ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon should be flying through the center with the next obs so we should be getting the lowest pressure here with in the next couple of minutes. so far the lowest is 1000mb with a 22kt wind

[americanrebel]

Do we really need the sarcasm? I was just making an observation.

I wasn't being sarcastic! Seriously, you made an awesome call! ^_^

I'm not a sarcastic person. I consider it to be VERY rude.

Well thank you then, I appreciate it, I wasn't trying to be rude. I find sarcasm very RUDE also.

[Hockey007]

Remember that it is just one model, if the other models start to turn out the same way then we can start to worry about it.

[Texas Snowman]

I was just looking back at the 11 p.m. discussion and I found something that I guess I raced by previously.

THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
DID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...AND ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY
WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.

So the NHC seems bullish on it slowing down.

I guess we'll have to wait and see if it does slow down and the forecast for the ridge to break down verifies.

But if it does, I've maintained all along - in my completely unofficial .02 cents capacity, of course - that I think it will make a turn for the central Tx coast somewhere between Corpus and Port O'C and will be a Cat 2 to possibly a low end Cat 3 at landfall.

I still think that has a reasonable chance to happen although plenty of others disagree and there's a very good chance I'll be eating crow.

Guess I'm a JB wannabe, make a stand and then stick with it.

[jhamps10]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

AND it should be noted that it has a VERY VERY good track record on it's forecast verifing in many situations including snow, and severe weather events. really this would be the first time looking at it in a tropical situation, but I do have to give it a bit of weight based on it's track record on other events.

what model is this?

this is based off of the WRF-Nmm model, the site where this loop comes from is a non-operational run that the SPC looks at for severe weather purposes mostly. as I said in my earlier post it has a pretty high rep from the severe storm community, it is a output that was really started last year. it is considered an expermential product though.

here is their main website where it has different products available: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

lowest pressure is 999mb

[paintplaye]

The more it slows the greater chance that it goes north.

[Cat5x]

Dolly makes landfall...


well her outer bands at least... http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar/50/ South east louisiana seeing the first squal line, all be it a weak one but first on the US.

[Smurfwicked]

Wow... when this forum dies, it dies hard

Im still here, and I'm still watching, its about of a hour and a half away from the time that has started showing improvements the last 2 prior nites so thats what I'm waiting for

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

-80C cloud tops developing RIGHT over the center now!

[americanrebel]

Just waiting for some more interesting information to come out.

[weatherSnoop]

No new recon atm and no new vdm

I must hit the hay...gn all

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon is on its way back toward the center so you should get some interesting information soon!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Highest so far 44kt with a pressure of 1006mb

Lowest pressure so far 999.8 with a 25kt wind

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pressure is now down to 997mb with a 9kt wind

[DIwestender]

I guess I'll break the monotony and ask a newbie question. Exactly why does a strong storm "feel the effect of a weakness in a ridge" and turn poleward (and a weaker one does not)?

I've been reading since around Hurricane Dean and I thought I was just interested in hurricanes when they affected me but I've since found myself watching most of them---thus, I am up after two watching a hurricane expected to make landfall 1000 miles away!

Thanks in advance.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I have been watching them since 2005 but still have much to learn! lol But to answer your question to the best that I can The stronger a storm is the more vertically stacked it is the high up the thunderstorms go. So it feels the effects of the upper level winds so those are what steer it. The less vertically stacked the storm is the lower level winds steer the system. thats as much as I know.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Dolly has slowed WAY down! In about the last 2 hours Dolly has moved about 14 miles so thats about 7mph for the past 2 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Dolly has slowed WAY down! In about the last 2 hours Dolly has moved about 14 miles so thats about 7mph for the past 2 hours

if the center fixes are accurate so 12 miles distance that would be about 6 mph

let me look
post the old vortex and the new one

[HarlequinBoy]