and the winds s/b out of the NW.. I had to draw me a map...

[Duddy]

The image isn't showing in your post. I can't tell you what's wrong with the picture if there is nothing there.

Uhhhhh...its a figure of speech.

I know, I was just pulling your chain.

[Air Force Met]

Sat proves that winds are from the West at those coordinates. I guess there is something wrong with the obs.

Please explain how the satellite proves the winds are from the west
And please explain how and all the HDOBS are wrong...

[Ed Mahmoud]

new warm spot to get geeked about West of old false eye...

I doubt it is an eye either, to be honest...

[RL3AO]

There might be something wrong with the HDOBs. The winds never moved from the east dispite move though the center.

[Duddy]

Sat proves that winds are from the West at those coordinates. I guess there is something wrong with the obs.

Please explain how the satellite proves the winds are from the west
And please explain how and all the HDOBS are wrong...

Well, the clouds are moving East there. I imagine the winds will blow the same direction. Unless the Obs took a weird reading.

[funster]

new warm spot to get geeked about West of old false eye...

I doubt it is an eye either, to be honest...

Dolly is Mrs. Pac-Man.

[Javlin]

Sat proves that winds are from the West at those coordinates. I guess there is something wrong with the obs.

Please explain how the satellite proves the winds are from the west
And please explain how and all the HDOBS are wrong...

AFMET you cannot this late in life(us)train a bunch of numb nuts like us.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Do any of the pro-mets know if the 18Z and 0Z soundings, and the G-IV data found the ridge protecting almost of all of Texas as strong, or maybe even stronger, than expected when the 12Z and 18Z models were run?


Basically a cloudless sky in IAH, light winds, and temps hit 99ºF ( 37º C ), suggesting pretty manly ridging overhead. Wondering if ridge might be even stronger than forecast, and thus the apparent track further West of official track.

[Duddy]

Do any of the pro-mets know if the 18Z and 0Z soundings, and the G-IV data found the ridge protecting almost of all of Texas as strong, or maybe even stronger, than expected when the 12Z and 18Z models were run?


Basically a cloudless sky in IAH, light winds, and temps hit 99ºF ( 37º C ), suggesting pretty manly ridging overhead. Wondering if ridge might be even stronger than forecast, and thus the apparent track further West of official track.

Yeah, I nearly melted walking from my car to Cafe Express at Uptown Park.

[Brent]

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Air Force Met]

Well, the clouds are moving East there. I imagine the winds will blow the same direction. Unless the Obs took a weird reading.

Those clouds on IR are at b/w 12K meters - 14K meters above the sfc of the Earth. Recon is flying b/w 2300-2400 meters.

Two totally different levels...

Plus...the new advisory is out showing it is still moving to the west and is at 23.1 / 92.8...and again the feature on satellite is at 23.3/92.3.

Edit:

From the discussion:

DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER.

[Duddy]

WTNT44 KNHC 220254
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

DOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AGAINST THE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING.
DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER. DOLLY IS ALSO
MOVING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY. GIVEN THESE CHANGES...STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT YET IDEAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
DOLLY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO BECOME
BETTER CONNECTED JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOLLY
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD EDDY IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...WHEN
THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN IT IS
NOW...AND THIS ENCOUNTER COULD PROVIDE A DAMPER ON THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE IN THE LAST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE
BOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT DOLLY VERY LIKELY WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE...BUT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
DID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...AND ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY
WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A PAIR OF
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH
THE GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 23.1N 92.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 25.6N 96.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 26.2N 98.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the nhc, it won't become a major hurricane. I think about 65-70 knots at landfall. If it doe's more then that then I'm wrong, so be it. I don't care. Things just don't look that favorable for more as of right now.