ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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ROCK
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Re:

#5961 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:31 pm

mattpetre wrote:Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html



now that is an interesting find....
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5962 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:34 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I would also agree that the chances of this getting to Cat 3 are pretty slim. Cat 1 is most likely with Cat 2 not being out of the realm. My rationale is that its moving a little quicker than was originally forecast plus its probably going to run over a cold eddy(as per NHC discussion) before landfall.

In the mean time the forward motion will likely slow some as the ridge to the north weakens. Dolly is over warm water now with somewhat favorable upper winds so some slow steady strengthening is possible tonight and tuesday. The intensity at landfall will be determined by how quickly (or slowly) Dollys winds react to the more favorable conditions tonight and more importantly how she reacts to the cooler waters she will encounter before landfall. Winds in a larger stronger cyclone may take longer to wind down when the cyclone encounters unfavorable conditions. Right now im guessing 90 mph at landfall
Last edited by george_r_1961 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5963 Postby TheRingo » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:34 pm

Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5964 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:37 pm

TheRingo wrote:Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?


yes, but it's not coming here
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Re: Re:

#5965 Postby mattpetre » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:37 pm

ROCK wrote:
mattpetre wrote:Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html



now that is an interesting find....


Any guesses on timeframes about this ridge movement? I have been watching the steering currents most of the day and I was supposing that this would cause a more NW turn by around 2 or 3am tonight. Am I in the right ballpark?
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5966 Postby mattpetre » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:38 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
TheRingo wrote:Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?


yes, but it's not coming here


Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.
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Re: Re:

#5967 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:39 pm

mattpetre wrote:
ROCK wrote:
mattpetre wrote:Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html



now that is an interesting find....


Any guesses on timeframes about this ridge movement? I have been watching the steering currents most of the day and I was supposing that this would cause a more NW turn by around 2 or 3am tonight. Am I in the right ballpark?




if she slows tonight then that could be the case....but I aint staying up to 2 am to find out... :lol:
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5968 Postby TheRingo » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:39 pm

mattpetre wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
TheRingo wrote:Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?


yes, but it's not coming here


Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.


let me rephrase that. South texas.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5969 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:40 pm

mattpetre wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
TheRingo wrote:Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?


yes, but it's not coming here


Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.



strange!! and AL is not? :lol:
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#5970 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:43 pm

The key now is to watch the winds catch up with the pressure. It fell at least 6 mb (probably more like 8-9 mb) this evening but the winds have not changed.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5971 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:44 pm

TheRingo wrote:let me rephrase that. South texas.



LOL.... South Texas includes Brownsville, South Padre and areas along the Rio Grand Valley.

Southeast TX is Houston, Galveston, Beaumont area.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5972 Postby mattpetre » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:46 pm

ROCK wrote:
mattpetre wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
yes, but it's not coming here


Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.



strange!! and AL is not? :lol:


Not quite as bad, but it is strange in its own ways.

Back to Dolly. Looks like a bit more NW shift already beginning.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5973 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:48 pm

GFS rolling in.... Brownsville...does not look like the trof weakens the high much...
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5974 Postby TheRingo » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:49 pm

soonertwister wrote:Has Brownsville ever experienced a Cat 1? ;)

If it hits King County we'll never hear of it again.


http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/brownsville.htm
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#5975 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:49 pm

Image

Time to go to sleep.
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#5976 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:56 pm

Looks like this makes landfall in 24 hr. I don't see this slowing down.

There are two cardinal rules to TC forecasting that I overlooked: 1) models breaking down ridges too fast; 2) models killing ULL's too quickly. These two conditions will likely preclude a major hurricane.
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#5977 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:59 pm

The NHC never said Dolly will become a major hurricane. In fact, it's forecast to only become a C1, with maybe a chance at a C2.

As ragged as Dolly may seem, she's getting her act together.

-Andrew92
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Re:

#5978 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:01 pm

Andrew92 wrote:The NHC never said Dolly will become a major hurricane. In fact, it's forecast to only become a C1, with maybe a chance at a C2.

As ragged as Dolly may seem, she's getting her act together.

-Andrew92

Yes, the NHC did not say it would. They were going conservative (which is working out attm). But many believed, including me and numerous pros, that it would have optimal conditions beginning tonight and especially tomorrow-Wednesday which had the potential to allow Dolly to become a Cat 3+.
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#5979 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:04 pm

That TUTT is still in the extreme SW BOC just working
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5980 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:08 pm

The latest

Image
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