ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Wx_Warrior]

"...odds will not become a major hurricane.".....DUCK

Notice a minor shift below Brownsville @ landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dr. Jeff Masters makes a bold forecast:

"Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. A Category 2 hurricane now looks unlikely, and I put the chances of Dolly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) at 2%."

I think that is a very reasonable and smart forecast.

[JPmia]

I have to say that I am enjoying Franklin's discussions. Don't recall this kind of frankness in their discussions since that other guy Stewart. Go NHC!

[HurricaneHunter914]

*sigh* Looks like rain for my area might be just a few showers on Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

[Air Force Met]

"...odds will not become a major hurricane.".....DUCK

Notice a minor shift below Brownsville @ landfall.

They don't really have a choice but to shift it south. The 6 hr motion is 270. Its moving west at a fast pace and not showing any immediate signs of changing that motion.

[Duddy]

If Dolly theoretically reached Major status tomorrow, would that have a drstic effect on her path? Or would it still be Brownsville?

I'm just curious if strength would play a role in the track.

[TexWx]

West and fast.

Looks like maybe tomorrow evening?

[CrazyC83]

They never went through the center. weakest winds were 20mph and yet the pressure was still 998 on more then one obs! That means the pressure is lower then 998mb

If that is the case, the pressure is probably 996mb. (1mb drop for every 10 kt)

[Wx_Warrior]

Air Force, just kind of a cynical statement due to some on here claiming the models would be shifting north at this time....

[cheezyWXguy]

West and fast.

Looks like maybe tomorrow evening?

NO!!! Why dont yall ever trust the NHC people? A significant slowdown is going to happen in the next 12 hours.

[ROCK]

Air Force, just kind of a cynical statement due to some on here claiming the models would be shifting north at this time....

not necessary IMO.....

[Rainband]

West and fast.

Looks like maybe tomorrow evening?

NO!!! Why dont yall ever trust the NHC people? A significant slowdown is going to happen in the next 12 hours.

I agree the NHC is the NHC for a reason.

[Rainband]

NE quad is worst anyway. TX will certainly pay a big price to ride this Dolly.

???

[JonathanBelles]

why isnt the Storm Surge probability graphic updating?

[mattpetre]

why isnt the Storm Surge probability graphic updating?

I don't know, but I will say one thing. I think it was a tiny bit irresponsible when TWC put up a graphic of areas that are most prone to storm surge. When my wife came into the living room and saw Red all over the LA/TX border and west she just about lost it. "OMG, it's coming straight our way or Louisiana now!" I had to explain that it was just a map of potential surge if a storm were to hit that area. Gotta be extra careful once the storm gets this close to landfall.

[Rainband]

NE quad is worst anyway. TX will certainly pay a big price to ride this Dolly.

???

Why the ?...even if it comes up on the MX tip, the NE quad would be toward TX

Because it's forecast to be a Cat 1. Not a real Big price if that verifies.

[Texas Snowman]

The current NHC path would bring really tough conditions into the RGV with a strike at the mouth of the RG.

That would leave South Padre in the right front quadrant. Whatever Dolly is going to throw in there, SPI and Port Isabel appear primed - at the moment - to catch the brunt of landfall.

And if the storm does slow as forecast, the rains that fall on the RGV and come back down the RG could be particularly troublesome.

I don't think this has to become a major hurricane - which I think is still entirely possible - for a whole lot of problems to result.

It may very well be that Dolly is remembered for what happened after landfall more than what happened when and where the center crosses the coast.

[mattpetre]

Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[soonertwister]

Has Brownsville ever experienced a Cat 1?

If it hits King County we'll never hear of it again.