H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[kurtpage]

000
URNT12 KNHC 220601
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/05:27:20Z
B. 23 deg 10 min N
093 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1419 m
D. 40 kt
E. 053 deg 46 nm
F. 129 deg 054 kt
G. 052 deg 047 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1526 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 1304A DOLLY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 05:12:50 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 0542Z

[brunota2003]

Yeah, the winds just do not seem quite high enough yet for a 55 or 60 knot storm...using a 90% reduction, that 54 knot flight level wind would equal 48.6 knots at the surface.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Hmm...did you try turning the Sat overlay on first, and then turning the Recon overlay on?

He needs to turn off the weather layer in Google Earth.

In the "Layers" pane...
Primary Database > Weather > Clouds
Make sure that is unchecked.

[KWT]

NOAA plane now getting close to the CDO, then we will see the real higher winds occur and see what sort of system we actually have.

[cycloneye]

1001 mbs and still plane has not made it to the center.

[HURAKAN]

We should know soon how low the pressure is.

[BigA]

53 mph surface wind speed and they have barely entered the CDO. Will be interesting.

[cycloneye]

995 mbs and not at center yet.

[KWT]

Got flight level winds upto 59kts already and still heading towards the center where winds wil lbe higher still, SFMR is also at 51kts so this should be very interesting!
Also yep pressure is likely below 995mbs so this has been strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

Taking really long to realease the latest obs. We should have received tham by 7:33 AM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 221139
NOAA2 1504A DOLLY HDOB 17 20080722
113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000 03
113030 2336N 09408W 6960 03066 9908 +116 +099 329006 008 025 001 03
113100 2334N 09409W 6961 03066 9911 +116 +097 315010 011 028 002 00
113130 2333N 09411W 6961 03071 9917 +114 +096 313014 016 039 004 00
113200 2331N 09412W 6965 03068 9919 +113 +105 321017 021 051 007 00
113230 2329N 09414W 6953 03083 9922 +109 +109 325027 036 050 024 03
113300 2328N 09415W 6961 03074 9931 +104 +104 314037 039 050 012 03
113330 2326N 09416W 6961 03080 9949 +096 +096 310036 037 047 002 00
113400 2325N 09418W 6952 03093 9953 +095 +095 310034 036 040 000 03
113430 2323N 09419W 6960 03089 9956 +097 +097 312031 033 039 000 00
113500 2322N 09421W 6958 03097 9960 +098 +098 308028 029 038 000 00
113530 2320N 09422W 6957 03100 9966 +097 +097 306030 031 040 000 00
113600 2319N 09423W 6958 03104 9968 +099 +099 302032 032 039 001 00
113630 2317N 09425W 6952 03112 9963 +104 +104 306032 034 040 002 00
113700 2315N 09426W 6957 03110 9967 +105 +103 308029 030 035 000 00
113730 2314N 09428W 6957 03111 9966 +108 +098 305028 029 037 001 00
113800 2312N 09429W 6959 03112 9969 +108 +089 306029 031 034 002 00
113830 2311N 09430W 6957 03117 9979 +102 +091 305032 033 040 005 03
113900 2309N 09432W 6944 03134 9979 +101 +098 308034 037 044 008 00
113930 2308N 09433W 6910 03177 9980 +100 +099 313034 036 048 005 00


The center obs were not released. This one says 990.4 mb.

[Normandy]

So would I be too bullish by estimating the lowest central pressure is probably around 986-987 mbs? I assume the lowest pressure was in those last obs.

[WmE]

So would I be too bullish by estimating the lowest central pressure is probably around 986-987 mbs? I assume the lowest pressure was in those last obs.

No I was assuming the exactly same thing. Pressure wise it is nearing hurrican strength now IMHO, I don't know about the winds.

[TheEuropean]

I think, this would be too low, pressure should be around 990 mb.

113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000 03

Only 4 kts with 990,4 mb

[KWT]

I think actually recon got pretty close to the lowest pressure, VDM will probably show about 990mbs...thats a relaly big drop since the last recon, pretty impressive stuff really!

[littlevince]

Dropsondes surface at:

[americanrebel]

Dropsondes surface at:

What about wind speeds from those dropsondes?

[O Town]

The highest winds found so far are I believe are 75mph. Not sure how to do the math to translate into surface wind.


Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 11:36Z

Significant Wind Levels...

Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed

998mb (Surface)
110° (from the ESE)
43 knots (49 mph)

989mb
110° (from the ESE)
55 knots (63 mph)

964mb
115° (from the ESE)
64 knots (74 mph)

957mb
115° (from the ESE)
60 knots (69 mph)

950mb
125° (from the SE)
65 knots (75 mph)

929mb
125° (from the SE)
57 knots (66 mph)

851mb
115° (from the ESE)
47 knots (54 mph)

696mb
115° (from the ESE)
55 knots (63 mph)

The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.

[Thunder44]

I think, this would be too low, pressure should be around 990 mb.

113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000 03

Only 4 kts with 990,4 mb

Pressure in the latest advisory is 993mb. Winds increased to 65mph.

[littlevince]

What about wind speeds from those dropsondes?

From NE to SW:







Maps generated by GE overlays from tropicalatlantic.com